Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 17 April 2017

Equity Benchmark Index Nifty 50 opened on a Strong note on Monday trading Session up by 107 point’s or 1.16 per cent from its last closing at 9225

Equity Benchmark Index Nifty 50 opened on a Strong note on Monday trading Session up by 107 point’s or 1.16 per cent from its last closing at 9225. Last Friday Nifty fell by 63 points to close Near 9197 level. This was the biggest fall in one day in recent past, As we all know that the Market can Not Run one way, At Upper levels you will experience profit booking and This profit booking will make Market move Down. The Nifty broke crucial Support Near 9220-9260. Last week market witnessed the Volatile Sessions as Reserve Bank of India Announced its Monetary Policy kept key repo rate Unchanged at 6.25 percent. However Central Bank hiked Reserve Repo Rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent from 5.75 and cut the marginal Standing Facility Rate by 25 bps to 6.50 from 6.75 per cent. All eyes may be on the Quarter fourth earning Season Now in which market may not be so much Optimistic due to various Apprehensions like recent strength in INR, Uncertainty About GST May also force the Companies and Traders to Reduce the Inventory level in coming day’s due to no clear policy date about Input Tax credit. On Wednesday trading session Nifty Opened at 9242 made high of 9246 and closed at 9203 after making low of 9162. The index took Support of it’s 6 day low of 9173. Nifty traded in the Range of 9161-9250 Throughout the week. The Government released industrial production data for the month of Feb at -1.20% where expectation was 1.3% and January IIP numbers were at 2.70%. Consumer Price Index for the month of march released at 3.81% where expectation was at 3.98% and February CPI was at 3.65%. Time and Price action Suggest that the Nifty has to Sustain over 9240 level for further Up move toward 9340-9360. On the Other Side if it is not able to sustain the crucial level 9200 may drag the Index toward 9173-9120 level in Upcoming week trading session. The Significance Levels for Nifty is 9217-9257 is Up side and 9154-9137 is Down side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Banking Shares Index Bank Nifty opened at 21539 last Week and made a record high of 21699, the index closed at 21431 after making low of 21397. The Banking shares Index Bank Nifty started off week on a Positive note on Monday trading session up by 61 points or 0.28 per cent at 21492. The Public Sector Bank’s rallied most after Government Announced formation of panel to be headed by the Cabinet Secretary to review Net Performing Assets Resolution rules. The NPA panel will frame guidelines for one-time settlement of banks' bad loans. However final policy will be announced by next month in May according to finance ministry officials. The Finance Minister Announced formation for a Net Performing Assets Panel to Formulate an Effective Policy for Stressed Assets Resolution like Quantum of haircuts, one-time settlement, Corporate Debt Restructuring Mechanism Etc. This has rejuvenated Banks and Bank Nifty made high of 21780. The market may be very optimistic about PSB Quarter 4 earnings. Government will continue to Support the Recapitalization of the Banks. Bank Nifty made new record high of 21787, the index opened at 21735 and closed at 21667, after making a low of 21552. PSU banks remained in focus after government announced formation of panel to be headed by the Cabinet Secretary to review NPA resolution rules. The Significance Levels for Bank Nifty is 21816-21938 is Up side and 21632-21572 is Down side.



NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
? TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Government forgoes Rs 56,000 crore tax to SEZ in April-December FY17 - The government has forgone Rs. 56,418 crore tax during the first nine months of the last fiscal pertaining to special economic zones, Parliament was informed. In the entire 2015-16, these zones had received duty exemptions worth Rs. 52,216 crore, according to the data given by Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. Exports from these zones stood at Rs. 3.58 lakh crore during the April-December period of 2016-17, ended March 31. In the entire financial year 2015-16, the exports had amounted to Rs. 4,67,337 crore. as on date, 109 SEZs developers have sought cancellation of their projects in some states as the developers have found the projects economically unviable in the changed economic situation.

Higher production costs impact manufacturing competitiveness: FICCI Survey - Rising production costs significantly impacted manufacturing competitiveness in the last few months, according to a survey. Industry body FICCI's latest quarterly survey on manufacturing suggests slight decline for the manufacturing sector outlook in the fourth quarter of the last fiscal, as the percentage of respondents reporting higher production and exports in fourth quarter have declined as compared to the previous quarter. The percentage of respondents reporting lower production has reduced by half over the previous quarter thereby indicating a more stable outlook in months to come, the Report said.

Business confidence at all time high: CII report - India’s business sentiment is bullish and expectations from the economy are at an all-time high, a business outlook survey carried out by the Confederation of Indian Industry has revealed. The CII Business Confidence Index for the quarter to March has surged to a record high of 64.1 as against 56.5 recorded in the previous quarter. The turnaround in business expectations gives credence to a growth narrative based on improved business sentiment and investor confidence,” said Chandrajit Banerjee, director general, CII. The survey calculates BCI based on the responses from more than a 100 large, medium, small and micro firms across the country, on questions related to the performance of their firm, sector and the economy based on their perceptions about the previous and current quarter.

High Government Support to deal with stressed asset 'negative': Fitch - Excessive government support to banks to deal with stressed assets and loose macro economic policy that could stoke inflation would be "negative" for the Indian economy, Fitch said. Further deviation of the already-high public-debt burden from the peer median, which may be caused by stalling fiscal consolidation or greater-than-expected deterioration in the banking sector's asset quality that would prompt large-scale sovereign financial support. negative sensitivities," it said. In its Asia-Pacific Sovereign Overview for April-June quarter, Fitch Ratings also said that "loose macroeconomic policy settings that cause a return of persistently high inflation and a widening current-account deficit, which would increase the risk of external funding stress" are also negative for the economy.

Inflation seen edging up closer to RBI's mid-term target - India's inflation is seen climbing to within touching distance of the central bank's 4 percent medium-term target in March, driven by higher food costs, a Reuters poll found, backing policymakers' decision last week to move to a defacto tightening bias. Having sunk to its lowest level for at least five years in January, consumer price inflation is expected to have risen to 3.98 percent last month from February's 3.65 percent, according to the median forecast of 30 economists. The March inflation rate is due to be released at 1200 GMT on April 12. Inflation is likely to pick up in March, backing the central bank's stance to keep rates on hold last week," Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank.

RBI had its 'carpe diem ' moment on April 6: HSBC - The Reserve Bank "killed several birds with one stone" in its policy meet on April 6 by not sucking out excess liquidity with its permanent tool like open market operations and Cash Reserve Ratio hike, an HSBC report says. According to the global financial services major, the RBI's decision to narrow the policy rate corridor by raising the reverse repo rate and lowering the MSF rate killed several birds with one stone. The Reserve Bank of India seized the day on April 6 by not sucking out the excess liquidity via a permanent and blunt tool Like OMO sales or CRR hike. Instead, by outlining its inclination for 'variable Reverse Repo Auctions with a preference for longer term tenors’ HSBC said in a research note.

FRBM panel recommends 3% fiscal deficit target for FY18-FY20 - The Government should target a fiscal deficit of 3 per cent of the GDP in years up to March 31, 2020, the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Committee has recommended. The report of the committee, headed by N K Singh, was submitted to the government in January this year but was made public in 12 April. It recommended fiscal deficit to be cut to 2.8 per cent in 2020-21 fiscal and to 2.5 per cent by FY 2023. The panel, However, suggested "escape clause" in case of over-riding consideration of national security, acts of war, calamities of national proportion and collapse of agriculture severely affecting farm output and incomes. Also, "far-reaching structural reforms in the economy with unanticipated fiscal implications" too can trigger deviation from the targets. "The deviations from the stipulated fiscal deficit target shall not exceed 0.5 percentage points in a year," it said.

Factory output shrinks 1.2% in February; retail inflation at five-month high in March - Industrial growth contracted unexpectedly in February while consumer inflation quickened to a five-month high in March, a double setback for the Indian economy as it enters the new financial year. Industrial production shrank 1.2% in February against a 3.3 % rise in January, data released by the statistics office showed. Consumer inflation accelerated to 3.81% in March largely due to increased fuel prices, according to data separately released by the department. The Reserve Bank of India last week kept interest rates unchanged citing inflation risks. Experts see price volatility as a looming threat although newer data suggest industrial growth should improve.


? TOP ECONOMY NEWS
The cash level in the economy has lowered by 26% in comparison with the demonetisation period, post November 8, 2016, with the authorities keeping a close watch on the cash flow in the economy. Moreover the cash withdrawals across the country have come down too, even as the withdrawal caps were lifted in March, due to digital transactions being on the rise.

In a recent development, the custodians mainly comprising of the foreign banks have demanded a General Anti Avoidance Rule certificate from consultants including the big four firms. The GAAR certificate aims to curb tax evasion by the foreign investors, and is likely to be used by the big firms to prove that their clients are exempted from its application.

Along with a hike in the benchmark equity indices, the inflow of Foreign Institutional Investments also struck a record high in the economy. In the month of March, the economy recorded the highest monthly FII’s inflow as they bought equities worth Rs. 30,906 crore. While, even the debt market saw an FII investment of Rs. 25,354.8 crore in March 2017.

Agriculture lender Nabard plans to raise Rs. 50,000 crore in the current fiscal, up from Rs. 40,000 crore it raised in 2016-17 as it aims to achieve the government's Rs. 10 lakh crore target lending for agriculture by the fiscal ending March 2018.

The outlook on the asset quality of the Indian banking sector seems to be weak even as the fresh Non-Performing Asset generation rate continues to show signs of moderation with the annualised fresh NPA generation declining to 4.1% during Q3 FY2017 as compared with 10.7% during Q4 FY2016, 6.1% during Q1 FY2017 and 5.8% during Q2 FY2017.

Even as the effect of demonetisation is fading in the economy, India Inc.'s performance of Q4FY17 is likely to be in line with its dynamics of the previous quarter. The two-wheelers, real estate and consumer goods segments are recovering. However, export-driven sectors such as information technology and pharmaceuticals are likely to record a muted output.

India's core consumer price inflation was seen at 4.8 percent-4.9 percent in March from a year earlier, largely in line with an estimated 4.8 percent in February, according to a snap survey.

India's annual consumer price inflation climbed up to 3.81 percent in March, government data showed on Wednesday. Economists polled it had expected last month's annual retail inflation to come in at 3.98 percent, compared with 3.65 percent in February.

? TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Tata Motors reported about 9 per cent rise in global sales in March at 1,29,951 units, including that of Jaguar Land Rover vehicles. The company had sold 1,18,750 units in March 2016, Tata Motors said in a statement.

Consumer electronic major Panasonic said it will set up R&D unit in Bengaluru in association with Tata Elxsi Limited to strengthen its appliances business in domestic and global markets.

The proposed restructuring of the RP Sanjiv Goenka Group flagship company CESC Limited is expected in May and the company has decided not to infuse fresh funds into power generation.

HDFC Bank Limited, the largest private sector lender, is set to raise Rs. 50,000 crore in a year’s timeframe through the private placement mode. The Bank is expected to raise the amount through the issue of perpetual debt instruments, which is a part of additional tier I capital, tier II capital bonds and senior long-term infra bonds together contributing Rs 50,000 crore.

Drug firm Ajanta Pharma Limited said the US health regulator has successfully completed inspection of its Dahej facility. "Company's formulation facility at Dahej was inspected by USFDA from April 3 to 7, 2017," Ajanta Pharma said in a filing to Exchange.

The US FDA has issued an Establishment Inspection Report for the Shilpa Medicare Limited Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient manufacturing facilities located at Raichur in the state of Karnataka which was inspected between December 12 and December 16, 2016.

Reliance Defence & Engineering company reported a net loss in Q4 March 2017 as per BSE filings. The result announced Reliance Defence & Engineering reported a net loss of Rs. 139.92 crore as per the audited standalone financial results for the quarter & year ended March 2017.

The Reserve Bank has imposed a penalty of Rs 20 lakh on Shriram City Union Finance and Rs 5 lakh penalty on Hinduja Leyland Finance for violating fair practices code guidelines.

ITC Limited is overhauling its foods portfolio to invigorate its market share in categories that have been showing signs of fatigue more than a decade after the cigarette maker challenged the dominance of most packaged food companies in the country.

State-owned NBCC will help develop a social housing project and construct a new Supreme Court building in Mauritius, which together are estimated to cost USD 50 million.

Infosys Limited reported standalone results for the quarter, registered a miss versus street estimates. Revenue for the quarter came in 13.4 % lower than the estimated figure of Rs. 17235 crores. Also, net profit for the quarter came in 0.2 % lower than the estimated figure of Rs. 3570 crores. Infosys’ standalone revenue for the quarter came in at Rs. 14920 crores, registering 0.2% Q-o-Q decline.

Emami Limited a flagship venture of the Kolkata-based Emami Group, has initiated a huge restructuring of its distribution network, and is planning to cut dependence on the wholesale network, putting its products directly on retail shelves.

Jubilant Life Sciences Limited may acquire cancer and body imaging company in the US. The deal may be for a consideration of 150-200 million Dollars.


? TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
Cash levels in the economy remained at least 26% less than what they were before demonetisation as policy makers are keeping a close watch on the new currency that’s flooding the system. Weekly cash withdrawals too have slowed down after the caps on withdrawals were lifted early March.

The Central Bank of India said no deadline has been set for introduction of Sharia or interest-free banking in India, the Reserve Bank of India has said.

Banks have been cutting rates in the recent times as they want to use liquidity available with them, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in the Rajya Sabha as some parties, including ruling NDA, said demonetisation did not have positive impact on credit growth.

Kerala-based Federal Bank has crossed $ 200 million in total business at its IFSC Banking Unit in Gift City, Gujarat, the bank said. Federal Bank commissioned its IFSC Banking Unit in India's first International Financial Service Centre in GIFT City in November 2015.

Currency in circulation continues to rise at a snail's pace even after the Reserve Bank of India withdrew restrictions on cash withdrawals from banks in early March.

The outlook on the asset quality of the Indian banking sector seems to be weak even as the fresh Non-Performing Asset generation rate continues moderate, according to ratings firm Icra. Annualised fresh NPA generation declined to 4.1% during October-December’16 quarter compared with 10.7% during January-March’16 quarter.





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