Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 16 January 2017

Gold prices started the week higher on Monday, rallying to the strongest level in around two months as investors looked ahead to a highly-anticipated speech by British Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration later this week

Gold prices started the week higher on Monday, rallying to the strongest level in around two months as investors looked ahead to a highly-anticipated speech by British Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration later this week. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange touched a session peak of $1,208.70 a troy ounce, a level not seen since November 23. It was last at $1,202.95 by 3:10AM ET (08:10GMT), up almost $7.00, or 0.6%. The British pound tumbled more than 1% against the dollar to a three-month low following media reports that suggested Prime Minister Theresa May's government was prepared to make a "clean and hard" exit from the European Union, ahead of her speech Tuesday. A report in The Sunday Times newspaper said that May was willing to quit the European Union's single market in order to regain control of Britain's borders. May has previously stated she will trigger Article 50, which starts the formal withdrawal process from the European Union, by the end of March, but so far has given few details about what deal she will be seeking. Meanwhile, global financial markets will continue to focus on U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump as he takes the Oath of Office and offers his inaugural address on Friday. Investors will welcome any detail he may give on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and deregulation, as well as insight regarding policies on China and the domestic economy. President-elect Trump has been credited with being a major catalyst behind the impressive rally in U.S. shares and the dollar since election day, although he has yet to outline his economic policies in detail. Markets were disappointed last week after Trump failed to offer details on his promises to boost fiscal spending and cut taxes at a highly-anticipated news conference. The precious metal has been well-supported in recent sessions amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate hikes this year. The Fed had indicated in December that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017, according to a forecast of interest rates from members of the central bank, known as the dot-plot. However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, and negative for the dollar. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery was up 8.3 cents, or 0.5%, at $16.84 a troy ounce during morning hours in London.
Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.1% to $986.40, while palladium advanced 0.4% to $751.75 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures dipped 0.4 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.686 a pound.
Gold ended lower on Friday as investors took profits after prices hit a seven-week peak in the previous session, but still notched up a third consecutive weekly gain.
Gold for February delivery settled down 0.21% at $1,195.3 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal was still 1.98% higher for the week, helped by a broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index posted its largest weekly decline since late October, shedding 1.0% as optimism cooled over President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policy proposals.
The drop in the dollar came after Trump disappointed traders who had been hoping he would address economic and fiscal policies in his first formal news conference as U.S. president-elect. The dollar had rallied to 14-year peaks earlier this month on expectations that Trump's policies would spur growth and inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly. Trump will officially take office on January 20. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $16.83 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week with gains of 1.69%. Copper was up 1.29% at $2.70 a pound and ended the week up 6.62% on hopes for increased demand from top consumer China. Platinum was up 0.31% on the day at $987.75 an ounce and was up 1.53% for the week. In the week ahead, financial markets will continue to focus on U.S. President-elect Trump ahead of his inauguration on Friday. Investors will be looking ahead to Thursday’ policy announcement by the European Central bank and Chinese data on fourth quarter growth, due for release on Friday. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 16

U.S. financial markets will be closed for Martin Luther King Day.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at an event in London.

Tuesday, January 17

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.
The U.K. is to release data on inflation.
The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

New York Fed President William Dudley is to speak at an event in New York and the U.S. is also to release the Empire state manufacturing index.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is due to speak about starting proceedings for Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Wednesday, January 18

The U.K. is to publish its monthly jobs report.
The euro zone is to release revised data on inflation.
The U.S. is to publish figures on inflation and industrial production. Later in the day,
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in San Francisco.

The Bank of Canada is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and hold a press conference to discuss the economic outlook.


Thursday, January 19

Australia is to publish its monthly employment report.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
Canada is to report on manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.
The U.S. is to release a series of reports, including data on building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Stanford.

Friday, January 20
China is to release data on fourth quarter growth as well as figures on industrial production.
The U.K. is to release data on retail sales. Canada is to round up the week with data on retail sales.Physical gold sales eased in Asia this week as steadily higher prices kept buyers on the sidelines and premiums remained mostly unchanged across the continent. In India, the world's second-largest consumer of the metal, higher prices prompted retail buyers to postpone purchases for wedding season. "The volatility in prices is confusing buyers. Many buyers are waiting for prices to stabilise," said Harmesh Arora, a Mumbai-based bullion dealer. In local market gold prices MAUc1 were trading around 28,365 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees last month, the lowest level since Feb. 2 last year. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, unchanged from the previous week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Jewellers are not making big purchases as they are expecting import duty cut in the budget," . The bullion industry has been urging a reduction in the duty to combat smuggling, which has increased since India raised import duty to 10 percent in August 2013 in an effort to narrow a gaping current account deficit. The Indian government will present its budget on Feb. 1 for the 2017/18 financial year starting Apr. 1. imports in December fell 71 percent from a year ago to 31 tonnes as a cash crunch squeezed demand. In China, the world's top gold consumer, gold was sold at a premium of around $ 17 to the global benchmark XAU= , almost unchanged from last week. "The demand is not too hot as prices touched $ 1,200 this week and people are just in the wait-and-watch mode," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. "There is a bit of slowdown in sales in China. It tapers down further in the week to Chinese New Year. Gold fell on Friday after hitting a seven-week peak in the previous session as the dollar edged up and a technical correction set in, but it was still set to end higher for a third straight week. other gold trading centres, bullion was sold at a premium of $1-$ 1.50 an ounce in Hong Kong and Singapore, nearly unchanged from last week. Prices in Tokyo, however, were at a discount of $1 per ounce this week. "Higher gold prices in Japan are leading people to sell gold rather than buy," a Tokyo-based retailer said.

Gold prices slipped lower on Friday, pulling away from a seven-week high as the U.S. dollar regained some strength, although ongoing U.S. political uncertainties continued to support demand for the safe-haven precious metal. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery were down 0.31% at $1,196.15, just off Thursday’s seven-week high of $ 1,204.30. The February contract ended Thursday’s session 0.22% lower at $1,130.70 an ounce.
Futures were likely to find support at $1,176.50, Wednesday’s low and resistance at $1,204.30, Thursday’s high. The dollar found some support after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy is doing well and faces no serious obstacles in the short term, with the labor market looking strong. Ms. Yellen was speaking at a town hall meeting with educators, in Washington.
A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. But the greenback was still under heavy pressure since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump failed to offer details on his promises to boost fiscal spending and cut taxes at a highly-anticipated news conference on Wednesday. The dollar was also hit after St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard said on Thursday that the election of Donald Trump has not yet switched the U.S. economy to a new "regime" that requires a quick rise in interest rates, which can remain "fairly low" at least through 2017. "any effects from the new administration's policies are only likely to be observed in 2018 and 2019." Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for March delivery declined 0.46% to $16.748 a troy ounce, while copper futures for March delivery fell 0.28% to $2.665 a pound.
Gold surged above $ 1,200 an ounce to its highest in seven weeks on Thursday as the dollar fell after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's long-awaited news conference gave few details on economic policy. But analysts warned that gold's revival since mid-December may be running out of steam as the dollar was likely to rebound once Trump moves ahead with his economic plans. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.5 percent at $ 1,197.64 an ounce by 2:35 p.m. EST , after touching $ 1,206.98, its loftiest since Nov. 23. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.3 percent at $ 1,199.80 per ounce.
Trump delivered a wide-ranging briefing on Wednesday that lasted longer than expected but contained no details on tax cuts and infrastructure spending, analysts said. sent the dollar index .DXY sliding to the lowest in nearly five weeks. "It's a mess frankly, which is a reflection of the fact that there's no clarity on U.S. economic policy," "For the time being, I'm sticking to my thesis that this move can go a bit further, but we're running out of steam." Gold is up around 7 percent since hitting a 10-1/2-month low on Dec. 15. "Despite moving back to $1,200 per ounce, we see no lasting recovery for gold," said Carsten Menke, commodities research analyst at Julius Baer in Switzerland.
"The market lacked support from physical buying ... which we believe is a precondition for a lasting recovery." The outlook for U.S. rates may become a little clearer when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen appears at a webcast town hall meeting with educators on Thursday. election has introduced a proliferation of unknowns, which the market will have to work through as they surface," "Overall, while we are cautiously optimistic on gold for the year, we still think the real reason to buy gold is as a risk overlay - a hedge against moves like these."
Spot silver XAG= was up 0.4 percent at $16.79 an ounce after hitting a four-week high of $16.98. Platinum XPT= climbed 0.6 percent to $978.30, after touching a high of $990.10, its strongest since Nov. 10.

Gold prices rallied to a seven-week high on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar sank after President-elect Donald Trump's highly-anticipated press conference failed to offer details on his plans to boost fiscal spending and cut taxes. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange touched a session peak of $ 1,202.35 a troy ounce, a level not seen since November 23.
It was last at $1,200.65 by 3:20AM ET , up almost $4.00, or 0.3%, after ending Wednesday's session up $11.10, or around 1%. In his first press briefing as U.S. president-elect on Wednesday, Trump failed to give details on some of his economic policies, particularly deregulation, lower corporate taxes and fiscal stimulus, disappointing the dollar bulls. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to a one-month low of 101.01 in early trade. It was last down 0.6% at 101.08, pulling further away from last week's 14-year high of 103.82. Trump has been credited with being a major catalyst behind the impressive rally since election day in the dollar and stocks, although he has yet to outline his economic policies in detail. He will officially take office on January 20. The precious metal has been well-supported in recent sessions after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting unsettled investors’ expectations about the pace of future interest rate hikes. A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, and negative for the dollar.

Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. The Fed had indicated in December that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017, according to a forecast of interest rates from members of the central bank, known as the dot-plot. However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Global financial markets will turn their attention to a flurry of Fed speakers on Thursday, most notably Chair Janet Yellen, as traders look for more clues on the likelihood of higher interest rates later this year. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery was up 11.0 cents, or 0.6%, at $16.93 a troy ounce during morning hours in London. Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 1.4% to a nine-week high of $990.50, while palladium advanced 0.9% to $760.80 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures added 1.9 cents, or 0.8%, to a one-month peak of $2.630 a pound.
Gold prices rose to a six-week high on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar weakened amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest-rate hikes. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange touched a session peak of $1,187.65 a troy ounce, a level not seen since November 30. It was last at $1,184.25 by 3:10AM ET, down less than $1.00, after gaining $11.50, or around 1%, on Monday. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.2% at 101.72 in early trade. The index fell to as low as 101.48, pulling further away from last week's 14-year high of 103.82. Gold has been well-supported in recent sessions after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting unsettled investors’ expectations about the pace of future interest rate hikes. A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, and negative for the dollar. Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. The Fed had indicated in December that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017, according to a forecast of interest rates from members of the central bank, known as the dot-plot. However, traders remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Global financial markets will continue to focus on key U.S. reports in the week ahead, with Friday’s retail sales data in the spotlight. In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap, including Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, as traders look for more clues on the likelihood of higher interest rates later this year. Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is to hold a press conference on Wednesday, which investors will be watching for any hints about the possible direction of economic policy. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery shed 0.2 cents, or less than 0.1%, to $16.66 a troy ounce during morning hours in London. Meanwhile, platinum dipped 0.5% to $977.65, while palladium advanced 0.55% to $761.33 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures rallied 3.1 cents, or 1.24%, to $2.570 a pound.
Gold prices inched up toward a four-week high on Monday, as market players awaited further evidence to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs in the months ahead. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $3.55, or 0.3%, to $1,176.95 a troy ounce by 3:45AM ET , after falling $7.90, or around 0.7%, on Friday. Prices of the yellow metal touched $1,185.90 last Wednesday, a level not seen since December 5. Gold tallied a gain of about 2% last week, its best weekly performance in two months, after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting unsettled investors’ expectations about the pace of future interest rate hikes. U.S. jobs data released Friday showed a slowdown in hiring in December but a pickup in wage growth. The Labor Department said Friday the U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in December, falling short of economists forecast for jobs growth of 178,000. The report also showed that the annual rate of wage growth rose to 2.9% in December from a year earlier, the strongest since 2009.
The employment data indicated that the economy is improving enough for the Fed to keep pushing up interest rates. However, traders remained unconvinced of the U.S. central bank's projection of three rate hikes in 2017. Instead, investors are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Global financial markets will continue to focus on key U.S. reports in the week ahead, with Friday’s retail sales data in the spotlight. In addition, there are a handful of Fed speakers on tap, including Chair Janet Yellen, as traders look for more clues on the likelihood of higher interest rates later this year. Meanwhile, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is to hold a press conference which investors will be watching for any hints about the possible direction of economic policy. Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery added 0.8 cents, or less than 0.1%, to $16.53 a troy ounce during morning hours in London. Meanwhile, platinum rose 0.7% to $977.20, while palladium advanced 0.45% to $761.70 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures were little changed at $2.545 a pound.

Gold edged up slightly in a technical rebound on Monday after one-month highs hit last week were undercut by the prospects of more interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Spot gold XAU= edged 0.1 percent higher to $1,174.23 an ounce by 0715 GMT. Gold gained nearly two percent last week, its biggest weekly rise since early November, although it fell on Friday as Fed officials commented on data that pointed to an improving U.S. economy. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were up 0.1 percent at $1,174.10 per ounce. "Some kind of rebound in gold prices is still in place. "However, the impact of monetary policy changes like rising U.S. interest rates will be felt gradually and the quick rebound in gold price should be finished."
Spot gold is up nearly 5 percent from mid-December, when it touched 10-month lows.
"Seasonally, January is a very bullish month for gold," The Chinese New Year this month is expected to increase physical buying. A slight correction in the dollar index from its recent highs also helped gold prices, he added. The dollar surged to 103.820, its highest level since December 2002 last week. Spot gold may retest a resistance at $1,182 per ounce, a break above which could open the way towards $1,219 an ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. U.S. employment increased less than expected in December, U.S. jobs data on Friday showed a rebound in wages, pointing to sustained labour market momentum. Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Friday the central bank could raise interest rates three times this year, faster than he had expected just a few months ago. and other regional Fed presidents are scheduled to speak this week, and the outlook for U.S. rates may become even clearer when Chair Janet Yellen appears at a webcast town hall meeting with educators on Thursday. long as the U.S. economic data is good, people are expecting rate hikes to be more hawkish and short gold at $1,200 levels," Expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes lowers demand for the non-interest-paying bullion. Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish positions in COMEX gold contracts for the eighth straight week in the week to Jan. 3, taking their holdings to the smallest in 11 months, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. other precious metals, silver XAG= shed 0.2 percent to $16.44 an ounce, while platinum XPT= gained 0.3 percent at $969.99. Palladium XPD= was up over one percent at 766.20 an ounce, after hitting its highest in more than a month at $768.10 earlier in the session.

? ENERGY
Oil prices were steady on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar, although doubts that OPEC and other producers would fully implement announced crude output cuts held the market back. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 55.40 per barrel at 0758 GMT, within 0.1 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $ 52.32 a barrel, also within 0.1 percent of their last settlement. Traders said that oil received some support from a weaker dollar, which makes fuel purchases cheaper for countries that use other currencies domestically, potentially spurring demand. After spending much of the second half of 2016 in an upward trend, the dollar has fallen around 2.5 percent against a basket of other leading currencies . DXY since its early-January peak.
The greenback is in particular focus this week as Donald Trump is set to take office as the next U.S. president on Friday. "Oil pricing will be driven this week by the movement of the U.S. dollar rather than crude itself, with President-elect Trump's inauguration ... being the main event. But traders said that doubts over full implementation of an announced crude output cut from major producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia were holding back oil prices. OPEC has said it would reduce its output by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million bpd from Jan. 1, and Russia as well as other Non-OPEC members are planning to cut about half as much again. Russian oil and gas condensate production averaged 11.1 million bpd from Jan. 1-15, two energy industry sources said on Monday, down just 100,000 bpd from December. Russia has committed to a 300,000 bpd cut during the first half of 2017 as a part of a global deal with OPEC. Rising U.S. oil output is also preventing crude from climbing further. Goldman Sachs said it expected year-on-year U.S. oil production to rise by 235,000 bpd in 2017, taking into account wells that have been drilled and are likely to start producing in the first half of the year. Overall U.S. oil output stands at 8.95 million bpd, up from less than 8.5 million bpd in June last year and back at similar levels to 2014, when OPEC decided to start a price war against U.S. shale producers and sent the market into a tailspin.
India's fuel consumption is likely to hit 200 million tonnes in 2016/17, an oil ministry executive said on Monday, in what would be the highest such level in at least 16 years."Demand for petroleum products is increasing as the economy grows. India has the best growth amongst the large economies in the world ... we have massive hunger for petroleum products," said oil ministry Additional Secretay A K Sawhney. India's fuel consumption surged 10.9 percent to 183.5 million tonnes in 2015/16. level of 200 million tones would compare to almost 1 billion tonnes in U.S. fuel consumption and to around 575 million tonnes of demand in China.

Oil prices inched up on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations that OPEC and other producers will cut output as part of a deal to curb global oversupply. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $ 55.55 per barrel at 0035 GMT, up 10 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 9 cents at $ 52.46 a barrel.
Traders said that prices were buoyed by a weakening dollar, which makes fuel purchases cheaper for countries that use other currencies domestically, potentially spurring demand. After spending much of the second half of 2016 in an uptrend, the dollar has lost around 2.5 percent in its value against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY since its early-January peak. The greenback is in particular focus for international investors this week as Donald Trump is set to take over the U.S. presidency on Friday. "Oil pricing will be driven this week by the movement of the U.S.-dollar rather than crude itself, with President-elect Trump's inauguration ... being the main event. Oil also continued to receive support from an announced crude output cut from major producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia. OPEC has said it would cut its output by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.50 million bpd from Jan. 1, and Russia as well as other non-OPEC members are planning to cut about half as much. there is a broad expectation that OPEC will not fully implement its announced cuts, although compliance estimates of 50 to 80 percent are enough to keep crude prices supported in the mid-$ 50s per barrel, traders said.


Oil futures finished lower on Friday, logging their first weekly decline in five weeks amid doubts over the implementation of a planned deal by global crude producers to scale back output. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in February shed 64 cents, or about 1.2%, to end at $52.37 a barrel by close of trade Friday. For the week, New York-traded oil futures lost $1.62, or around 3%, after posting gains in each of the previous four weeks. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for March delivery slumped 56 cents, or 1%, to settle at $ 55.45 a barrel by close of trade. London-traded Brent futures logged a loss of $1.37, or approximately 2.4%, on the week. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day. The deal, if carried out as planned, should reduce global supply by about 2%. However, some traders remain skeptical that the planned cuts will be as substantial as the market currently expects. While major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, have so far showed signs that they are sticking to their pledge to cut back output, others, such as Libya have ramped up production. OPEC plans to release its monthly oil report on January 18 and the IEA’s monthly report is due the day after, but both would come just over two weeks after the output cuts officially began. As a result, markets will have to wait until the January report in mid-February for further evidence that OPEC members are adhering to planned output cuts. Meanwhile, market players shrugged off a report showing a downtick in U.S. drilling activity last week. According to oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week decreased by 7 to 522. That was the first decline in the oil-rig count in 10 weeks. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for February eased up 0.9 cents, or less than 0.1% to $1.611 a gallon. It ended down about 1.4% for the week. February heating oil shed 2.4 cents, or 1.4%, to finish at $ 1.651 a gallon. For the week, the fuel declined around 3%. Natural gas futures for February delivery settled 3.3 cents, or nearly 1%, higher at $ 3.419 per million British thermal units. Bucking the trend among other major energy futures, it scored a weekly gain of around 4.1%, following the release of bullish weekly storage data. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. The reports come out one day later than usual due to Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye out for monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International Energy Agency to gauge global supply and demand levels. Traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that they are complying with their agreement to reduce output this year. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Wednesday, January 18
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties will publish its monthly assessment of oil markets.

Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Thursday, January 19
The International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil supply and demand.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.
The U.S. EIA is also to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.

Friday, January 20
Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.
Oil was lower Friday as doubts emerged about the impact of agreed output cuts.Brent crude shed 52 cents, or 0.93%, to $ 55.49 at 07:45 ET. U.S. crude lost 49 cents, or 0.92%, to $ 52.52. Saudi Arabia has reportedly cut output to below 10 million barrels a day, more than agreed with other OPEC members in an accord reached at the end of November. Kuwait has also reportedly reduced production by more than agreed in the November OPEC accord to trim output by 1.2 million barrels a day. The focus is on compliance with non-OPEC producers who subsequently agreed an additional cut of 558,000 barrels a day.
U.S. oil turned sharply lower on Friday, amid doubts over the extent of the production cuts promised by major crude producers and as downbeat Chinese trade data weighed. U.S. crude futures for February delivery were down 0.96% at $52.48 a barrel, after hitting a three-day high of $ 53.50 on Thursday. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, the March Brent contract declined 0.89% to trade at $55.50 a barrel. Oil prices were boosted on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the kingdom reduced output to less than 10 million barrels a day, going beyond its obligations under a deal between OPEC and other producers. The comments came after Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam Al-Marzouq said his country cut output by 133,000 barrels a day to 2.7 million barrels. The optimism was short-lived however, as traders began to worry on Friday whether or not other oil producers will end up reducing their output levels as much as expected. January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day. If carried out as planned, the deal should reduce global supply by about 2%. Traders were also cautious after data on Friday showed that China’s trade surplus narrowed to $ 40.82 billion in December from $ 44.61 billion the previous month, confounding expectations for a surplus of $46.50 billion. The data fueled more concerns over the strength of the world’s second largest economy and therefore future oil demand. Meanwhile, a slight rebound in the U.S. dollar on Friday also dampened demand for crude oil. Oil prices typically weaken when the U.S. currency stregnthens as the dollar-priced commodity becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. But the greenback’s gains were capped since U.S. President-elect Donald Trump failed to offer details on his promises to boost fiscal spending and cut taxes at a highly-anticipated news conference on Wednesday. In addition, St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard said on Thursday that the election of Donald Trump has not yet switched the U.S. economy to a new "regime" that requires a quick rise in interest rates, which can remain "fairly low" at least through 2017. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.33% at 101.13, not far from the previous session’s one-month low of 100.70.

India's annual oil imports from Iran surged to a record high in 2016 as some refiners resumed purchases after the lifting of sanctions against Tehran, according to ship tracking data and a report compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts. The sharp increase propelled Iran into fourth place among India's suppliers in 2016, up from seventh position in 2015. It used to be India's second-biggest supplier before sanctions. For the year, the world's third biggest oil consumer bought about 473,000 barrels per day of oil from Iran to feed expanding refining capacity, up from 208,300 bpd in 2015, the data showed. In December, imports from Iran trebled from a year earlier to about 546,600 bpd. In 2015 refiners slowed purchases due to sanctions which choked payment routes, insurance and halved Iran's exports. Indian refiners Reliance Industries RELI.NS , Hindustan Petroleum HPCL.NS , Bharat Petroleum BPCL.NS and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd last year resumed imports from Tehran, attracted by the discount offered by Iran. "In most of 2016 there was a fight among Gulf producers to increase their market share and lifting of sanctions against Iran has intensified that fight, In April-December, the first nine months of this fiscal year, Iranian supplies to India averaged a record 530,300 bpd, up from about 400,000 bpd before sanctions tightened against Tehran. India's 2016 Iranian oil imports were the highest in at least six years, according to the Reuters data. Government data going back over a longer period shows the average was the highest since the 2001-02 fiscal year. Overall, India imported 4.3 million bpd oil in 2016, up 7.4 percent from the previous year. Rising imports from Iran and Iraq lifted the Middle Eastern share in India's crude diet to 64 percent in 2016, reversing a declines in recent years, partly due to rising prices for Atlantic Basin oil tied to Brent. The average premium for Brent jumped against Dubai crude DUB-EFS-1M to more than $ 3 a barrel in 2016 from around $ 1.80 in 2015. "In 2016 Iran ramped up its output to regain market share while Iraq segregated its production into Basra Light and Heavy to attract customers. Basra Heavy was sold at a discount, making it more attractive than rival grades," Iran's share of Indian oil imports surged to 11 percent in 2016 from 5 percent in 2015.
Saudi Arabia remained the top supplier to India last year followed by Iraq and Venezuela.
Imports from Latin America declined for a second year, with its share of imports shrinking to about 16 percent from 18 percent, while Africa's share fell to about 15 percent from a fifth. "Low oil prices brought down production in Latin America while Nigerian barrels were impacted by violence in the Niger Delta. Also falling U.S. oil output impacted trade flows, with some Latin American and African oil finding a place in the U.S.
Oil prices were steady on Friday, supported by reports on details of OPEC output cuts, although lingering doubts over producer compliance with supply reduction targets weighed on the market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were trading at $53.01 per barrel at 0052 GMT, unchanged from their last settlement. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were yet to trade. Traders said that prices received some support from statements from top crude exporter Saudi Arabia that its output had fallen below 10 million barrels per day, a level last seen in February 2015. would also mean that the kingdom has cut production more than the 486,000 bpd it agreed to late last year under a global deal to curb production and stem a fall in oil prices.
However, hard evidence of deep supply reductions to customers has yet to emerge two weeks into January, when the planned cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia are supposed to take effect. direction of prices will depend greatly on producer compliance with pledged supply cuts made in 2016," "The market has rallied since the end of 2016, more on faith than fact, following OPEC and selected non-OPEC countries announcing output cuts for the first 6 months of 2017. Any slip in the market's confidence that producers will follow through on their promises may lead to a sharp price correction. We expects WTI prices averaging $56 per barrel in 2017, up $7 from its previous forecast, and Brent to average $58 per barrel, up $8 a barrel from its earlier estimate.Dutch bank ABN Amro said in its January outlook that "conflicting signals" would likely keep oil prices trading in narrow ranges during the first half of the year. "For one thing, the recent agreement reached by the OPEC members as well as several non-OPEC oil producers to cut output has ... not everyone convinced of the resolve of these producers," it said.
"This means that the oil price could advance further if the targeted cuts are actually achieved," rising output from U.S. shale producers as well as OPEC members Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the cuts, might offset any supply reductions.

Oil was up over 1% Thursday on reports Saudi Arabia has cut output by more than agreed. Brent crude added 85 cents, or 1.54%, to $ 55.95 at 08:00 ET. U.S. crude gained 71 cents, or 1.36%, to $ 52.96. Bloomberg quoted Saudi Energy Minister Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih as saying the kingdom's output is now below 10 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia agreed to cut output by 486,000 barrels a day to 10.058 million. That was part of a six-month accord on output cuts of 1.8 million barrels a day by OPEC and non-OPEC producers from the start of this year. Al-Falih was also reportedly as saying Saudi Arabia would consider renewing that agreement beyond the six-month time frame. "We’re going the extra mile to lead our colleagues within and outside of OPEC," Al-Falih reportedly said. Kuwait also has reportedly reduced production by more than it agreed. Oil was underpinned by a slump in the dollar after a news conference by President-elect Donald Trump. A weaker dollar underpins demand for oil. Trump failed to elaborate on plans for a fiscal stimulus package and tax cuts.

Saudi Arabia has cut February term crude supplies to refiners in India and Southeast Asia, seeking to comply with an OPEC deal, but it has held most of its exports to the rest of Asia steady for a second month, industry sources said on Wednesday. State oil giant Saudi Aramco reduced February term supplies of mainly heavy crude to Indian refiners Reliance Industries RELI.NS and Hindustan Mittal Energy Ltd , as well as to Malaysia's Petronas , four sources familiar with the matter said. has also cut oil supplies to another southeast Asian buyer for a second month in February, one of the sources said. That means some major oil companies in Europe and the United States could see reductions of up to 18 percent in their term volumes for February, the source said. "Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are focusing their cuts on U.S. and European customers as they target excess inventories and protect market share in Asia. Saudi Aramco and the other companies could not be reached for comment. Details on the amounts of the supply reductions could not be confirmed. Saudi's February supply reductions to a handful of Asian refiners mark the start of cuts to a region left untouched in January at the onset of the OPEC output deal.
The producer maintained strong exports to Asia in January to protect its market share there and because it gets higher netbacks on sales to the East than it does for other regions.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017 to reduce a global supply glut and support prices. top exporter Saudi Arabia cut oil output in January by at least 486,000 bpd to 10.058 million bpd. Saudi Aramco kept February supplies to most North Asian refiners at full volumes for a second month, trade sources said. One North Asian refiner received extra crude above its contractual volume for a second month, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. "I think the Saudis won't touch volumes to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Southeast Asian demand is small when compared to North Asia," a Singapore-based crude analyst with a European oil company said.
Oil prices were steady early on Thursday after U.S. crude and refined product stocks sent mixed messages to the market, with ongoing uncertainty over OPEC compliance with planned output reductions also in focus. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $52.24 a barrel at 0040 GMT, virtually unchanged from their last settlement. Prices for Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were yet to trade. Traders said that a crude oil and refined product inventory report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration late on Wednesday had sent mixed messages to the market. While an unexpectedly strong rise in crude inventories by 4.1 million barrels to 483.11 million barrels implied an ongoing supply overhang, record U.S. refinery runs of 17.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 418,000 bpd on the week, indicated ongoing strong demand. data showed U.S. refineries increased the amount of crude they processed, pushing the utilisation rate to the highest since September. This saw inventories rise ... much more than the market expected," ANZ bank said. Outside the United States, emerging detail of Saudi supply cuts as parts of efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers like Russia to curb the global supply glut started to emerge.
Despite some February supply reductions to China, India and Malaysia, top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is likely to focus its cuts on Europe and the United States, shielding its biggest customers in Asia. in an indicator that there is still plentiful supply available despite the cuts, traders are ceasing the opportunity of higher crude prices following OPEC's decision to cut output to send record volumes of 22 million barrels of surplus European and Azerbaijani oil to Asia.

Oil prices recovered slightly on Wednesday from steep slides the previous day, but traders said markets remained under pressure from signs that planned OPEC output cuts were being poorly implemented and as supplies from elsewhere rose. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $50.98 a barrel at 0028 GMT, 16 cents above their last settlement, but 6.25 percent below the start of the year. Prices for Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were yet to trade. "Traders continued to fret about rising U.S. supply and compliance by OPEC to agreed-upon production cuts," The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday that increased drilling activity was set to boost crude oil production this year by 110,000 barrels per day to 9 million bpd compared with a year ago. Last month, it said production would fall by 80,000 bpd. For 2018, oil production is set to rise by 300,000 bpd to 9.3 million bpd, the EIA added. concern for traders is high U.S. crude stockpiles, with the EIA is scheduled to release its latest figures on Wednesday. "Traders appeared nervous ahead of this week's EIA report. With inventories at the highest seasonal level in three decades, another increase in this week's report could see prices come under further pressure," Outside the United States, there were lingering doubts over compliance with planned production cuts from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC's second biggest producer Iraq, plans to raise crude exports from its southern port of Basra to an all-time high in February, keeping shipments high even as OPEC production cuts take effect this month. The country's State Oil Marketing Company plans to export 3.641 million barrels per day of crude in February, according to trade sources and preliminary loading schedules, potentially beating a record of 3.51 million bpd set in December. cuts, however, appear to be coming. In Russia, which isn't an OPEC member but which also agreed to cut output, extreme cold as low as minus 60 degrees Celsius has already helped to knock out production by around 100,000 bpd in the first few days of January, and many oil engineers expect more reductions as production facilities struggle to cope with the extreme conditions.
Oil prices steadied on Tuesday after a sharp sell-off as a fall in the dollar triggered a bout of short-covering, but analysts said the market looked vulnerable to further declines. Rising oil prices through December encouraged investors to buy large volumes of crude futures contracts and many of these "long" positions are likely to be unwound unless the market stays strong, analysts and brokers say. "I see this as a dead-cat bounce," "Oil is unlikely to recover until the longs have been reduced."
"We are seeing some short-covering on the back of a weaker dollar," "We might see stronger prices today after yesterday's big fall, but the market should weaken in coming days. I believe we are going lower." Oil is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar tends to encourage buying by consumers holding other currencies. Brent crude LCOc1 was up 20 cents a barrel at $55.14 by 1435 GMT. U.S. light crude oil CLc1 was up 20 cents at $ 52.16. Both contracts fell more than $2 a barrel, or around 4 percent, on Monday on doubts that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other key oil producers would cut output as promised to try to reduce global oversupply. OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia appear to be reducing production but it is unclear whether other big producers such as Iraq will follow suit. said on Tuesday it would raise crude exports from its main Basra port to an all-time high in February. market rallied more on faith than fact, so there is plenty of room for disappointment if producers fail to deliver cuts," Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodities strategy at French bank BNP Paribas , told Reuters Global Oil Forum. Supplies are also increasing in North America. The average Canadian rig count for December 2016 was 209, up 36 from the 173 counted in November 2016, and up 49 from the 160 counted in December 2015, said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Services International in Dubai.
Oil markets opened on Tuesday torn between production cuts by major exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia and reports showing that supplies from other regions including North America, Iraq, and Iran could offset any restraint aimed at curbing a global glut. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures CLc1 were trading at $52.03 per barrel at 0028 GMT, up 7 cents from their last settlement but down 4 percent from this year's opening. Prices for Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were yet to trade. That came after prices fell around 4 percent the previous session on the back of concerns that rising output in Iraq, Iran, but also North America was undermining efforts led by Saudi Arabia to curb a global fuel supply glut that has weighed on markets for over two years. the second biggest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries , has given full supply allocations of Basra crude to three refiners in Asia and Europe for February, several sources with direct knowledge of the matter said on Monday. although traders said that oil markets had good support in the lower $50s per barrel due to announced cuts by other leading OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, there was a large degree of uncertainty beyond those price levels as other producers seemed to raise their output. "The average Canadian rig count for December 2016 was 209, up 36 from the 173 counted in November 2016, and up 49 from the 160 counted in December 2015," A 30 percent increase in Canadian rigs in a year... The bear in me is well and truly back. Drilling for new oil production in the United States is also increasing as U.S. energy companies last week added rigs for a tenth week in a row, extending the drilling recovery into an eighth month as crude prices remained at levels at which many U.S. drillers can operate profitably.

Oil prices tumbled by 3 percent on Monday on concern that record Iraqi crude exports and rising U.S. output would undermine OPEC's efforts to curb global oversupply. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were trading at $ 52.36 a barrel, down $1.63 at 11:47 a.m. ET. Brent futures LCOc1 were down $ 1.68 a barrel at $ 55.42. In Iraq, OPEC's second-biggest producer, oil exports from the southern Basra ports reached a record high of 3.51 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, the oil ministry said. oil ministry underscored that the high levels from the south would not affect the country's decision to lower production in January to comply with the OPEC agreement. But some remained concerned over the feasibility of the cuts - which would have to come from the north. "We have compliance with the Gulf countries, but the rest of the slate is looking a bit shaky," said Robert Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. "With the big numbers coming out of the southern port of Basra for December ... it's implying that Iraq may be the first big crack in the wall of the OPEC agreement," Sources also told Reuters that Iraq's State Oil Marketing Company had given three buyers in Asia and Europe full supply allocations for February. lower optimism comes even though Russia, one of the world's largest crude producers, is apparently sticking with the agreement to cut. Russian energy market sources told Reuters the country's output had fallen by 100,000 bpd in the first week of the month. oil minister said on Monday he expected a "big commitment" by OPEC and non-OPEC producers to the deal to cut output, which was reached last year. committee will meet in Vienna on Jan. 21-22 to monitor compliance and agree on a "final monitoring mechanism." week, U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a 10th week in a row, for a total of 529, Baker Hughes data showed. Barclays analysts said they expected the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by year end. add that the recent uptick in hedging activity to protect future output for 2018 and beyond could put more pressure into the market. "We see the optimism surrounding OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts being counterbalanced by fears of higher U.S. crude production as the higher rig count of last Friday still weighs.

BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :
BASE METAL GUIDE -
Zinc
Zinc trading range for the day is 181.1-189.5.
Zinc settled with gain's in volatile session as traders are now making long positions as fundamentals look strong.
Zinc’s fundamentals are strong and, while suspended capacity remains idle, the deficit is likely to draw down stocks of concentrates and refined metal.
Processing fees for China's zinc smelters reached record lows last month as the supply from mines continued to dwindle.
Zinc Market Under Short Covering; Support Seen At 183.7



COPPER
Copper trading range for the day is 388.1-409.5.
Copper rallied to settle above 400 level market hit its highest since December 12 also helped by supply concerns.
Copper remains up this year after Chinese and global economic data fuelled expectations for firm demand in 2017.
Copper stocks fell a net 2,525 tonnes at 285,700 tonnes, while cancelled warrants were down 4,800 tonnes at 80,200 tonnes.

ALUMINIUM
Aluminium trading range for the day is 117.9-123.7.
Aluminium gained tracking firmness from LME Aluminium seen after China's NDRC said it had approved 23 fixed-asset investment projects.
Support also seen as dollar weakened on US president-elect Donald Trump's failure to give clear policy details
Manufacturing indicators still look good, which could suggest that the global economy has got off to a good start in 2017

BASE METAL

LEAD
Lead fell 0.64 per cent to Rs 147.90 per kg in futures trade on Wednesday after participants reduced exposure amid a weak trend at the domestic spot markets due to sluggish demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in January was trading 95 paise, or 0.64 per cent, down at Rs 147.90 per kg in a business turnover of 920 lots. Also, metal for delivery in February shed 65 paise, or 0.44 per cent to Rs 148.65 per kg in five lots. Analysts said weakness in metal at the domestic spot market owing to muted from battery-makers kept pressure on metal prices.

COPPER
Copper prices rose by 0.12 per cent to Rs 380.90 per kg in futures trading on Friday as traders engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in February went up by 45 paise, or 0.12 per cent, to Rs 380.90 per kg in business turnover of 961 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month April was trading higher by 40 paise, or 0.10 per cent, to Rs 384.25 per kg in 5 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants on the back of rising demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market, mainly kept copper prices higher at futures trade.

NICKEL
Falling for the second day, nickel prices shed 0.24 per cent to Rs 699.60 per kg in futures market as participants engaged in reducing their positions amid subdued demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in February drifted lower by Rs 1.70, or 0.24 per cent to Rs 699.60 per kg in a business turnover of 3 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in January traded lower by Rs 1.10, or 0.16 per cent to Rs 695 per kg in 701 lots. Analysts said, offloading of positions by traders following easing demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, mainly kept nickel prices lower at futures trade.

ZINC
Zinc prices drifted lower by 0.37 per cent to Rs 176.35 per kg in futures trade as traders engaged in trimming their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in January declined by 65 paise, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 176.35 per kg in a business turnover of 477 lots. In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in February shed 40 paise, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 176.85 per kg in 2 lots. Market analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot market, kept zinc prices down at futures trade.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
? SOYBEAN
Soybean futures closed little higher on Thursday due to bargain buying from lower levels. The supplies in the physical market are good but the demand is steady from the bulk buyers and oil millers at lower levels. Moreover, higher production estimates by SOPA is keeping pressure on prices this season.
U.S. soybean prices closed higher supported by the U.S. government reducing its estimate for yields and stockpiles. The USDA trimmed its estimate of the U.S. 2016 soybean yield to 52.1 bushels per acre, still an all-time high, but down from its previous figure of 52.5 and below an average of trade estimates for 52.7. The agency also lowered its forecast of U.S. 2016/17 soybean ending stocks to 420 million bushels, from 480 million last month.

? REFINE SOY OIL
Refined soy oil futures closed higher on Thursday tracking good surge in physical demand. Prices try to consolidate on good supplies and steady physical demand in the physical market. The tariff value of crude soyoil was reduced by $20 per tonnes to $892 for the first fortnight of January, which is the first
reduction in three months by the government. India import of soybean oil has declined to 1,64,286 tonnes in Nov from 2,56,836 tonnes in the year-ago period as supplies of soybean is good at lower prices.
Soybean futures closed little higher on Thursday due to bargain buying from lower levels. The supplies in the physical market are good but the demand is steady from the bulk buyers and oil millers at lower levels. Moreover, higher production estimates by SOPA is keeping pressure on prices this season.
U.S. soybean prices closed higher supported by the U.S. government reducing its estimate for yields and stockpiles. The USDA trimmed its estimate of the U.S. 2016 soybean yield to 52.1 bushels per acre, still an all-time high, but down from its previous figure of 52.5 and below an average of trade estimates for 52.7. The agency also lowered its forecast of U.S. 2016/17 soybean ending stocks to 420 million bushels, from 480 million last month.

? CRUDE PALM OIL
CPO Futures closed lower on Thursday tracking international prices and anticipation of increase in physical demand for the oil after lower demand during last two months due to affect on demonetization. Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday evening, weighed down by a stronger ringgit and profit booking by market participants from the higher levels. A stronger ringgit usually
makes palm oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies Palm oil shipments from Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, rose 8-10% in the first ten days of the month versus the corresponding period in December.

? SUGAR
Sugar Futures closed higher on Thursday due to reports that the sugar output may be lower than expected in the country. However, government is still hoping that the sugar stock will be sufficient for domestic consumption and there is no immediate plan to cut import duty. As per ISMA, with higher cane price announced by states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, low sugar recovery being
achieved in the Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and other states, and lower capacity utilization in drought-affected areas of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana, the all-India average cost of production of sugar during the current 2016-17 SS, will roughly be higher at around Rs 35 to 36 per kilo. In the physical market, sugar price hit the highest in seven years following sudden pick up demand from bulk consumers. Raw sugar futures on ICE closed higher on production deficit in
India and Thailand. Moreover, as per CFTC data, speculators upped their bullish stance in raw sugar for the first time in four weeks in the week to Jan. 3.

? COTTON / KAPAS
Cotton complex traded on positive note on Thursday due to reports good demand from the industrial buyers while firm international market also supporting the domestic sentiments. Moreover, the supplies have not peaked in the season which is a major concern. According to CCI, about 103 lakh bales have been arrived in the physical markets. The highest producing states Gujarat and Maharashtra together see arrivals of more than 52 lakh bales. ICE cotton futures slid over 1% to hit a one-week low on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its outlook for production and inventories by the end of the 2016-17 crop year. As per USDA Jan report, Global and U.S. inventories were seen higher than had been forecast in December, while consumption was reduced for India, Mexico and Turkey, mostly offset by an increase for China.

Spices
? JEERA
Jeera futures for Mar’17 delivery surge on Thursday tracking good demand in the physical market coupled with tight supplies with the stockists. Export enquiries from China are keeping the prices higher. Jeera acreage this season is also down in Gujarat compared to last year. As on 09-Jan-17, Gujarat farmers have planted jeera in 2,78,700 hectares, down by 4600 hectares compared to last year acreage of 2,83,300 hectares till same period. On the export front, India's jeera exports rise about 30% to 88,000 tonnes in Apr-Dec, because of robust demand from overseas market and negligible stocks in other exporting nations. Turmeric futures recover further on Thursday on anticipation of up country demand in coming weeks. The new season turmeric crop has now entered into the markets in South India which is putting pressure on prices in recent times. The new crop is of medium quality which is fetching lower prices. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-September period, up by 27% to 58,233 tonnes compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices.


? WHEAT
Extending its rising streak for a second day, wheat prices were higher by another 1.84 per cent to Rs 1,936 per quintal in futures trade as speculators engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on strong demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in January month jumped up by Rs 35, or 1.84 per cent to Rs 1,936 per quintal with an open interest of 2,700 lots. In a similar fashion, the wheat for delivery in February was trading higher by Rs 10, or 0.53 per cent to Rs 1,888 per quintal in 3,400 lots. Analysts said, widening of positions by traders following strong demand from flour mills in the spot market amid pause in supply, mainly kept wheat prices higher at futures trade.

? SUGAR
Sugar prices drifted lower by 0.59 per cent to Rs 3,850 per quintal in futures trade as speculators trimmed their positions amid adequate stocks position on increased supplies at spot market against lower demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, sugar for delivery in March month fell by Rs 23, or 0.59 per cent to Rs 3,850 per quintal with an open interest of 6,410 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stocks position on increased supplies from mills in the physical market against lower demand from bulk consumers, mainly influenced sugar prices at futures trade.

? COTTONSEED OILCAKE
Buoyed by strong demand at the physical markets, cottonseed oilcake prices spurted by another Rs 41 to Rs 2,153 per quintal in futures trade as participants indulged in widening their positions. Marketmen said strengthening of positions by participants, driven by a firm trend at the spot markets on strong demand against thin supplies, led to rise in cottonseed oilcake futures prices. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, cottonseed oilcake for delivery this month shot up by Rs 41 or 1.94 per cent to Rs 2,153 per quintal, with an open interest of 25,020 lots. In a similar manner, the most-active delivery in February month delivery flared up by Rs 38 or 1.77 per cent to Rs 2,182 per quintal, clocking an open interest of 83,990 lots.

? MUSTARDSEED
Prices tumbled by Rs 54 to Rs 4,205 per quintal in futures trading as participants indulged in offloading their positions at prevailing levels to book profits. Marketmen said besides weakness in spot markets following increased arrivals, emergence of profit-booking at higher levels mainly led to decline in mustardseed prices in futures trade. Besides, estimates of good crops in Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujrat also weighed on prices, they added. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, , mustardseed for delivery in January month was trading lower by Rs 54 or 1.27 per cent to Rs 4,205 per quintal, having an open interest of 11,950 lots. Similarly, mustardseed for delivery in February month slipped by Rs 20 or 0.52 per cent to Rs 3,852 per quintal, depicting an open interest of 21,110 lots.

? JEERA
The futures price of jeera has been rising steadily over the past few weeks despite improved sowing prospects because of robust export demand and a thin inventory. January futures prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange jumped 9% over . 185 per kg.the last two weeks to ` The current price level is over 30% higher from a year ago. Normally , prices drop when there is increased sowing. “But this s time, the stock is very low and demand from China is quite strong. This has lifted prices,“ said Dipak Parikh, partner of Kanu Krishna Corporation, a ma jor exporter. Parikh said the sowing area in the chief producing region, Gujarat, has gone up by 20%. Traders reckon that the new stock that will be harvested around March will be up at least 10%. “Unlike last year, the carry forward stock will be quite low, which may limit the fall in prices,“ Parikh said. He expects prices to remain in the . 160-170 per kg following harvest. As per Spices Board data, jeera exports rose 49% to 68,600 tonnes for six months to Sept 2016 from a year ago, with China accounting for a large chunk of shipments.

? COTTON
Cotton prices in India, the world's second-largest producer, have firmed up by 10% in the last fortnight on falling supplies in the spot markets and exports by mills. Prices are expected to remain bullish with farmers holding the crop due to lack of cash flow in the market, said trader and ginners. On Saturday, Shankar 6 cotton prices in the Rajkot mandi was trading at Rs 40,000-41,000 per .candy of 356 kg each from Rs 37,500 .38,000 per candy a fortnight ago. “Everyone is trying to meet their export shipment deadlines and domestic demand and prices remain firm. I expect bullish sentiments to prevail,” said Dhiren Sheth, director, CA Galiakotwala, a leading cotton exporting company.

? CARDAMOM
Cardamom prices drifted lower by 1.39 per cent to Rs 1,435.10 per kg in futures market as traders trimmed their holdings amid sluggish demand at the spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position following increased arrivals from producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery this month declined by Rs 20.20, or 1.39 per cent, to Rs 1,435.10 per kg, in a business turnover of just two lots. The spice for delivery in February was trading down by Rs 1.60, or 0.10 per cent, to Rs 1,500 per kg, with a trading volume of 92 lots. Traders said, offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts, mainly led to the decline in cardamom prices at futures trade.
CPO Futures closed lower on Thursday tracking international prices and anticipation of increase in physical demand for the oil after lower demand during last two months due to affect on demonetization. Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday evening, weighed down by a stronger ringgit and profit booking by market participants from the higher levels. A stronger ringgit usually
makes palm oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies Palm oil shipments from Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, rose 8-10% in the first ten days of the month versus the corresponding period in December.

? SUGAR
Sugar Futures closed higher on Thursday due to reports that the sugar output may be lower than expected in the country. However, government is still hoping that the sugar stock will be sufficient for domestic consumption and there is no immediate plan to cut import duty. As per ISMA, with higher cane price announced by states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, low sugar recovery being
achieved in the Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and other states, and lower capacity utilization in drought-affected areas of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana, the all-India average cost of production of sugar during the current 2016-17 SS, will roughly be higher at around Rs 35 to 36 per kilo. In the physical market, sugar price hit the highest in seven years following sudden pick up demand from bulk consumers. Raw sugar futures on ICE closed higher on production deficit in
India and Thailand. Moreover, as per CFTC data, speculators upped their bullish stance in raw sugar for the first time in four weeks in the week to Jan. 3.

? COTTON / KAPAS
Cotton complex traded on positive note on Thursday due to reports good demand from the industrial buyers while firm international market also supporting the domestic sentiments. Moreover, the supplies have not peaked in the season which is a major concern. According to CCI, about 103 lakh bales have been arrived in the physical markets. The highest producing states Gujarat and Maharashtra together see arrivals of more than 52 lakh bales. ICE cotton futures slid over 1% to hit a one-week low on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its outlook for production and inventories by the end of the 2016-17 crop year. As per USDA Jan report, Global and U.S. inventories were seen higher than had been forecast in December, while consumption was reduced for India, Mexico and Turkey, mostly offset by an increase for China.

? JEERA
Jeera futures for Mar’17 delivery surge on Thursday tracking good demand in the physical market coupled with tight supplies with the stockists. Export enquiries from China are keeping the prices higher. Jeera acreage this season is also down in Gujarat compared to last year. As on 09-Jan-17, Gujarat farmers have planted jeera in 2,78,700 hectares, down by 4600 hectares compared to last year acreage of 2,83,300 hectares till same period. On the export front, India's jeera exports rise about 30% to 88,000 tonnes in Apr-Dec, because of robust demand from overseas market and negligible stocks in other exporting nations. Turmeric futures recover further on Thursday on anticipation of up country demand in coming weeks. The new season turmeric crop has now entered into the markets in South India which is putting pressure on prices in recent times. The new crop is of medium quality which is fetching lower prices. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-September period, up by 27% to 58,233 tonnes compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices.

? WHEAT
Extending its rising streak for a second day, wheat prices were higher by another 1.84 per cent to Rs 1,936 per quintal in futures trade as speculators engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on strong demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in January month jumped up by Rs 35, or 1.84 per cent to Rs 1,936 per quintal with an open interest of 2,700 lots. In a similar fashion, the wheat for delivery in February was trading higher by Rs 10, or 0.53 per cent to Rs 1,888 per quintal in 3,400 lots. Analysts said, widening of positions by traders following strong demand from flour mills in the spot market amid pause in supply, mainly kept wheat prices higher at futures trade.

? SUGAR
Sugar prices drifted lower by 0.59 per cent to Rs 3,850 per quintal in futures trade as speculators trimmed their positions amid adequate stocks position on increased supplies at spot market against lower demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, sugar for delivery in March month fell by Rs 23, or 0.59 per cent to Rs 3,850 per quintal with an open interest of 6,410 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stocks position on increased supplies from mills in the physical market against lower demand from bulk consumers, mainly influenced sugar prices at futures trade.

? COTTONSEED OILCAKE
Buoyed by strong demand at the physical markets, cottonseed oilcake prices spurted by another Rs 41 to Rs 2,153 per quintal in futures trade as participants indulged in widening their positions. Marketmen said strengthening of positions by participants, driven by a firm trend at the spot markets on strong demand against thin supplies, led to rise in cottonseed oilcake futures prices. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, cottonseed oilcake for delivery this month shot up by Rs 41 or 1.94 per cent to Rs 2,153 per quintal, with an open interest of 25,020 lots. In a similar manner, the most-active delivery in February month delivery flared up by Rs 38 or 1.77 per cent to Rs 2,182 per quintal, clocking an open interest of 83,990 lots.

? MUSTARDSEED
Prices tumbled by Rs 54 to Rs 4,205 per quintal in futures trading as participants indulged in offloading their positions at prevailing levels to book profits. Marketmen said besides weakness in spot markets following increased arrivals, emergence of profit-booking at higher levels mainly led to decline in mustardseed prices in futures trade. Besides, estimates of good crops in Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujrat also weighed on prices, they added. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, , mustardseed for delivery in January month was trading lower by Rs 54 or 1.27 per cent to Rs 4,205 per quintal, having an open interest of 11,950 lots. Similarly, mustardseed for delivery in February month slipped by Rs 20 or 0.52 per cent to Rs 3,852 per quintal, depicting an open interest of 21,110 lots.

? JEERA
The futures price of jeera has been rising steadily over the past few weeks despite improved sowing prospects because of robust export demand and a thin inventory. January futures prices on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange jumped 9% over . 185 per kg.the last two weeks to ` The current price level is over 30% higher from a year ago. Normally , prices drop when there is increased sowing. “But this s time, the stock is very low and demand from China is quite strong. This has lifted prices,“ said Dipak Parikh, partner of Kanu Krishna Corporation, a ma jor exporter. Parikh said the sowing area in the chief producing region, Gujarat, has gone up by 20%. Traders reckon that the new stock that will be harvested around March will be up at least 10%. “Unlike last year, the carry forward stock will be quite low, which may limit the fall in prices,“ Parikh said. He expects prices to remain in the . 160-170 per kg following harvest. As per Spices Board data, jeera exports rose 49% to 68,600 tonnes for six months to Sept 2016 from a year ago, with China accounting for a large chunk of shipments.

? COTTON
Cotton prices in India, the world's second-largest producer, have firmed up by 10% in the last fortnight on falling supplies in the spot markets and exports by mills. Prices are expected to remain bullish with farmers holding the crop due to lack of cash flow in the market, said trader and ginners. On Saturday, Shankar 6 cotton prices in the Rajkot mandi was trading at Rs 40,000-41,000 per .candy of 356 kg each from Rs 37,500 .38,000 per candy a fortnight ago. “Everyone is trying to meet their export shipment deadlines and domestic demand and prices remain firm. I expect bullish sentiments to prevail,” said Dhiren Sheth, director, CA Galiakotwala, a leading cotton exporting company.

? CARDAMOM
Cardamom prices drifted lower by 1.39 per cent to Rs 1,435.10 per kg in futures market as traders trimmed their holdings amid sluggish demand at the spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position following increased arrivals from producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery this month declined by Rs 20.20, or 1.39 per cent, to Rs 1,435.10 per kg, in a business turnover of just two lots. The spice for delivery in February was trading down by Rs 1.60, or 0.10 per cent, to Rs 1,500 per kg, with a trading volume of 92 lots. Traders said, offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts, mainly led to the decline in cardamom prices at futures trade.

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