Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 22 May 2017

Gold prices were higher on Friday and notched the largest weekly gain since mid-April as political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration pressured the dollar lower

Gold prices were higher on Friday and notched the largest weekly gain since mid-April as political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration pressured the dollar lower, boosting demand for the precious metal.Gold for June delivery closed up 0.18% at $1,255.07 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, the precious metal was up 2.06%. The dollar came under renewed selling pressure on Friday following reports that a senior White House adviser is a person of interest in the investigation into alleged Russian interference in November’s presidential election. The Justice Department on Wednesday appointed a former FBI director as special counsel to investigate possible coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia. Investor sentiment has been hit by fears that the U.S. political system could become engulfed by crisis, preventing lawmakers from pushing through tax or spending reforms. A weaker dollar tends to boost prices for gold, which is denominated in the U.S. currency. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver rose 1.24% to $16.87 a troy ounce late Friday, while copper climbed 2.19% to $2.58 a pound In the week ahead, investors will be looking at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for fresh indications on the possible timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Revised data on U.S. first quarter growth and private sector survey data out of the euro zone will also be in focus.
Gold demand in Asia was mostly subdued this week as buyers stayed on the sidelines due to a rebound in bullion prices. The international benchmark spot gold XAU= gained nearly 2 percent this week, on track for its biggest weekly gain since mid-April as political turbulence in the United States triggered safe-haven demand. Bullion prices have risen about 3 percent since hitting an eight-week low of $ 1,213.81 on May 9. "When compared with last year, physical demand in Asia has not picked up for the same period in 2017. There could be some uplift if gold prices drop another $ 20-$ 30 per ounce," a Hong Kong-based precious metals refiner said. In China, the world's top consumer of gold, demand for the metal fell after improving in the previous three weeks. Premiums in China fell by about $5 an ounce to $10, traders said. Consumers in China could return if benchmark prices dip to $ 1,220-$ 1,225. Premiums in Hong Kong were priced at about 60 cents to $ 1 an ounce, almost unchanged from the week before. In India, the second-largest consumer of the metal, gold demand this week remained tepid. "Wedding season is coming to an end. Footfalls in showrooms were going down drastically in last few days.Local market gold futures MAUc1 were trading around 28,600 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, up nearly 2 percent from last week.
Gold prices were a bit lower in European trade on Thursday, but stayed near the highest level in two weeks as investors kept an eye on fresh political developments in the U.S. amid uncertainty over the future of President Donald Trump. Comex gold futures shed around $ 3.00, or about 0.3%, to $ 1,255.29 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,255.51. Prices of the yellow metal jumped to an overnight peak of $ 1,263.20, the most since May 1. Gold notched a sixth-straight winning session on Wednesday as investors fretted over the latest news coming out of Washington. U.S. Justice Department Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed former FBI director Robert Mueller as special counsel to take over the investigation of Russia's alleged interference in the U.S. presidential election on Wednesday. That followed a report on Tuesday that said President Trump asked then-FBI Director James Comey to shut down an investigation into the actions of former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn.The US Dollar index , Which measures the greenback ‘s strength against a trade- weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 97.61 in London morning trade.

Gold prices inched higher in European trade on Tuesday, trying for its fifth-straight winning session as signs of slowing economic activity in the U.S. saw investors temper expectations for more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.Comex gold futures rose around $ 5.00, or about 0.4%, to $ 1,235.10 a troy ounce by 2:50AM ET . Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,235.30. The yellow metal notched a fourth-straight winning session on Monday after rising to its highest since May 4 at $ 1,237.40, following the release of underwhelming U.S. manufacturing data. The New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions contracted for the first time in seven months in May, as new orders and shipments turned negative.
The NY Fed said on Monday that its general business conditions index fell to -1.0 this month from a reading of 5.2 in April. Analysts had expected the index to inch up to 7.0 in May.
On the index, a reading above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. Later on Tuesday, the precious metal could take cues from U.S. data on housing starts and building permits, as well as industrial production figures, as investors look for further indications on the health of the world’s largest economy.Markets are pricing in around a 74% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a more than one-week low of 98.53 in London morning trade.
Meanwhile, investors were also mulling the potential economic policy impact of a Washington Post report that U.S. President Donald Trump divulged highly classified information during his meeting with Russian officials last week. Market participants were also keeping a wary eye on developments in North Korea, which successfully conducted a newly developed mid-to-long range missile test on Sunday aimed at verifying the capability to carry a "large scale heavy nuclear warhead."
The United Nations Security Council is due to meet on Tuesday to discuss North Korea's latest missile launch, which was requested by the U.S. and allies South Korea and Japan. Also on the Comex, silver futures gained 12.5 cents, or about 0.8%, to $16.72 a troy ounce. Gold rose as U.S. political turmoil, a missile test by North Korea and a worldwide cyber attack fueled demand for safe-haven assets, while weaker than expected U.S. data pushed the dollar lower, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. gold XAU= was up 0.2 percent at $ 1,230.15 an ounce by 2:11 p.m. EDT, on track for a third day of gains after hitting an eight-week low of $ 1,213.81 last week. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.2 percent at $ 1,230. "Continued unpredictability of the Trump administration, North Korea flexing its muscles again and weaker data coming from the U.S. has helped bring back some interest. than expected U.S. data has reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate increases by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, though traders still expect a rise in June. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar . DXY and push bond yields up, putting pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Gold prices pared gains as the U.S. dollar came off its lows and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields bounced up from a 1-1/2-week low. "Unless there is more stronger data, more than two rate hikes are not very likely in 2017. Money managers' net longs in COMEX gold fell to the lowest in six-weeks in the week ending May 9. $ 34/oz decline in gold prices during the week ended 9 May was accompanied by the second-largest weekly decline in gross long positions. Gold demand, meanwhile, has strengthened in China and India, supporting prices. other precious metals, silver XAG= was up 1.1 percent at $ 16.63 an ounce, after money managers cut their net long stance in silver to the smallest since February 2016 from a record high last month.


AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS.

Monday, May 22

Eurogroup finance ministers are to hold regularly scheduled talks in Brussels.

Financial markets in Canada are to remain closed for a holiday.

Tuesday, May 23

The euro zone is to publish survey data on private sector business activity.
The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and several other officials are to
testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament's Treasury Committee.
Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.
The U.S. is to publish a report on new home sales.

Wednesday, May 24

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Madrid.
The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
The U.S. is to report on existing home sales.

The Fed is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

Thursday, May 25

The UK is to publish revised data on first quarter growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment.
The U.S. is to publish the weekly report in jobless claims.

Friday, May 26

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on durable goods orders and a
revised data on first quarter growth and consumer sentiment.

ENERGY
Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by reports that an OPEC-led supply cut would not only be extended into next year but might also be deepened in order to tightening the market and prop up prices. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 25 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close at $ 53.86 per barrel at 0035 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were back above $ 50 per barrel, trading at $ 50.62, up 29 cents or 0.6 percent. Both benchmarks have risen more than 10 percent from their May lows early in the month. Prices have been lifted by expectations that a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day would be extended to March 2018, instead of covering just the first half of this year to March 2018. Crude oil prices continued to trend higher as the market becomes increasingly confident that OPEC members will commit to a rollover in the production cut agreement. The option of deepening the production cut was also being discussed ahead of a meeting of OPEC and its allies in Vienna on May 25 to decide their output policy.
Oil futures settled at a four-week high on Friday, with prices scoring a weekly gain of more than 5% amid optimism that key producers will extend output cuts beyond an agreed-on June deadline when they meet later this month. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude June contract tacked on 98 cents, or around 2%, to end at $50.33 a barrel by close of trade Friday, the first time it has settled above $50 in more than four weeks. It touched the highest since April 21 at $ 50.53 earlier in the session. The U.S. benchmark rose $ 2.49, or about 5%, on the week, the second straight weekly advance. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery added $1.10 to settle at $ 53.61 a barrel by close of trade, after hitting a daily peak of $53.82, a level not seen since April 19.For the week, London-traded Brent futures recorded a gain of $ 2.77, or roughly 5.2%. Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing countries will meet in Vienna on May 25 to decide whether to extend their current production agreement beyond a June 30-deadline. In November last year, OPEC and 11 other Non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30. Most market analysts expect the oil cartel to extend output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018, instead of six months as previously expected.Oil was higher Friday after a seesaw session overnight as the market swayed between supply glut concerns and hopes for an extension of an output cut deal by major producers. U.S. crude was up 62 cents, or 1.26%, at $ 49.97 at 07:30 ET after touching $ 50. Brent added 63 cents, or 1.20%, to $ 53.14. On the immediate front, investors are looking to Baker Hughes U.S. rig count data later in the session. Forecasts for U.S. output this year have been raised in the wake of a significant pick-up in U.S. drilling activity. That has raised the ante for OPEC and non-OPEC producers to extend a deal to cut 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half to re-balance the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia have backed a nine-month extension of the deal to March. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are due to meet on May 25.
Oil futures rose on Friday to the highest in nearly a month on growing optimism that big producing countries will extend output cuts to curb a persistent glut in crude, with key benchmarks heading for a second week of gains. Brent crude LCOc1 was up 34 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $52.85 at 0358 GMT. The contract earlier rose to the highest since April 21 and is on track for a 4 percent climb this week, its second week of gains. U.S. crude oil CLc1 was up 38 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $ 49.73 a barrel, highest since April 26. The contract is heading for a weekly increase of 4 percent. Since the beginning of March, crude prices have swung from over $56 a barrel to under $47 as market participants were divided over the impact of rising output from the United States versus production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other countries, including Russia.But market watchers are growing more confident that OPEC, Russia and other big producers will extend cuts of almost 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of March 2018. U.S. producers are not party to any agreements capping production.As with other markets, concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's agenda amidst investigations in Washington faded into the background. "With the political turmoil easing in the U.S. overnight, the market will return to the fundamental drivers,Oil was lower Thursday as the market weighed supply concerns against efforts by major producers to curb production.U.S. crude was off 54 cents, or 1.10%, at $ 48.53 at 08:00 ET. Brent shed 55 cents, or 1.05%, to $ 51.66. Oil gave up gains Wednesday posted on the Energy Information Administration reporting a fall of 1.75 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories. The EIA was forecast to report a drop of 2.36 million barrels.
The focus is now on a meeting on May 25 of OPEC and non-OPEC producers on a possible extension of agreed output cuts. The Saudi and Russian energy ministers Monday lent support for a nine-month extension in the output deal to the end of March.OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. The focus is also on U.S. drilling activity with the latest weekly Baker Hughes rig count due out Friday.Oil prices dipped on Thursday, weighed down by plentiful supplies despite an ongoing effort led by OPEC to cut production in order to tighten the market and prop up prices.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 21 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close at $ 52 per barrel at 0148 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $48.88, down 19 cents, or 0.4 percent. The downward correction partly reversed gains from the previous session when prices rose on the back of a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and a slight dip in American production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell 1.8 million barrels for the week to May 12, to 520.8 million barrels. the drawdown was smaller than expected, and many traders say there is still more oil in the system than the market can absorb. Oil prices fell 1 percent on Wednesday after data showed an increase in U.S. crude inventories, stoking concerns that markets remain oversupplied despite efforts by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut output.Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 53 cents, or 1 percent, from their last close at $ 51.13 per barrel at 0028 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 48.10, down 57 cents, or 1.1 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 882,000 barrels in the week ending May 12 to 523.4 million, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.4 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. rally in crude oil prices that started after news that OPEC was ready to prolong its production cut agreement stalled overnight, as the market awaits evidence of rebalancing. The fall in prices came just days after Saudi Arabia and Russia said on Monday that they agreed the need for a 1.8 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday that commercial oil inventories in industrialised countries rose by 24.1 million barrels in the first quarter of the year, a time during which the OPEC-led production cut was already in place. this, analysts said that an extension of the supply cut was important. "The agreement by OPEC to extend cuts into 2018 is critical," said AB Bernstein in a note. “OPEC cuts will nevertheless lead to accelerated inventory drawdowns in 2H17, but the return to normalized inventories will ... drag into 2018," it added.

Oil Tuesday held onto overnight gains posted on Saudi and Russian backing for an extension of an output cut deal. U.S. crude was up 31 cents, or 0.63 %, at $ 49.16 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude added 33 cents, or 0.64%, to $ 52.15. The Saudi and Russian energy ministers Monday lent support for a Nine-month extension of the output deal to the end of March. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. A decision on the possible extension of the deal is expected at a meeting on May 25. The market remains awash in inventories despite the cuts as the U.S. and other producers increase their output. American Petroleum Institute stockpile data are due out later in the session. These will be followed Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration inventories report. The forecast is for a draw of 2.283 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks in the latest week.
The IEA Tuesday said the oil market was almost balanced in the first quarter. "Re-balancing is essentially here, and, in the short-term, is accelerating, the IEA said in its monthly report. The agency said if OPEC output is maintained at 31.8 mb/d in Q2 this would imply a stock draw of 700,000 barrels. But the International Energy Agency said inventories might not have returned to five-year average at the end of the year.
Saudi Arabia and Russia Monday backed a 9-month extension of an output cut deal to March next year. A decision on the possible extension is expected at a meeting on May 25. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by 1.8 mb/d in the first half. The IEA noted increased output by the U.S. and possible higher production by Libya and Nigeria: The Paris-based agency left its demand growth forecast for this year unchanged at 1.3 mb/d. Brent crude was up 0.25% at $51.95 at 06:00 ET.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, extending gains after a joint announcement by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia to push for an extension of supply cuts until the end of March 2018 gained traction with other suppliers. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $ 52.07 per barrel as of 0612 GMT, up 25 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 49.09 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.5 percent. In order to rein in a glut, Saudi Arabia and Russia said on Monday that they agreed to the need for a 1.8 million barrels per day crude supply cut to be extended for nine months, until the end of March 2018. there is no final deal yet despite the pledge by Saudi Arabia - the world's top exporter and de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - and top producer Russia, as the 12 remaining OPEC members and other producers participating in the cuts have to agree to the extension during a meeting on May 25.

Oil jumped by over 3% Monday as Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on the need to rein in output for another nine months. U.S. crude was up $1.54, or 3.22% at $49.38 at 08:15 ET. Brent crude added $1.57, or 3.09%, to $52.41. Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak issued a statement saying the output cut deal should be extended to March of next year. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. Russia and Saudi Arabia said an extension of the deal was needed to reduce stockpiles and balance prices. A formal decision on the extension is expected at a meeting on May 25. Baker Hughes Friday reported a rise of nine in the U.S. rig count to 712, the highest since April 2015. Greater U.S. shale activity has eroded the impact of output cuts by major producers. Oil surges on Saudi/Russian backing for output cut extension.

AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS.

Tuesday, May 23
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, May 24
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, May 25
Major global oil producers are due to meet in Vienna in order to decide on extending their current output-cut deal.
The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, May 26
Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.


BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :

Trading Ideas:
Copper -
Copper trading range for the day is 353.5-371.3.
Copper recovered on rupee weakness while uncertainty about Donald Trump's future undermined expectations of a boost to infrastructure spending in US.
China and U.S. domestic policy will dominate the path of least resistance for copper and other base metals.
Weaker April economic data from China, which accounts for nearly half of global consumption of industrial metals.

Aluminium -
Aluminium trading range for the day is 121.7-126.7.
Aluminium gained despite political uncertainty in the US hit hopes that President Donald Trump would be able to boost infrastructure spending.
Base metals got support as Indian rupee weakened over 1.1%, its steepest fall in 21-month against the US dollar.
US Commerce Department launched an investigation into whether aluminium imports from China and elsewhere were compromising US national security.

Nickel -
Nickel trading range for the day is 575.5-605.9.
Nickel prices gained more that 1.5% despite investors shunned risk and bet on rising supply from Indonesia and Philippines.
Metals prices found little support from data that showed Chinese real-estate prices climbed in April.
Demand for industrial metals expected to slow in China amid renewed focus on consumption

BASE METAL

Nickel futures fall 0.40% on global cues, profit-booking. - ( 19 - May - 2017 )

Nickel futures traded 0.40 per cent lower at Rs 597.50 per kg today as participants reduced exposure amid weak global cues and profit-booking. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in June fell Rs 2.40, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 597.50 per kg, in a business turnover of 128 lots. Also, the metal for delivery in May was trading down Rs 2.30, or 0.39 per cent lower, at Rs 591.90 per kg in 907 lots. Market analysts said, apart from profit-booking by participants, a weak trend in select base metals overseas, weighed on nickel futures.

Copper futures rise on spot demand - ( 19 - May - 2017 )

Copper futures traded 0.21 per cent higher at Rs 365.30 per kg today as speculators enlarged positions amid firming trend at the domestic spot markets. However, weakness in metal overseas, capped the gains. In futures trade, copper for delivery in June was trading higher by 75 paise, or 0.21 per cent, at Rs 365.30 per kg in a business turnover of 710 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month August edged up by 25 paise, or 0.07 per cent, at Rs 368.80 per kg in 2 lots.

? ZINC - ( 22 - May - 2017 )
China is likely to step up imports of refined zinc from this month, industry sources said on Friday, as dwindling global supplies of concentrate hit local output of the metal, used to galvanise steel. China's refined zinc output marked its lowest in more than two years in April as the impact from the closure of major mines in places such as Australia and Ireland stifled the concentrate supplies China relies on to churn out finished metal.

Lead futures down 0.66 per cent hurt by muted demand ( 18 - May - 2017 ) -
Lead prices were trading down 0.66 per cent to Rs 134.55 per kg amid muted domestic demand in futures trading today as participants trimmed exposure. Lead for delivery in May declined by 90 paise, or 0.66 per cent, to Rs 134.55 per kg in a business turnover of 190 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June shed 85 paise, or 0.63 per cent, to Rs 135.10 per kg in six lots. Marketmen said the fall in lead futures was due to a weak trend at the domestic markets owing to muted demand from consuming industries, particularly, battery-makers.

Copper futures fall 0.61 per cent on low demand ( 18 - May - 2017 ) -
Copper prices declined by 0.61 per cent to Rs 360.95 per kg in futures trade today as participants were indulged in trimming positions amid subdued spot demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in June shed Rs 2.20, or 0.61 per cent, to Rs 360.95 per kg in a business turnover of 680 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August traded lower by Rs 1.95, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 364.95 per kg with a business of volume of two lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures trade to cutting short of positions by participants, triggered by a weak trend at the spot markets due to muted demand.

Zinc futures soften 0.45 per cent as participants trim position ( 18 - May - 2017 )
Zinc futures traded 0.45 per cent lower at Rs 164.20 per kg today as speculators trimmed positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals at the spot market. Zinc for delivery in June declined by 75 paise, or 0.45 per cent, to Rs 164.20 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of five lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month softened by 55 paise, or 0.33 per cent, to Rs 163.80 per kg in 249 lots. Analysts said the weakness in zinc at futures trade was mostly attributed to a weak trend in select base metals at the domestic spot markets on sluggish demand from consuming industries.


( 12 - MAY - 2017 )

? COPPER -
Continuing its rising streak for the third straight day, copper prices strengthened by 0.25 per cent to Rs 363.30 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in building up positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on improved demand At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in June traded higher by 90 paise, or 0.25 per cent, to Rs 363.30 per kg, in a business turnover of 26 lots. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in far-month August edged up by 40 paise, or 0.11 per cent, to Rs 359.25 per kg in 3,353 lots. Analysts said expanding of positions by traders amid firm trend at spot market on rising demand from consuming industries, mainly kept copper prices higher at futures trade.


( 12 - MAY - 2017 )

? ALUMINIUM
Aluminium prices were up by 0.29 per cent to Rs 121.20 per kg in futures trading today as speculators built up fresh positions amid upsurge in demand at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in June edged up higher by 35 paise, or 0.29 per cent to Rs 121.20 per kg in business turnover of 40 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in May contracts traded higher by 30 paise, or 0.25 per cent to Rs 121.15 per kg in 599 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants due to pick up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly led to rise in aluminium prices at futures trade.


NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF AGRI MARKET -
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET -

22 - May - 2017 -

US wheat rose nearly 1 percent on Monday as forecasts for heavy rains across a key US growing region pushed the grain to a two-week high.

FUNDAMENTALS

The most active wheat futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade rose 0.9 per cent to $ 4.39 a bushel by 0105 GM, near the session high of $ 4.39-1/4 a bushel - the highest since May 8. Wheat closed up 2.2 per cent on Friday. The most active soybean futures rose 0.4 per cent to $9.57 a bushel, having firmed 0.9 per cent on Friday. The most active corn futures rose 0.3 per cent to $3.73-1/2 a bushel, having gained 1.8 per cent in the previous session. Wheat draws support as forecasts for rains across the United States stoke fears of production losses. Heavy rains also support corn, which has edged higher amid fears of further planting delays. Soybeans and corn were under pressure last week amid a slump in the Brazilian real, which saw farmers rush to sell their record supplies.

Ample stocks drag down wheat futures by 0.48% ( 19 - May - 2017 )

Wheat prices fell 0.48 per cent to Rs 1,651 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators cut down their positions, triggered by ample stocks on increased supplies from growing regions at spot markets. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in July declined by Rs 8, or 0.48 per cent to Rs 1,651 per quintal with an open interest of 4,720 lots. Likewise, the wheat for delivery in June contracts traded lower by Rs 7, or 0.43 per cent to Rs 1,624 per quintal in 20,250 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stocks positions on increased arrivals from producing belts in the physical market mainly attributed the fall in wheat prices at futures trade.

? CARDAMOM 19 - May - 2017 -
Cardamom remained weak and prices fell by another 1.12 per cent to Rs 1,004 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in reducing bets, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand. Besides, ample stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in June eased by Rs 11.40, or 1.12 per cent, to Rs 1,004 per kg in a business turnover of 29 lots.

Mentha oil futures maintain downtrend on sluggish demand - ( 19- May - 2017 )

Extending a falling streak for the fourth straight day, mentha oil prices fell further by 0.62 per cent to Rs 917.10 per kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in reducing positions, driven by easing demand in the spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing belts put pressure on mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in June declined by Rs 5.70, or 0.62 per cent, to Rs 917.10 per kg in a business turnover of 67 lots.


? PALM OIL - ( 19- May - 2017 ) -
Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday evening, tracking weaker soya oil on the Chicago Board of Trade and other related edible oils on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange. The benchmark palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.6% at 2,626 ringgit ($607.03) a tonne by the close. Most commodities, including US soya oil, were dragged down by a negative US Dow Jones index, said a Kuala Lumpur-based futures trader. The Dow recorded its biggest one-day fall since September on reports that US President Trump tried to interfere with a federal investigation.

Crude palm oil futures remain up on rising demand ( 18 - May - 2017 )

Crude palm oil prices gained another 0.22 per cent to Rs 502 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged their positions amid strong demand at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in June month rose by Rs 1.10, or 0.22 per cent to Rs 502 per 10 kg in business turnover of 84 lots. On a similar lines, the oil for delivery in May month contracts edged up by 70 paise, or 0.14 per cent to Rs 514.50 per 10 kg in 85 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants on the back of rising demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing belts, mainly kept crude palm oil prices firm at futures trade.


Cardamom futures down 1.37% on low demand ( 18 - May - 2017 ) -

Cardamom prices moved down by 1.37 per cent to Rs 1,010 per kg in futures trading today as speculators cut their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on easing demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in June month fell by Rs 14, or 1.37 per cent to Rs 1,010 per kg in business turnover of 87 lots. Likewise, the spice for delivery in far-month September contracts traded lower by Rs 10.90, or 1.27 per cent to Rs 849 per kg in 2 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants, triggered by muted demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks position on increased supplies from producing belts, mainly kept cardamom prices lower at futures trade.


Mentha oil futures extend losses, slide 0.62% on tepid demand ( 18 - May - 2017 ) -

Continuing its losing streak for the third day, mentha oil prices fell 0.62 per cent to Rs 958.50 per kg in futures market today as speculators trimmed their positions amid weak demand at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in May month drifted lower by Rs 6, or 0.62 per cent to Rs 958.50 per kg in business turnover of 126 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in June contracts shed Rs 3.40, or 0.36 per cent to Rs 930.30 per kg in 13 lots.

? JEERA - ( 15- May - 2017 ) -

Jeera prices drifted lower by 2.56 per cent to Rs 18,070 per quintal in futures market today as speculators cut down positions, tracking a subdued trend at spot market on tepid demand. Besides, ample stocks position on increased supplies from the major growing regions in Gujarat and Rajasthan fuelled the downtrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in June dropped by Rs 475, or 2.56 per cent to Rs 18,070 per quintal with an open interest of 17,424 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in May was trading lower by Rs 450, or 2.44 per cent to Rs 18,015 per quintal in 258 lots. Analysts said, offloading of positions by participants owing to slackened demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position, mainly kept pressure on jeera prices at futures trade.

? CORIANDER ( 15 - May - 2017 ) -

Coriander prices fell by 3.08 per cent to Rs 5,504 per quintal in futures trade today as participants trimmed positions, triggered by muted domestic as well as export demand at the spot market. Furthermore, expectations of good crop production from major growing belts fuelled the downtrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, coriander prices for delivery in June fell by Rs 175, or 3.08 per cent, to Rs 5,504 per quintal with an open interest of 58,160 lots. Likewise, the spice for delivery in May traded lower by Rs 169, or 3.01 per cent, to Rs 5,443 per quintal in 2,440 lots. Market analysts attributed the fall in coriander futures to lower demand in the physical market against adequate stocks position on increased supplies from producing regions.

? CRUDE PALM OIL - ( 15 - May - 2017 ) -
Amid rising domestic demand and restricted supplies from producing regions, crude palm oil prices were up by 0.50 per cent to Rs 503.60 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in May rose Rs 2.50, or 0.50 per cent to Rs 503.60 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 76 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in June traded higher by Rs 1.70, or 0.35 per cent to Rs 493.20 per 10 kg in 48 lots.

Analysts said fresh positions created by participants on the back of strong demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on fall in arrivals from producing belts, mainly led to the rise in crude palm oil prices at futures trade.


( May - 12 - 2017 )

? SUGAR
Raw sugar futures on ICE edged higher on Friday as more positive technicals lent support, while cocoa slipped as the market shrugged off signs of further unrest in top producer Ivory Coast.

SUGAR

July raw sugar SBc1 rose 0.12 cents, or 0.77 percent, to 15.75 cents per lb by 1124 GMT, regaining some ground after falling 1.3 percent in the previous session on chart resistance.
Dealers said technicals were more supportive on Friday but the market's inability to break out of the recent range had stifled appetite to test upward potential.
"The market is trying to push higher. However, sentiment remains uncertain and we could consolidate in today's session," said Geordie Wilkes, analyst at Sucden Financial.
Participants were also monitoring weather risk, though chances for disruptions from an El Nino weather event were seen as fading.
August white sugar LSUc1 was up $2.10, or 0.47 percent, at $449.70 a tonne.
Five major chocolate and candy companies announced a joint commitment on Thursday to reduce calories in many sweets sold on the U.S. market. July London cocoa LCCc2 fell 7 pounds, or 0.46 percent, to 1,523 pounds a tonne, while July New York cocoa CCc2 was down $9, or 0.46 percent, at $1,943 a tonne.
The market shrugged off further unrest in top producer Ivory Coast, where gunfire erupted in several locations on Friday, including the military headquarters in Abidjan, as anger spread after some leaders of a group of mutineers decided to drop demands for bonuses. "The market has heard these stories before and, realistically, nothing is really happening," said one dealer. "For now, it's not affecting the flow of cocoa. That's really what we have to see to get a reaction from the market."
Enduring worries about ample supplies were also reinforced by broadly crop-friendly weather in the country, dealers said.
A strike by dockers at Cameroon's main port in Douala on Friday blocked exports of cocoa and coffee, a port spokesman told Reuters. The country is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. July robusta coffee LRCc2 fell $1, or 0.05 percent, to$1,983 a tonne.
July arabica coffee KCc2 was off 0.45 cents, or 0.34 percent, at $1.338 per lb.
Colombia is expected to produce at least 15 million 60kg sacks of coffee next year, against 14.7 million this year, Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas said on Thursday.

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