Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 22 May 2017

Last week, the Indian Benchmark Index Nifty made new record high of 9451, the index opened at 9311 and made low of 9298 and finally closed at 9401

Last week, the Indian Benchmark Index Nifty made new record high of 9451, the index opened at 9311 and made low of 9298 and finally closed at 9401. On Monday Trading Session 50 shares index Nifty opened on a Strong note Up by 33 points or 0.35 per cent at 9433 & traded in a positive strong note in whole week on the back of positive Global and Domestic cues. Market were celebrating 3rd Anniversary of “ Modinomics” , The Nifty Index has given return of 31% in last 3 years since Modi Government has come into power. The recent high of Nifty is 9532 which is also its all time high. Market got a boost from IMD’s announcement that monsoon is going to hit southern Kerala cost on 30th May, 2 day in advance. But it now seems that IMD is now sticking to its earlier projection of normal monsoon (96% of LPA) instead of above normal monsoon this year (100-106% of LPA). Earnings need to catch up with the expectations of the market, which is looking for 20-25% EPS growth over FY: 17-18; so far Q4FY17 earnings were mixed and going forward, 25% CAGR for FY-18 may also be looking little difficult, considering various factors such as GST disruption and tepid private investments & subdued trend of consumer sentiment/consumption. Also, India’s issue of twin balance sheet Banking NPA & stressed corporate balance sheet may be a problem. Indian market may initially celebrate for favourable GST rates for FMCG, capital goods and coal. Thus, Whatever be the lower GST rates from the current effective tax rate has to be passed on to the consumers and thus it may spur more consumers spending amid lower rates for FMCG products. But, lower GST rates may also invite de-stocking of the products and a temporary disruption thereby for confusion over input tax credit transmission mechanism. Market may Consolidate for Some days Amid mix Q4 FY 17 report card so far and Probability of a GST disruption in the Month Ahead , with Just some day’s left for its implementation. Time and Price Action Suggest that Nifty need to Sustain over 9500 level for any strength towards 9580-9600 in near Term. On the Other side Sustaining below 9500 may drag the Index toward 9420-9360 in near term.
BANK NIFTY : - Last week Bank Nifty too made a record high of 22978, the index opened at 22678 and made low of 22578 and closed at 22672. On Friday Fitch has submitted its report on Prospects for Bad Loan Clean-Up at Indian Banks Improving. According to the report banks are likely to be affected adversely on amendments made by RBI to tackle Bad Loans for Indian Banks. This move will be favorable in long term but in short term provisioning cost will shoot-up and have pressure on banks profit; this may also lead to breaching of minimum capital requirements for weaker banks. Nifty Bank gave a rally of 122 points from its previous day close and made a high of 22944 and closed at 22929. PNB up by 4.41%, Bank of India by 3.45%, SBI by 2.02% were among the top movers in the Banking Index on Tuesday trading sessions. stressed assets resolution may be a big challenge for the Indian economy and despite NPA ordinance, it may be very tough to find buyers of such huge stressed assets. Bank Nifty traded in Positive note throughout week trading session. Bank Nifty need to Sustain over 22700 level for Further Up move toward 22850-22960. On the Flip side Sustaining below 22700 level we may witness some downward move for next week trading session.


India's GDP growth to rise to 7.9% by December 2017: Report - The Indian economy is entering a "productive growth phase" and real GDP growth is likely to rise to 7.9 per cent by December driven by favourable external demand, improving corporate balance sheets and private capex recovery, says a report. Productive growth phase is characterised as a period of improving growth while macro stability remains in check and typically sets the stage for a sustained growth cycle. According to the research note by Morgan Stanley, growth is likely to inflect higher, accelerating by almost 1 per cent point over the next three quarters. Morgan Stanley expects growth to pick up from the second quarter of this year onwards and accelerate by almost a full percentage point to 7.9 per cent by Dec ember 2017 from the current run rate of 7 per cent. The Morgan Stanley said in a report that The growth cycle will inflect higher, starting from second second quarter of 2017, Supported by three factors - External demand environment will be favourable for growth, corporate balance sheet repair is already underway and private capital expenditure Recovery will be Underway b 2018.

Higher capex bumped up states' deficits to 12-year high to 3.6 per cent - Countering RBI's argument that the higher fiscal deficits of the states in FY16 was due to Uday bonds that bailed out ailing electricity discoms, an India Ratings report has linked it to higher capex by the states. According to the State Finances Report 2016-17 released by the Reserve Bank of India last Friday, excluding Uday bonds, the combined fiscal deficits of the states would have been 2.7 per cent of GDP. But including this, deficits jumped to a 12- year high of 3.6 percent, which is the highest since FY 2004 when it had stood at 4.2 percent. "Though states' fiscal deficits rose to the highest since FY04 at 3.6 percent in FY16, the expansion of state budgets have been mainly due to higher capital expenditure, which is a long-term credit positive for the states," India Ratings said in a note.

India's April trade deficit widens to $ 13.25 billion: Government - Strong Performance by petroleum, engineering and textiles sectors pushed up India's exports growth by 19.77 per cent to USD 24.63 billion in April. However, trade deficit also witnessed about three-fold increase to USD 13.24 billion mainly on account of sharp jump in gold and crude oil imports during the month. In continuation with the double digit growth exhibited by exports during March, exports during April have shown growth of 19.77 per cent," the commerce ministry said in a statement. The country's imports too jumped 49.07 per cent to USD 37.88 billion last month from USD 25.4 billion in April 2016.

Demonetisation effect transitory, says UN expert - The demonetisation policy is not expected to have a long term impact on domestic demand in India, which is projected to clock a 7.9 per cent growth in fiscal 2018, a senior UN economic official has said. "We do not really see that the dynamics of India have shifted very much," Dawn Holland, Senior Economic Affairs Officer, Global Economic Monitoring Unit, Development Policy and Analysis Division in the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, told reporters here yesterday. The official was responding to a question by PTI on a UN report released yesterday which revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2017 but predicted an increased 7.9 per cent GDP growth next year.

Rates on services will determine impact on inflation - The multi-tiered GST may not be inflationary as far as goods are concerned as 81% of them will be taxed at 18% or less with mass-consumption items at the lower end of the bands. However, the overall impact on retail inflation will be determined by the tax on services, economists said. These rates are set to be decided on Friday. GST won’t impact wholesale price inflation as it doesn't include indirect taxes. "With the current set of tax rates, the government has tried to tackle inflation to a large extent and it looks like inflation on goods will not be there," said CARE Ratings chief economist Madan Sabnavis.

GDP numbers likely to be revised higher: Nomura - The new series for industrial production and wholesale prices suggest that the GDP numbers for financial year 2016-17 could be revised up from 6.7 per cent to 7.4 per cent, says a Nomura report. The Central Statistical Office revised India's wholesale price index and industrial production series last week, changing the base year to 2011-12 (from 2004-05). Industrial production is an input in estimating gross value added for the unorganised manufacturing sector, while WPI is used as a deflator for deriving real GVA values from nominal data. "We estimate that GVA growth will be revised up to 8.2 per cent (from 7.8 per cent) for 2015-16 and to 7.4 per cent (from 6.7 per cent) for 2016-17," Nomura said in a research note.

In a bid for a transparent tax administration as well as to enable citizen engagement for creating a tax compliant society, the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has launched the Portal of Operation Clean Money, said an official release by the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday.

As per the report tabled by Ernst & Young, India has secured the 2nd position in this year’s 'Renewable energy country attractiveness index'. Industry friendly policies laid by the government and increasingly attractive economics changed the entire climate of the renewable energy sector of India, revealed the report by EY.

The Data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry , exports rose by 19.77 % to USD 24.63 billion from USD 20.56 billion worth of merchandise shipped out during the same period in the previous year. The Data also Revealed that the Exports grew for the 8th Straight month, whereas a significant increase in imports was also witnessed during April.

The Centre will come out with a new metro rail policy for future projects, in line with the Government-Approved national policy on transit-oriented development, Union Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu said while briefing the media in Chennai on Sunday.

India and Chile have entered into another milestone in their trade relations as an agreement on the expansion of India-Chile Preferential Trade Agreement which was signed on 6th September 2016 is finally being implemented on 16th May 2017. The Union Cabinet had approved the expansion of PTA in April 2016, said an official release by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The government has recently changed the base year for calculating the various macroeconomic indicators to 2011-12 from earlier base year of 2004-05. The Index of Industrial Production gives an indicator of various sectors in an economy such as mining, electricity and manufacturing. The index is compiled and published by the Central Statistical Organisation on monthly basis.

After the GST council meeting, the analysts have been rushing to find out the impacts of the GST rates in various sectors. The FMCG sector is the first sector that comes to investor’s mind while finding out the impacts of GST.

The top decision-making body in the Goods and Services Tax, the GST council, has fixed the tax framework for GST which is likely to roll out from July 1. The majority of items are kept under the tax slab of 18%. The council has finalised the tax rates for around 1211 items on Thursday.

The Union Cabinet chaired by prime minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday took several decisions right from approving multilateral convention to implement tax treaty-related measures to implementing Maternity Benefits Program on Pan-India basis, among others. The government approved the signing of the multilateral convention to implement tax treaty-related measures to prevent base erosion and profit shifting by India.

The Kotak Mahindra bank Limited on Thursday informed that the board of directors has given its approval to increase the ceiling limit on the total shareholding of Foreign Institutional Investors/ Foreign Portfolio Investors from the current limit of 42% to 43%, as per Exchange filing.

JK Lakshmi Cement Limited reported a 19.4% decline in standalone net profit at Rs. 20.85 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2017, hurt by an increase in input costs.

A diversified financial services group, Bajaj Finserv Limited has recently posted the financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2017. The company’s consolidated gross revenue grew by 16% on a Y-o-Y basis for Q4 FY17. Its consolidated profit before tax, consolidated profit after tax and standalone net worth has grown at the rates of 14%, 3% and 3% respectively.

The Dilip Buildcon Limited on Wednesday posted its Q4 earnings. Company’s net profit jumped 222.5% to Rs 195.77 crore on 28.8% growth in net sales to Rs 1732.30 crore in Q4 March 2017 over Q4 March 2016.

Dabur India Limited, on Wednesday, announced that it has acquired South-African based, D&A Cosmetics Proprietary Limited and Atlanta Body and Health Products Proprietary Limited. The company has acquired D&A Cosmetic for South African Rand 47,940,000 ( around 23.50 crore ) and will acquire 100% its shares.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Limited, in a exchange filing on Wednesday announced that it has received approval from the USFDA to launch Doxorubicin Hydrochloride Liposome Injection for intravenous use in the US market.

JSW steel Limited reported it’s quarterly results standalone revenue for the quarter came in at Rs. 15532.9 crore, registering 65.9% yoy increase. EBITDA for the quarter rose by 43.3% yoy to Rs. 3542.4 crore with a corresponding margin contraction of 361 bps. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 22.8%. This margin contraction was aided by adverse movements in inventories. The Unadjusted PAT for the quarter came in at Rs. 1003.4 crore, yoy increase of 173.3%.

Hindustan Unilever's Q4FY17 standalone results for the quarter registered a beat on street estimates. Net profit for the quarter came in 6.9 % higher than the estimated figure of Rs. 1107 crore. EBITDA for the quarter came in 6 % higher than the estimated figure of Rs. 1557 crore. And lastly, revenue for the quarter came in line with the estimated figure of Rs. 8145 crore.

L&T Finance Holdings Limited on Wednesday announced that the Committee of Directors of the company at its meeting held on 17 May 2017 has approved the allotment of 6,38,20,990 (six crore thirty-eight lakhs twenty thousand nine hundred and ninety) equity shares to BC Asia Growth Investments pursuant to conversion of warrants issued on 18 December 2015, on a preferential basis, as per exchange filing.

United Bank of India on Thursday reported a net profit of Rs. 73.56 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2017, as against a net loss of Rs. 413.04 crore for the same quarter in the previous year, as per exchange filing.

Strides Shasun Limited on Thursday informed that it has signed agreements with Vivimed labs to set up two joint venture companies. Both will be 50:50 joint venture companies. One of the companies in India will own the US FDA approved formulation facility in Alathur, Chennai, and the other company in Singapore will own certain approved ANDAs and product pipeline, as per exchange filing.

IDBI Bank Limited on Thursday tanked by 7% as it announced its quarterly earnings result. It is trading at Rs. 70.30 per share, down by 7.38 % at 15:06 hours IST. It hit a high of Rs. 75.40 and a low of Rs 69.45 so far during the day. The bank reported a standalone net loss of Rs. 3199 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2017, as against a standalone net loss of Rs. 1735.81 crore for the same quarter in the previous year, as per Exchange filing.

Bajaj Auto Limited Q4FY17 consolidated results for the quarter were largely in-line with street estimates. Revenue for the quarter came in 3.3 % higher than the estimated figure of Rs. 4740 crore. EBITDA for the quarter came in 2.4 % lower than the estimated figure of Rs. 928 crore. And lastly, net profit for the quarter came in 6.4 % higher than the estimated figure of Rs. 810 crore.

Domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research said the banking system has Rs 7.7 trillion of unrecognised stressed loans in corporate and SME sector and expects around 35 per cent of them to slip into the NPA category in the next 12-18 months. Indian banks are sitting on unrecognised stressed loans worth of Rs 7.7 trillion. We estimate that potentially Rs 2.6 trillion of corporate and SME loans, which is 3.2 per cent of total bank credit, will be recognised as stressed loans by fiscal 2019," the rating agency said.

The Public Sector lender Uco Bank is facing business restrictions from Reserve Bank of India following mounting losses, continuous erosion of net worth and huge NPAs. The bank on Friday has informed stock exchanges that the apex bank, through a letter on May 5, has initiated "prompt corrective action" on some of its business activities over its high bad loans and negative return on assets.

Mid-sized private sector lender Yes Bank Limited has disclosed the RBI has found a divergence of over Rs. 4,000 crore in the Non Performing Assets reported by it and the same assessed by the Reserve Bank for 2015-16.

The Reserve Bank of India may put restriction on United Bank of India branch expansion and direct it to make higher provisions to cover risks due to its rising stressed loans, a senior banking analyst said.

In a bid to take banking services to the remote locations of the country, the Reserve Bank of India has permitted the opening of mini branches or banking outlets accross the country for all domestic scheduled commercial banks except Regional Rural Banks without having to take permission from the regulator on a case by case basis. In a fresh set of guidelines released Thursday the central bank said that banks need to open atleast 25% of their banking outlets in a year in unbanked rural centres.

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