Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 27 Febuary 2017

Indian Equity Benchmark Index Nifty closed at 8822 after making high of 8896 in last week; the Index has given breakout of its 4 month high of 8806

Indian Equity Benchmark Index Nifty closed at 8822 after making high of 8896 in last week; the Index has given breakout of its 4 month high of 8806. Next monthly level for the Nifty Index is at 8969. The Nifty closed in positive territory by gaining 0.32%. Market took major trigger from International market as US President Donald Trump announced that he is soon reveal new tax reform. Market open on flat note on Monday trading Session tracking strong global cues and cash market. Some profit booking have seen due to F&O Expiry but every dip would be an opportunity for traders to go long in the market. Now, market is headed towards new 52 week highs. Traders should go long at every dip in the market until it holds 8770 levels, Technically, Indian Stock Market is still in positive zone. F&O Expiry volatility is not ruled out and we may see some sharp profit booking but traders can go long at every dip in the market. Once Nifty closes below 8862 levels then traders can close all long positions and initiate short positions in the market but until then every downfall would be an opportunity for traders to go long in the market. The Market sentiment may be boosted by a dovish FOMC minutes but hawkish Reserve Bank of India MPC Minutes & Cautious IMF stance on India’ Growth may also cap any significant Upside. The Significance levels for Nifty is 8980-9060
is up side and 8850-8760 is Down side.
BANK NIFTY : -The Bank Nifty has opened on a Negative note on Monday trading session down by 57 points or 0.27 per cent at 20494. Bank Nifty has made a life time high of 21042 on the news that Reserve Bank of India has withdrawn the limit for purchase of shares of HDFC Bank. It is the major constituent of Bank Nifty with a weightage of 31.66% in the index. However the index closed at 20551,around 490 points down from its high. Bank Nifty remained strong on Tuesday trading Session. It opened at 20495, around 50 points down from its previous day’s close, made a low of 20472 and give strong closing of 20677. Technically, Bank Nifty has to sustain over 20750 area for further rally towards 21050-21200. On the flip side, sustaining below 20800 zone, Bank Nifty may fall towards 20650-20500 area in the near term.












NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
? TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Indian economy to reach $5 trillion by 2025: Morgan Stanley - India's millennial population is a massive disruptive force and driven by this supportive demographics alongwith government's policy action, Indian economy is likely to reach USD 5 trillion by 2025, says a report. India's USD 2.2 trillion economy makes it the seventh largest in the world in terms of nominal GDP (and the third largest in PPP terms), but the country's per capita income is less significant. With a per capita income of USD 1,700, India ranks well behind some of the key emerging markets, like China, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Mexico, and Turkey. We expect a confluence of supportive factors, led by demographics, government policy action, and globalisation, to lead to a sustained period of productive growth in the medium term," Morgan Stanley said in a research note adding "in our base case, we expect the Indian economy to reach USD 5 trillion by FY2025.

India emerges 12th largest holder of US Govt securities in 2016 - India became the 12th largest holder of US government securities at the end of 2016, with exposure worth USD 118.2 billion. With holdings worth USD 1.09 trillion, Japan remained the largest holder of these securities followed by neighbouring China with exposure to the tune of USD 1.06 trillion. Latest data available with the US Treasury Department showed that India's holding stood at USD 118.2 billion in December last, slightly lower than USD 118.7 billion seen in November. At the end of December 2015, India's exposure was to the tune of USD 116.8 billion.

With $36 billion in nine months, FDI may deliver a record - Overseas investment in India is likely to surge to a record in the year ending March despite temporary growth hiccups ascribed to the currency swap programme. This underscores India’s status as an island of economic stability, especially as foreign direct investment flows worldwide slumped 13% last year amid uncertainty thanks in part to a backlash against globalisation. India’s FDI in the April-December period rose 22% to $35.8 billion from the year earlier. With three months to go for the fiscal year end, the government expects fresh inflows into equity to top the $ 40 billion India got in FY16. Total FDI — which includes inflows into unincorporated bodies, reinvested earnings and other capital — in the nine months to December is pegged at $ 48 billion against $ 55.5 billion for the whole of the last fiscal year.
Q3 '17 GDP estimate likely to be less than 6%: SBI report - The growth estimate in the country’s economic output or gross domestic product may be scaled down to less than 6% for the FY’17 as the impact of demonetisation hurt consumption and output, says a report by State Bank of India’s research team. But FY’18 growth could move up faster if demand comes back faster post remonetisation. “We estimate that Q3’17 GDP growth will be at 5.8% and Q4 it will recover to 6.4%. For FY17, we believe GDP growth will recover to 6.4%.” said the SBI research report. The SBI report attributes the downward revision of growth estimate to demonetisation which will have short-term negative impact on growth numbers though in the long-run growth will increase as formalisation of economy increases and remonetisation happens at a faster pace.

India banking bailout cost "manageable" - IMF - The cost of recapitalising India's struggling banks would be affordable even under a negative scenario, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, urging government steps to strengthen the financial system. Weighing into a renewed debate on tackling India's $130 billion in stressed loans, the IMF said "recapitalisation costs should be manageable" at between 1.5 and 2.4 percent of forecast GDP. Of that total, the government's share would be between 1.0 and 1.6 percent of gross domestic product over the four years to March 2019, assuming that 40 percent of loans have to be provided against. India's finance ministry earlier backed a call by the Reserve Bank of India to set up a "bad bank", saying urgency was needed to address troubled loans weighing on the banking sector.

GST adoption could raise India's GDP to over 8%: IMF - The adoption of the GST could help raise India's medium-term GDP growth to over eight per cent and create a single national market for enhancing the efficiency of the movement of goods and services, the IMF said today. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund also expressed concerns over the implementation of the Goods and Service Tax. Although some uncertainties remain around the design and pace of implementation of the GST, its adoption is poised to help raise India's medium-term GDP growth to above 8 per cent as it will create a single national market and enhance the efficiency of intra-Indian movement of goods and services," the IMF said in its annual country report on India. The IMF said larger than expected gains from the GST and further structural reforms could lead to significantly stronger growth, while a sustained period of continued low global energy prices would also be beneficial to India.

Brexit could help India-EU FTA: Report - Britain's exit from the European Union is likely to positively impact the economic bloc's long- drawn negotiations over a free trade agreement with India, according to a leaked document drawn up by the members of the EU parliament. The document drawn up by Members of the European Parliament in the EU's influential trade committee points to British Prime Minister Theresa May's stringent visa policy towards Indian professionals as a major stumbling block to the FTA, which has been in the works since 1997.


India to be fastest growing economy among G-20 nations: Moody's - India will be the fastest growing economy among G-20 countries clocking a 7.1 per cent growth in 2017, Moody's Investors Service said today. The Indian economy had slowed in the fourth quarter of 2016 due to the withdrawal of 86 per cent of the currency in circulation -- without an immediate replacement. "India is forecast to have the fastest growing economy among all G-20 countries with growth put at 7.1 per cent for 2017, down from a previous expectation of 7.5 per cent because of the effects of demonetisation," Moody's said.


? TOP ECONOMY NEWS
The Finance Ministry is giving final touches to infusing around Rs 8,000 crore in public sector banks as part of its second and final tranche for the current fiscal, 2015-16. The second round of capital infusion is almost ready and in the next few days it should go to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley for approval, sources said. The entire process should be over within a fortnight and then the respective bank would start receiving funds, sources added.

The cost of recapitalising India's struggling banks would be affordable even under a negative scenario, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, urging government steps to strengthen the financial system.

Faster remonetisation and return of discretionary consumer demand will push economic activity in the latter part the fiscal, opined RBI Governor Urjit Patel while voting for no cut in interest rate earlier this month.

The domestic direct selling industry is estimated to grow around three folds to cross Rs 25,000 crore mark by 2024-15 on burgeoning income, demographic dividend and favourable policy environment. The growth momentum would also be supported by factors as growing urbanisation and widening acceptance of the industry, the annual report released by the Indian Direct Selling Association in association with PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry said.

The Reserve Bank of India's six-member monetary policy committee cited concerns about inflation in holding rates in February, with three of them specifying the need to shift the policy stance to "neutral" from "accommodative," according to minutes from the meeting.

Wealthy investors continued to repose faith in portfolio managers or advisory services as the assets under management of such entities rose to about Rs 12 lakh crore in the Indian capital market at January-end.
It also marks the 13th consecutive monthly rise in asset base of portfolio managers.

The economy based on the gross value added is set to slip to 6.2 per cent in the December quarter from 6.9 per cent a year ago, and GDP growth will decline to 6.5 per cent from 7.2 per cent, said domestic rating agency Icra today.

The government hopes to overshoot the Rs. 45,500 crore disinvestment target for the current fiscal amid strengthening of equity markets.
Sources said the Finance Ministry cleared disinvestment in two more PSUs last week. "The response to recent disinvestment offers has been very good. It seems the disinvestment target for the current fiscal may be exceeded," one of the officials said.

Wholesale inflation shot up to a 30-month high of 5.25 per cent in January as rising global crude oil prices spiked domestic fuel cost, even as food prices moderated. The wholesale price index based inflation, reflecting the annual rate of price rise, in December stood at 3.39 per cent. In January 2016, the print was (-)1.07 per cent. The last comparable high level of WPI was witnessed in July 2014 at 5.41 per cent.
The government has made no provision for its ambitious India Aspiration Fund, part of StartUp India initiative, for the next financial year and has reduced the allocation to Rs 100 crore from Rs 600 crore made earlier for the current fiscal.

The overall trade deficit has risen to $17.8 billion in Oct-Dec 2016 from $ 9.4 billion a quarter ago, according to provisional data released by RBI and Ministry of Commerce and Industry. In October-December 2015, the overall trade deficit was $ 16 billion. The trade deficit increased sharply on a Q-o-Q basis as gold imports spiked and crude oil prices firmed up. In October-December 2016 gold imports more than doubled to $ 9.8 billion from $ 4.0 billion.


? TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Bharti Airtel Limited India's largest telecommunications services provider, on Thursday said it has signed a definitive agreement with Telenor South Asia Investments Pte Ltd to acquire Telenor India Communications Private Ltd.

Havells India is in advance negotiations with Lloyd Electric and Engineering Limited to acquire its consumer durables business for around Rs. 1200 -1500 crore, to get a toehold in the fast growing Indian air conditioners market that is dominated by global brands, said multiple sources involved.

Asian Paints Limited today said its subsidiary Berger International will fully acquire Sri Lanka's Causeway Paints in an all cash deal. "Berger International Pvt Ltd, Singapore, indirect subsidiary of the company, has entered into a share purchase agreement with the existing shareholders of Causeway Paints Lanka Ltd, Sri Lanka, for acquisition of 100 per cent stake in CPLPL in an all cash deal," Asian Paints Ltd said in a BSE filing.

State-run power producer NTPC Limited today said It has commissioned 115 MW capacity out of 260 MW of Bhadla Solar Power Project. "With this, the installed capacity of NTPC's solar power projects touches 475 MW. The total installed capacity of NTPC on standalone basis has become 41,177 MW and that of NTPC group has become 48,143 MW," NTPC said.

The Competition Commission today said it has approved the GE Pacific buying 49 per cent stake in Alstom Bharat Forge Limited Power and four other deals. The acquisition of certain retail businesses of Heritage Foods Limited by Kishore Biyani group firm Future Retail Limited has also received the green signal from the regulator.

The stake sale in state-owned aerospace and defence company Bharat Electronics Limited saw strong demand from institutional buyers which placed bids worth over Rs. 3,100 crore on the first day of the offer today. The share sale attracted bids for over 2.09 crore shares as against 89.34 lakh shares offered to institutional investors, garnering subscription of 2.34 times, according to the stock exchange data.

Ratings agency S&P expects IT services major Tata Consultancy Services to remain net cash positive even if its Rs. 16,000 crore-buyback offer gets fully subscribed. The ratings and outlook on Tata Consultancy Services are not affected by the company's Rs. 16,000 crore offer for share repurchases, Standard & Poor's said in a statement.

IT major Cyient Limited on Wednesday announced that it has inked a Memorandum of Understanding with US-based engineering simulation services provider ANSYS Inc to set up a simulation lab at Cyient's experience enter in the city.

Ambuja Cement reported a 85.24 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit of Rs 205.70 crore for the fourth quarter ended December 30, 2016. Part of the Swiss cement giant LafargeHolcim, the company has clocked a net profit of Rs 111.04 crore in the year-ago period, Ambuja said in a BSE filing.

FMCG firm Nestle India, is looking to diversify into new segments like premium coffee business, pet care, skin health and cereals while it looks at 2017 as a "year of aggression". It is also planning consolidating its offerings and adding new categories so as continue with double digit growth.

Infrastructure company Punj Lloyd today said it has won Rs 348 crore projects, including Rs 139 crores order from Adani and Rs 209 crore pipeline contract from Mumbai Port Trust. "The company has received letter of award from from Adani for EPCC (design, engineering, construction and commissioning) of refrigerated double wall storage tanks and mounded bullets for its LPG Terminal at Mundra," Punj Lloyd said in a press release.

State-owned Indian Oil Corporation has threatened to reconsider plans to invest Rs. 52,000 crore on expansion of Paradip refinery in Odisha and setting up a petrochem project as the state government is withdrawing tax sops. Indian Oil Corporation plans to expand the 15 million tonne a year Paradip refinery by 5 MT as well as set up a Polypropylene Plant and a monoethylene glycol production facility at the site of the one-year old refinery.

Petronet LNG Limited, India's biggest liquefied natural gas importer, has more than doubled its net profit to Rs. 397 crore in the third quarter ended December 31 as it handled record volumes of imported gas. Net profit in October-December at Rs. 397 crore was 133 per cent higher than Rs. 171 crore in the same period a year ago, Petronet Managing Director Prabhat Singh told reporters here.

Maruti Suzuki Limited is racing ahead of the pack in making its vehicles compliant to new crash regulations.

Wipro Limited 's consumer care and lighting business will expand its range of products to detergents, energy drinks and fabric conditioners, intensifying competition in sectors dominated by global giants Hindustan Unilever and Procter & Gamble.

PepsiCo's bottler Varun Beverages Limited today said it has hiked stake in its Zambia subsidiary, Varun Beverages Limited, to 90 per cent.



? TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
The idea of setting up a state-owned asset reconstruction company or a bank to deal with mounting bad loans is gaining traction and it needs to be created quickly, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian said on Wednesday. “Essentially, there seems like a growing convergence towards the idea (of state-backed asset reconstruction company). The broad idea that we should do like this is gaining traction,” he said.
Sufficient cash in both rural areas and cities, along with some bold and pragmatic decisions on issues like bank' Non-Performing Assets will be key drivers for reverting to eight per cent growth of the Indian economy, a leading industry lobby said here on Wednesday.

IDFC Bank is creating a renewable energy niche in loans, sanctioning Rs. 675 crore to a Rajasthan-based solar power project owned by French company Solairedirect.
The Reserve Bank of India is proposing its toughest measures yet to recover loans from defaulters by prescribing December deadline for the loan restructuring of top 50 defaulters in a way that the assets turn viable and also in an environment where vigilance departments do not stifle the right economic outcome.

The Finance Ministry has not received any communication with regard to reported merger of Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank Limited, a senior official said. Mergers of private banks do not come to Finance Ministry, rather it is for the regulator to see, said another official. "We are not aware of any such plans. We have not received any expression of interest for Axis Bank by any company," the official said, when asked about reports on merger of Kotak Mahindra Bank with Axis Bank.
India’s state-owned general insurance giants Oriental Insurance, National Insurance, and United India Insurance, who together have 34 per cent of the total market share and underwriting total direct premium of over Rs. 33,000 crore, are likely to be merged to create a stronger entity to fetch better valuations at the time of listing.
The Government is all set to bail out IDBI Bank with a Rs. 3,000-crore capital infusion to help it maintain a healthy capital-adequacy ratio and pursue credit growth. The government has already said it is still open to bring down its stake in the bank to below 50 per cent.

Top private sector lenders including ICICI Bank and Axis Bank Limited may see more bad loans chocking their earnings growth in coming quarters, said Moody’s Investors Service in a note. While we have been expecting asset quality to deteriorate for both, we had expected the deterioration to come predominantly from their watchlist accounts


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