Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 8 May 2017

Gold prices retraced gains on Friday after data showing a strong rebound in U.S. jobs growth last month underlined expectations for a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve

Gold prices retraced gains on Friday after data showing a strong rebound in U.S. jobs growth last month underlined expectations for a June rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Gold for June delivery settled at $ 1,229.01 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, off an earlier high of $ 1,236.00. The precious metal ended the week down 3.26%, the largest week decline since early November. The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 211,000 jobs last month, beating expectations for a gain of 185,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%, a near a 10-year low. The report also showed that the prior month’s figure of 98,000 was revised down to an even lower 79,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in April. However, downward revisions to previous months lowered the year-on-year increase to 2.5%, the smallest gain since August 2016, from 2.6% in March.
The jobs data did little to alter the view that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June. Markets are pricing in around a 75% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting, Expectations of a faster pace of rate increases tend to weigh on gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Fading euro zone political risks also weighed on safe haven for the precious metal ahead of Sunday’s second round vote in the French presidential elections.
Gold demand in Asia rose this week, helped by a correction in prices, but traders said some buyers have held back from purchases while they wait for bullion prices to drop further. Analysts said gold buyers were expecting prices to dip in the upcoming days, banking on the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates in June. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Futures traders are pricing in a 74 percent chance of a June hike. Gold prices in India have been at a premium over the last couple of weeks due to stronger demand for the annual Hindu and Jain holy festival of Akshaya Tritiya and the recent dip in global rates have further boosted the appetite. "The price correction is attracting retail buyers. Jewellery demand is good for wedding season. At this price level even investment demand is emerging. In the local market, gold futures MAUc1 were trading around 28,238 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, down more than 2 percent compared to last week. The benchmark spot gold price XAU= is poised to end the week down about 3 percent, the biggest percentage fall since the week ending Nov. 11.
Gold prices moved higher on Friday, as the U.S. dollar weakened broadly, although the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance this week was expected to limit the precious metal’s gains. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were up 0.42% at $ 1,233. The June contract ended Thursday’s session 1.59% lower at $1,228.60 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $1,225.70, Thursday’s low and resistance at $1,257.80, Wednesday’s high. Gold prices had tumbled after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, and gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy, suggesting it was still on track for two more rate hikes this year. The Fed said it expects the economy to rebound after hitting a soft patch in the first three months of the year, noting that the labor market looks solid and inflation is running close to its target, setting the stage for a rate hike next month.
But the precious metal benefited from a drop in the U.S. dollar on Thursday. A weaker U.S. dollar usually supports gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.Market participants were now looking ahead to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday, for further indications on the strength of the job market. Data on Thursday painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, as initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week while factory orders eased in March.
Gold pared gains on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth rebounded in April and stayed on track for its biggest weekly loss in six months as expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike in June grew and euro zone political risk receded. The dollar .DXY hit its lowest level in roughly six months against the euro despite the sharp rebound in U.S. payrolls data, which did not shake investors' bullishness toward the euro ahead of the second round of France's presidential election. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.05 percent at $ 1,227.89 an ounce by 2:35 p.m. EDT , but set to end the week down 3.2 percent, its biggest weekly drop since November. U.S. June gold futures GCv1 settled down 0.14 percent at $ 1,226. "The U.S. employment was stronger than expected," ABN Amro analyst Georgette Boele said. "This only put gold prices slightly under pressure, because the U.S. dollar didn't rally." Gold fell to the lowest in nearly seven weeks at $1,225.20 on Thursday after the Fed played down any threats to this year's planned rate increases, supporting forecasts of another move in June. The metal is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. Concerns over a victory by far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election, which drove gold lower last month, have faded considerably. Sunday's vote is expected to elect centrist Emmanuel Macron, whom investors favour. Following six weeks of fund buying, gold was left exposed as geo-risks faded, but the fact that ETPs have seen limited selling appetite could be an indication that this was mostly speculative sellers reducing longs," said Saxo Bank's head of commodities research, Ole Hansen. Silver XAG= was up 0.2 percent at $ 16.31 an ounce, on track to close the week down 5.4 percent. "While declining mine supply has supported silver, the dynamic was not sufficient to take prices higher on a sustained basis, because commercial and non-commercial demand have been too weak,"
Gold prices dropped to a six-week low in European morning trade on Thursday, adding to overnight losses after the Federal Reserve left the door open to raising interest rates in June. Comex gold futures sank to a session low of $ 1,234.80 a troy ounce, a level not seen since March 21. It was last at $ 1,235.70 by 2:55AM ET , down $ 12.80, or about 1%. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,234.40. Also on the Comex, silver futures shed 5.9 cents, or about 0.4% to $ 16.48 a troy ounce, after touching a four-month low of $ 16.41 a day earlier. The Fed concluded its two-day policy meeting Wednesday afternoon, giving a positive assessment of the U.S. economy while keeping rates unchanged, as was widely expected. The U.S. central bank's policymaking committee downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth while emphasizing the strength of the labor market, suggesting it was still on track for two more rate hikes this year. Futures traders are pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 85%. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced.
Gold demand in India could be muted in the second half of 2017, as the rollout of a new national sales tax from July is expected to dent appetite in the world's second-biggest consumer, the World Gold Council said on Thursday. But sales are likely to be robust during the first six months of the year, the WGC said. Gold consumption in the first quarter of 2017 rose 15 percent to 123.5 tonnes on pent-up demand from jewellers as retail consumers ramped up purchases for weddings, the WGC said in a report published on Thursday. The WGC kept its forecast for India's full-year demand at 650 tonnes to 750 tonnes, lower than a 10-year average of 845 tonnes, but just above last year's level. In 2016, gold demand fell 22 percent from a year earlier to 666.1 tonnes, the lowest in seven years. "With the implementation of GST, we are expecting some kind of disruption in demand in the second half," The Goods and Services Tax that will be implemented from July 1. The long-awaited GST is hailed as India's biggest tax overhaul since independence in 1947. The GST will replace a slew of federal and state levies, transforming Asia's third largest economy into a single market for the first time. But small jewellers, who account for nearly two-thirds of the gold industry, could face operational issues in transitioning to the GST, Somasundaram said. Gold is a mainstay of Indian culture, serving as the primary vehicle for household saving for hundreds of millions of people. The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to curb costly bullion imports and put restrictions on cash transactions. Indians buy more than two-thirds of gold with cash. To cut down unofficial trading, under the GST, gold should be taxed substantially lower than the existing duty of 12 percent, The WGC has estimated that 100-120 tonnes of smuggled gold entered India in 2016. Smuggling has surged since New Delhi raised the import duty on gold to 10 percent in 2013 to narrow a gaping current account deficit.
Gold prices struggled near the prior session's three-week lows in European morning trade on Wednesday, as market players looked ahead to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for further clues on the timing of the next rate hike. Comex gold futures lost around $ 1.00, or less than 0.1%, to $ 1,256.10 a troy ounce by 2:55AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,254. The yellow metal fell to its weakest level since April 10 at $ 1,252.60 on Tuesday as strong earnings and manufacturing data boosted risk appetite. Also on the Comex, SILVER futures inched up 6.6 cents, or about 0.4% to $ 16.89 a troy ounce, after touching a more than three-month low of $ 16.80 a day earlier. On MCX the precious metal were trading around 37500-38250 levels. The Fed is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank will release its Post-meeting statement as investors look for any change in language which could point more clearly to a June rate hike. Besides the Fed minutes, Wednesday' calendar also features the ADP private sector Nonfarm payrolls report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey. Market experts do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates again until June, especially in light of recent softening data. Futures traders are pricing in around a 60% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting. Odds of a September increase was seen at about 80%. The median Fed policymaker forecast is for two more rate increases by year-end, after already raising its benchmark interest rate once this year, by a quarter percentage point at its last policy meeting in March. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding Non-Yielding assets such as bullion.
Gold prices declined in European trading on Monday, falling toward a three-week low after U.S. congressional leaders reached an agreement to fund the government through the fall. Comex gold futures lost $4.50, or around 0.4%, to $ 1,263.80 a troy ounce by 2:55AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,262.50. Also on the Comex, silver futures inched down 9.8 cents, or about 0.6% to $ 17.16 a troy ounce, after touching a more than six-week low of $ 17.08 earlier in the session. Trading activity was expected to remain light on Monday, with most markets in Europe, the U.K. and Asia closed for the May Day holiday. Negotiators in the U.S. Congress reached a deal late on Sunday on around $ 1 trillion in federal funding that would fund the government through September 30 and avert a government shutdown later this week. The full House of Representatives and Senate must still approve the bipartisan pact, which would be the first major legislation to clear Congress since Donald Trump became president on January 20. The news boosted risk-sensitive assets, such as global equities, and sparked a sell-off in assets perceived as safe, such as the yen, bullion and U.S. Treasuries, which are often used as a hedge in times of political uncertainty.

AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS.
Monday, May 8
Australia is to release data on building approvals and business confidence.
China is to publish trade data.
The UK is to produce industry data on house prices.

Tuesday, May 9
Australia is to release data on retail sales.
Canada is to publish a report on building permits.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is to speak at an event in Dallas.

Wednesday, May 10
China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.
ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak about the impact of monetary policy at the Dutch House of Representatives, in Netherlands.
The U.S. is to release data on import prices.

Thursday, May 11
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
Switzerland is to release inflation data.
The UK is to report on manufacturing production.
The Bank of England is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish the meeting minutes.
Canada is to report on new house price inflation.
The U.S. is to release reports on initial jobless claims and producer prices.

Friday, May 12
Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 nations are to meet in Italy.
The U.S. is to round up the week with a string of reports including a look at consumer prices, retail sales and consumer sentiment.

ENERGY
Oil prices rose on Monday on a growing conviction that an OPEC-led production cut initially scheduled to end in June would be extended to cover all of 2017, although a relentless increase in U.S. drilling activity is seen capping gains. The rise came after steep falls last week on the back of ongoing high supplies from countries that aren't participating in the cuts, including the United States where output is soaring . the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential elections against far-right Marine Le Pen also supported oil prices as it raised hopes of a more stable European economy. market viewed the fall as overdone,"
Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 49.85 per barrel at 0020 GMT on Monday, up 75 cents, or 1.5 percent, from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $ 46.87 per barrel, up 65 cents, or 1.4 percent from the last close. The market is becoming more confident that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, who pledged to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year in order to prop up the market, will extend the deal to cover all of 2017. "There's a growing conviction that a six-month extension may be needed to rebalance the market, but the length of the extension is not firm yet," Saudi Arabia's OPEC Governor Adeeb Al-Aama told Reuters on Friday. this, both Brent and WTI crude benchmarks are sitting below $ 50 per barrel as global markets remain bloated due to brimming storage and ongoing high drilling and production. Data is unlikely to help turn this move into something more sustainable. Drilling activity in the U.S. continued to pick up last week, with the rig count climbing for the 16th straight to week to 703. are also lingering concerns about a potential slowdown of the Chinese economy, which has acted as a core pillar of oil demand growth.
Oil futures settled higher on Friday, but still registered a hefty loss for the week as signs of rising U.S. shale production continued to feed concerns about a global supply glut.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude June contract tacked on 70 cents, or around 1.5%, to end at $ 46.22 a barrel by close of trade Friday. It plunged almost 5% on Thursday after hitting its lowest since November 14 at $ 43.76. The U.S. benchmark lost $3.11, or almost 6.3%, on the week, the third straight weekly decline, marking the longest losing streak since November. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for July delivery ticked up 72 cents to settle at $ 49.10 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark sank to $46.64 a day earlier, a level not seen since November 15. For the week, London-traded Brent futures recorded a loss of $2.95, or nearly 5.7%. Crude has been under pressure in recent weeks amid fears that an ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production is derailing efforts by other major producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand.
U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 16th week in a row, data from energy services company Baker Hughes showed on Friday, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. The U.S. rig count rose by 6 to 703, extending an 11-month drilling recovery to the highest level since August 2015. The relentless increase in U.S. output has overshadowed pledged output cuts by major producers. In November last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January and June, but so far the move has had little impact on inventory levels.
Saudi Arabia's OPEC Governor Adeeb Al-Aama said on Friday there is an emerging consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC countries who took part in a global pact to cut crude output on the need to extend the agreement beyond June to help clear a supply glut. A final decision on whether or not to extend the deal beyond June will be taken by the oil cartel on May 25. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for June gained 2.3 cents, or about 1.6% to end at $ 1.504 on Friday. It closed down around 2.9% for the week on concern over lackluster demand. June heating oil tacked on 2.4 cents to finish at $1.436 a gallon. For the week, the fuel lost roughly 4.7%. Natural gas futures for June delivery rose 8.0 cents to $3.266 per million British thermal units, up 2.5% for the session but 0.3% lower for the week. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for a monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year.
Oil Friday struggled to recover from levels seen before an output cut accord by major producers in November.
U.S. crude was up 16 cents, or 0.35%, at $ 45.68 at 05:30 ET after falling below $ 44. Brent crude gained 31 cents, or 0.64%, to $ 48.69 after dropping below $ 47. The fall in oil prices steps up the pressure for an extension of the output cut accord beyond June. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. There are doubts that the size of the cuts will be increased. The scaling down of output has failed to make inroads into a glut in inventories as U.S. shale activity increases. Baker Hughes rig count data are due out later in the session.
Oil prices trimmed losses on Friday, having fallen more than 3 percent at one stage, the day after skidding to five-month lows as mounting concerns about global oversupply wiped out price gains since OPEC sealed a landmark accord to cut output. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $44.92 per barrel at 0716 GMT, down 60 cents or 1.3 percent, after a more than 4 percent drop the previous session. WTI futures are now at their lowest since Nov. 14, below levels when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers agreed cuts late last November in a bid to drain a supply glut and boost prices. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 47.88 per barrel, down 50 cents or 1 percent from their last close. Prices fell to as low as $46.64, the lowest since Nov. 30. Brent tumbled back below $50 in the previous session. At their intraday lows, Brent and WTI were heading for their largest two-day percentage loss since February 2016. "It is now-or-never for oil bulls. "They either put up a defence here or risk further emboldening the bears for a run at the $ 40 threshold).
Doubts that the OPEC-led cuts, even when fully implemented, will be deep enough to draw down bloated storage levels around the world are also weighing on prices. Both Brent and WTI futures are down around 17 percent for the year so far despite the OPEC effort to support prices. Till now OPEC's strategy to draw down inventories has not worked...It seems obvious to us that OPEC will need to keep the cuts in place for longer than the next six months if their strategy is to have any chance of success." Crude is now back to levels last seen before OPEC and other producers said they would cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year in a bid to tighten the market.
Oil prices were marooned near five-months lows on Friday after a near 5 percent fall in the previous session on concerns over rising U.S. supply, wiping out all of the price gains since OPEC's move to curb output. Tumbling prices would likely force OPEC members to extend production cuts later this month, but the prospect fo deeper cuts appeared slim, analysts said.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 48.41 per barrel at 0047 GMT, up 3 cents from their last close. Brent tumbled back below $50 a barrel in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $ 45.53 per barrel, up just 1 cent after a more than 4 percent drop the previous session. These large drops put crude back to levels last seen before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia said they would cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day during the first half of the year in a bid to tighten the market and prop up prices. Traders said that the tumbling market was a result of soaring U.S. oil production, which has risen over 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.3 million bpd C-OUT-T-EIA , levels not far off top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. Doubts that the OPEC-led cut, even when fully implemented, are deep enough to draw down bloated storage levels around the world are also weighing on prices.
Crude oil lost ground on Thursday, falling for a third out of four sessions and trading near its lowest since late March after data showed a lower than expected decline in U.S. inventories. U.S. crude stockpiles fell less than expected last week, while gasoline inventories grew as demand remained weak, the EIA said on Wednesday, keeping concerns about global supply on a simmer. Crude inventories USOILC=ECI fell by 930,000 barrels in the week to April 28, much less than analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks have steadily declined for the last four weeks, but at 527.8 million barrels they are still 3 percent higher from this time a year ago. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 lost 18 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $ 47.64 a barrel by 2345 GMT after settling 16 cents higher at $ 47.82 a barrel in the last session.
The benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was yet to start trading in Asian hours. "EIA data showed U.S. stockpiles fell only 930,000 barrels to 527.8 million barrels. U.S. production also pushed higher for the 11th straight week. While the market takes direction from U.S. inventories and rising production, investors are also monitoring whether producing countries have been complying with their 2016 deal to cut output around 1.8 million barrels per day by the middle of the year. Russia, contributing the largest production cut outside OPEC, said as of May 1, it had cut output by more than 300,000 bpd since hitting peak production in October. However the latest survey of OPEC production showed the country's compliance had fallen slightly. OPEC meets on May 25 to discuss extending the agreement. Iraqi fuel oil exports have soared since January despite a reduction in the country's crude production in line with OPEC supply cuts, industry sources said, in what could be a way to boost output of refined products and maintain oil revenues. Iraq on average exported between 80,000 and 160,000 tonnes of fuel oil per month in 2016, data collected by Thomson Reuters Oil Research showed.
U.S. crude stocks fell less than expected in the latest week, official data showed Wednesday. The EIA said crude inventories fell by 930,000 barrels after a fall of 3.641 million barrels the previous week. Crude inventories were forecast to fall by 2.333 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 1,91,000 barrels after a rise of 3.369 million barrels the previous week. Gasoline inventories were expected to rise by 1.322 million barrels. U.S. crude gave up earlier gains and was off 0.36% at $ 47.49 after data release.
Crude oil prices bounced back on Wednesday as a decline in U.S. inventories underpinned the market, although a dip in compliance with OPEC efforts to reduce output and near record supplies capped gains. The benchmark for global oil market, Brent futures LCOc1 gained 47 cents, or 0.9 percent to $ 50.93 a barrel by 0641 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 rose 37 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $ 48.02 a barrel. On Tuesday, WTI slid 2.4 percent to its lowest close since March 21 and Brent closed at its lowest level this year, erasing all of the gains made since OPEC agreed to reduce production in November. There is precautionary buying following API data and leading to EIA data. Crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended April 28 to 528.3 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 215,000 barrels, API said.
Crude oil prices bounced back on Wednesday as a decline in U.S. inventories underpinned the market, Although a dip in compliance with OPEC efforts to reduce output capped gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 rose 48 cents, or 1 percent, to $ 48.14 a barrel by 0030 GMT. On Tuesday, the market slid 2.4 percent to its lowest close since March 21. Benchmark Brent LCOc1 futures gained 59 cents, or 1.2 percent to $ 51.05 a barrel. U.S. crude stocks fell last week, and both gasoline and distillate inventories also dropped, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Crude inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended April 28 to 528.3 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 215,000 barrels. The U.S. government will release its inventory data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. The supply of crude oil continues to decline. This is evident in both spot and forward supply data, "Demand remains strong and in spite of lower refinery profitability we see increasing capacity utilization rates. Production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell for a fourth straight month in April, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia kept production below its target while maintenance and unrest cut production in exempt nations Nigeria and Libya. more oil from Angola and higher UAE output than originally thought meant OPEC compliance with its production-cutting deal slipped to 90 percent from a revised 92 percent in March. Brent is trading close to its lowest level since late November, when OPEC agreed to cut supply.
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday, as rising output stoked worries that OPEC-led production cuts may not significantly tighten a bloated market. Oil has been weighed down by the market's impatience with the slow pace of inventory drawdown, even after major oil producers agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day for the first half of 2017. U.S. crude inventories are expected to mark a fourth straight week of declines from a record high hit at the end of March, but stocks are still seen about 10 percent above year-end levels, according to Reuters calculations. London Brent crude for July delivery LCOc1 was down 18 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $ 51.34 by 0631 GMT, after settling down 53 cents on Monday. Brent hit a one-month low of $ 50.45 last week after the restart of two key Libyan oilfields. NYMEX crude for June delivery CLc1 was down 20 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $ 48.64.
Oil did win some support after data showed that Russian oil output fell slightly to 11 million barrels per day in April from 11.05 million bpd in March. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and participating Non-OPEC countries meet on May 25 to discuss whether to extend coordinated curbs in production into the second half of the year. Excess supplies are noticeable, particularly in Europe, which is curbing Brent's gains," Overall, the demand is weakening and the inventories pile up."
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday, as a recovery in Libyan output and rising U.S. supplies raised worries that OPEC-led production cuts may not significantly tighten a bloated market. Oil has been weighed down by the market's impatience with the slow pace of inventory drawdown globally, even after major oil producers agreed to cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day for the first half of 2017. London Brent crude for July delivery LCOc1 was down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $ 51.45 by 0021 GMT, after settling down 53 cents on Monday. Brent crude has risen only around $ 1 from a one-month low of $ 50.45 hit on Thursday that came after the restart of two key Libyan oilfields. NYMEX crude for June delivery CLc1 was down 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $ 48.74. Libya's National Oil Company said production has risen above 760,000 bpd to its highest since December 2014, with plans to keep boosting production. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and participating non-OPEC countries meet on May 25 to discuss whether to extend that reduction.
Oil was lower Monday as a slowdown in Chinese Manufacturing activity in April weighed on the demand outlook. U.S. crude was off 27 cents, or 0.55%, at $ 49.06 at 04:45 ET. Brent crude shed 32 cents, or 0.61%, to $ 51.73. Increased U.S. drilling activity also weighed on the outlook for supply. Trading was light with many markets in Asia and Europe closed for the Labor Day holiday. But oil remained underpinned by hopes for an extension of an output cut deal by major producers. OPEC and Non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. Iran said over the weekend it would back an extension. Baker Hughes weekly data Friday showed a rise of nine in the U.S. rig count to 697. That was the highest number since April 2015. Higher U.S. output undermines the impact of the output cuts.
Oil prices edged down on Monday as a disappointing Chinese economic survey clouded the outlook for demand, Although talk that OPEC-led crude output cuts could be extended continued to offer support. NYMEX crude for June delivery CLc1 was down 12 cents at $49.21 a barrel by 0619 GMT. London Brent crude for new front-month delivery in July LCOc1 was down 15 cents at $ 51.90. A faster-than-expected slowdown of growth in China's manufacturing sector in April weighed on prices. An official survey showed on Sunday that producer price inflation cooled and policymakers' efforts to curtail financial risks in the economy weighed on demand. moderation in the China PMI could see commodity prices come under some modest pressure, The price declines mark the third consecutive week that oil has started with a drop, with high inventories also dragging on markets that have been grappling with a global supply glut for the last few years. Iran's oil minister said on Saturday that OPEC and non-OPEC countries had given positive signals for an extension of output cuts, which Tehran would also back. OPEC meets this month to discuss oil supply policy. If OPEC agrees to extend the cuts, then bloated global inventories could drain by the end of the year, a Reuters poll of economists and analysts showed.
Oil prices edged down on Monday on worries that OPEC-led production cuts may not significantly tighten an oversupplied market in the short term despite talk of extending them. NYMEX crude for June delivery CLc1 was down 12 cents at $ 49.21 a barrel by 0032 GMT, After settling up 36 cents on Friday. The contract is up about 2 percent from a one-month low hit on Thursday. London Brent crude for new front-month delivery in July LCOc1 was down 14 cents at $ 51.91.
Iran's oil minister said on Saturday that OPEC and non-OPEC countries had given positive signals for an extension of output cuts, which Tehran would also back. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets this month to discuss oil supply policy. If OPEC agrees to extend the cuts, then bloated global inventories could drain by the end of the year, Oil prices have got no firm support from rising geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday stepped up outreach to allies in Asia to secure their cooperation to pressure North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs. calls to the two Asian leaders came after North Korea test-launched another missile that Washington and Seoul said was unsuccessful but which drew widespread international condemnation. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the first time in four weeks in the week to April 25, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.

AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS.

Tuesday, May 9
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, May 10
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, May 11
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.
The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, May 12
Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :

Trading Ideas:

Copper trading range for the day is 356.2-364.6.
Copper prices ended with gains as mine workers in Peru considered launching a new strike and some investors regarded the lower prices as good value.
Inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses climbed by 36,800 tonnes, exchange data showed, bringing this week's surge to 40 percent.
Glencore’s copper production slid 3% in the first quarter of 2017 to 324,000 tonnes.

Nickel
Nickel trading range for the day is 567.6-603.8.
Nickel on MCX settled up 1.67% after LME nickel bounced 1.4 percent to close at $9,140 after touching $8,905, the weakest since June 24 last year
Many of these mines were nickel producers, and the crackdown removed a great deal of supply from the market.
In the meantime, Indonesian shipments are already picking up after a relaxation of the government’s ore export ban.

Zinc
Zinc trading range for the day is 162.6-169.
Zinc prices gains tracking rise in LME prices by 0.5 percent at $ 2,582 despite further losses in steel and iron ore prices.
The global demand for refined zinc metal is forecast to total 14.30 million tonnes in 2017, marginally higher by 2.6% over the previous year.
The global demand for refined zinc metal will exceed supply in 2017, despite sharp rise in zinc mine output.

BASE METAL
? COPPER ( 08-05- 2017 )
Copper retreated in early Asian trade, with high inventories weighing on prices in both London and Shanghai markets ahead of key Chinese trade data on Monday. The looming flurry of Chinese data, due around 0200 GMT, is expected to show the world's second-largest economy maintained solid momentum in April after a surprisingly robust first quarter. But industrial output is expected to rise 7.1 per cent in April, slowing from 7.6 per cent in March.

FUNDAMENTALS
LONDON COPPER: Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange had dropped 1 per cent to $ 5,520 a tonne by 0139 GMT.
SHANGHAI COPPER: The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.20 per cent to 44,920 yuan ($6,510) a tonne.
LME STOCKS: Inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses climbed by 36,800 tonnes, exchange data showed on Friday, bringing last week's surge to 40 per cent.
COPPER STRIKE: Peruvian miners voted on Friday to approve a national strike in June to protest"anti-labour" government proposals, Ricardo Juarez, secretary general of the National Federation of Miners, Metallurgists and Steelworkers, told.
OIL: Oil traders have finally given up on an early rebalancing of the crude market, with flat prices and calendar spreads plunging to the lowest level since OPEC's agreement was announced.

( 05 - MAY - 2017 )
? BASE METAL
Copper and Nickel have turned out to be the worst performers in the base metal basket this week. Both of them have declined by more than 2 percent. Copper, being an economic barometer, is hurt by global doldrums while nickel is declining following news of rejection of appointment of Regina Lopez as environment secretary by Philippine lawmakers as it is likely to ease the supply woes for the metal used in making stainless steel.
( 05 - MAY - 2017 )
? COPPER
Copper futures fell 0.07 per cent to Rs 358.30 per kg today as speculators indulged in trimming their positions amid a weak trend in global markets. Muted demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market also put pressure on prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in June contracts declined by 25 paise, or 0.07 per cent to Rs 358.30 per kg in a business turnover of 1,106 lots. The metal for delivery in far-month August fell by a similar margin to trade at Rs 362.05 per kg in a business volume of 8 lots.
? NICKEL ( 05 - MAY - 2017 )
Nickel prices dropped 0.62 per cent to Rs 576.40 per kg in futures trade today as traders cut down their bets, taking weak cues from global market and low demand at the domestic spot market. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in May was trading Rs 3.60, or 0.62 per cent, down at Rs 576.40 per kg in a business turnover of 1,196 lots. The metal for delivery in June also shed Rs 2.60 or 0.44 per cent, to Rs 582.20 per kg in a turnover of 66 lots. Analysts said the fall in nickel prices in futures trade is mostly attributed to overnight fall in commodities prices, including base metals, and easing demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot market.

( 04 - May - 2017 )
? ZINC
Zinc prices were up by 0.24 per cent to Rs. 165.40 per kg in futures trade today as speculators created fresh positions on pick-up in demand from consuming industries at the spot markets. However, weakness in select base metals in the global market limited the gains. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in current month was trading higher by 40 paise, or 0.24 per cent, to Rs 165.40 per kg, in a business turnover of 618 lots. The metal for delivery in June rose 30 paise, or 0.18 per cent, to trade at Rs 166 per kg in 7 lots. Market analysts attributed the rise in zinc futures to fresh bets created by participants on the back of rising demand at the domestic spot market.

? LEAD ( 04 - May - 2017 )
Lead futures traded higher by 0.28 per cent to Rs 141.25 per kg in futures trade today as participants built up fresh positions amid pick up in domestic demand. Lead for delivery in the current month was trading higher by 40 paise, or 0.28 per cent to Rs 141.25 per kg in 30 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. The metal for delivery in June also rose by a similar margin to trade at Rs 141.55 per kg in a business volume of 3 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to pick up in demand from battery-makers at the spot market. However, weakness in select base metals in global market limited the rise.

? COPPER ( 04 - MAY - 2017 )
Copper futures traded a shade higher at Rs 362.50 per kg today as participants enlarged positions, largely on the back of pick-up in spot demand, even as the metal weakened overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for June contract was trading up by 25 paise, or 0.07 per cent at Rs 362.50 per kg with a turnover of 1,510 lots. The metal for delivery in August also rose by a similar margin to quote at Rs 366.30 per kg in 12 lots. Globally, copper for three-months delivery ended down 3.5 per cent at USD 5,600 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange in yesterday's trade after a jump in inventories increased worries about an economic slowdown in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal. Also manufacturing PMI data from China this week has come below expectations, raising concerns about Chinese demand. Market analysts attributed the rise in copper futures trade to a firming trend in the base metals at the domestic spot markets on pick-up in demand but a weak trend in metal overseas, capped the gains.

? LEAD ( 02- May - 2017 )
Lead prices were down 0.85 per cent to Rs 145.30 per kg in futures trading today amid a bearish trend at the domestic spot markets as participants trimmed their exposure. Lead for delivery in May declined by Rs 1.25 or 0.85 per cent to Rs 145.30 per kg in a business turnover of 639 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June shed 25 paise or 0.17 per cent to Rs. 145.40 per kg in one lot. Market man said the fall in lead futures was due to a weak trend at the domestic physical markets on low demand, particularly form battery-makers. They said absence of cues overseas cues as London Metal Exchange remained shut yesterday for a public holiday, too weighed on prices.

? COPPER ( 02- May - 2017 )
Copper prices declined by 1.46 per cent to Rs 375 per kg in futures trade today as participants trimmed their positions even as the metal rose overseas. Besides, muted spot demand from consuming industries fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in June shed Rs 5.55 or 1.46 per cent to Rs 375 per kg in a business turnover of 4,356 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month August contracts traded lower by Rs 5.55 or 1.44 per cent to Rs 379 per kg in 69 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to cutting down of positions by participants despite overnight gains in the metal in global market.


NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF AGRI MARKET -
( 08 - MAY - 2017 )
? CORIANDER
Coriander futures prices sank to 15 months low on Wednesday after hitting lower circuit on growing concerns of rising supplies from imports and good production expectations from the new season crop in 2016-17. The most active May coriander futures on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange plunged about 24% in last one month to Rs. 6,104 per quintal. Moreover, in the current season, coriander on NCDEX witnessed heavy selling pressure during the month of April , dragging prices by 12.8% due to rise in arrivals of the new crop. The arrivals of coriander seed in the country during the first 4 month of current calendar year has increase by 30% on year to 3.31 lakh tonnes compared to 2.55 lt in 2016.
Market participants are worried about constant increase in imports of coriander supported by strong Indian rupee and decreasing export quantities from the country. The production of coriander in the country was adequate despite report of lower acreage during 2016/17 rabi season.

( 05 - MAY - 2017 )
? CARDAMOM
Cardamom prices rose further by 2.15 per cent to Rs 1,078.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions, taking positive cues from spot markets on rising domestic and exports demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in June contracts rose by Rs 22.80, or 2.15 per cent to Rs 1,078.90 per kg in business turnover of 85 lots. On similar lines, the spice for delivery in May contracts traded higher by Rs 3.90, or 0.31 per cent to Rs 1,266 per kg in 36 lots. Analysts said expanding of positions by participants on the back of strong domestic as well as exports demand against tight stocks position on restricted arrivals from producing regions, mainly kept cardamom prices higher at futures trade.

( 05 - MAY - 2017 )
? CRUDE PALM OIL
Crude palm oil prices fell 0.44 per cent to Rs 475.70 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators booked profits at prevailing higher levels amid fall in demand in spot market. Also, sufficient stocks position following higher supplies from the producing belts too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in June contracts eased by Rs 2.10, or 0.44 per cent, to Rs 475.70 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 36 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery this month contract traded lower by Rs 1.40, or 0.28 per cent, to Rs 489 per 10 kg with trading volume of 199 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking by speculators at prevailing higher levels, fall in demand in the spot market and higher supplies from the producing belts mainly put pressure on crude palm oil prices.

( 05 - MAY - 2017 )
? WHEAT
Government agencies may increase purchases of wheat from farmers by one-third during the rabi marketing season this financial year to replenish stocks following two years of drought, although the quantity will fall short of a previously set target. Wheat procurement is expected to be about 30.5 million tonnes, a 33% increase from 22.96 million tonnes in the previous year. However, wheat purchases will be less than the goal of 33 million tonnes, with buying set to fall short of target in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Food Corporation of India said. As per field reports, we anticipate wheat procurement to end at 30 to 30.5 million tonnes. Current procurement is 25.44 million tonnes, as on May 4,” said an FCI official, adding that with an opening stock of 6.78 million tonnes on April 1, it would be able to comfortably meet demand from the public distribution system and maintain the required buffer stock. However, Tejinder Narang, a grain analyst and former director of state-run trading company PEC, said looking at the current procurement levels, the government will have to allow imports at zero duty. The government will not be able to procure more than 28 million tonnes of wheat, with the season over in most states. They will also have to prune down production figures to 88-90 million tonnes,” he said. Wheat production would be a record 96.64 million tonnes, according to the second advance estimates of production of major crops for 2016-17 issued in February.

( 04 - MAY - 2017 )
? MENTHA OIL
Mentha oil prices were up 0.58 per cent to Rs 926.90 per kg in futures market today as participants widened their holdings on the back of rising demand from consuming industries at the spot market. Tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also support to mentha oil prices uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month contract rose by Rs 5.40, or 0.58 per cent, to Rs 926.90 per kg, clocking a business volume of 119 lots. The oil for June delivery traded higher by Rs 4.10, or 0.44 per cent, to Rs 930 per kg, with a trading volume of 27 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up by speculators, driven by rising demand from consuming industries in the spot markets against restricted supplies from Chandausi, led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade.

( 04 - MAY - 2017 )
? CARDAMOM
Cardamom prices were trading up by 2.39 per cent to Rs 1,067 per kg in futures trade today as speculators enlarged their positions amid an upsurge in physical demand in the domestic spot market. Further, tight supplies from major producing regions also supported the upside in cardamom prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in June month contract rose by Rs 24.90, or 2.39 per cent, to Rs 1,067 per kg with trading volume of 102 lots. Similarly, spice for delivery this month contract increased by Rs 12.90, or 1.03 per cent, to Rs 1,256.40 per kg in 66 lots. Traders said widening of positions by participants, driven by surge in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from producing regions, mainly kept cardamom prices higher at futures trade.

? CRUDE PALM OIL ( 04 - MAY - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices were up by 0.41 per cent to Rs 491 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators indulged in enlarging positions, driven by a firm demand at the spot market. Besides, a firming trend in overseas markets supported the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery this month contract rose by Rs 2, or 0.41 per cent, to Rs 491 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 149 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in June month contract went up by Rs 1.90, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 476.60 per 10 kg in 42 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants amid pick up in demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil prices higher at futures trade.

? MENTHA OIL ( 01 - MAY - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices eased by 0.97 per cent to Rs 944 per kg in futures trade today as speculators trimmed positions, driven by sluggish demand from industries at the spot market. Ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions too influenced mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month eased by Rs 9.30, or 0.97 per cent, to Rs 944 per kg, in a business turnover of 172 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in June traded lower by Rs 8.30, or 0.87 per cent, to Rs 944.80 per kg in 28 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants due to subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market against ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the decline in mentha oil prices in futures trade.

? SUGAR - ( 1 - May - 2017 )
Raw sugar futures on ICE vaulted higher on Friday, on late-day buying just moments before the May contract expired as the delivery was viewed as larger-than-expected.
The London agricultural markets will shut for a holiday Monday and reopen on Tuesday, while ICE Futures U.S. soft commodities will open late on Monday at 7:30 a.m. EDT.
SUGAR
July raw sugar SBc2 settled up 0.7 cent, or 4.5 percent, at 16.13 cents per lb, its biggest one-day rally on a continuation chart since Jan. 3.
It closed April down 4.4 percent, its third straight monthly fall after touching a one-year low on Thursday.
Traders also eyed industrial unrest in top producer Brazil. August white sugar LSUc1 settled up $ 13.10, or 2.9 percent, at $ 459.50 per tonne.

? SUGAR ( 30- April - 2017 )
Raw sugar futures on ICE were higher on Friday, but remained on course for a weekly loss as the market kept a close watch on the May contract due to expire later in the day. Coffee and New York cocoa prices also rose, although the strength of sterling weighed on London cocoa.
SUGAR
July raw sugar SBc2 was up 0.22 cent, or 1.4 percent, to 15.65 cents per lb at 1210 GMT, regaining some ground after the prior session's slide to a one-year low of 15.35 cents.
The contract, however, remained on track for a weekly loss of more than 5 percent.
Dealers said the main focus on Friday was the expiry of the May contract SBK7 , with a delivery of around 750,000 to one million tonnes generally anticipated.
August white sugar LSUc1 was up $5.40 at $451.80 a tonne.

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