Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 26 December 2016

Last Week Equity benchmark Nifty traded in a range of 141 points between 8264 and 8123. As per expected line the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and Global Markets welcomed the move

NIFTY FIFTY : - Last Week Equity benchmark Nifty traded in a range of 141 points between 8264 and 8123. As per expected line the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and Global Markets welcomed the move. The Equity benchmark Nifty opened in a negative note on Monday down by 13 points or 0.16 percent at 8126. The holiday season for the New Year and Christmas has already set in which might result in a more or less muted market movements. However, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a good reflection of the Emerging markets pack, is trading below its previous week's low of 855. This is a sign of prevailing weakness in the markets. Nifty too is expected to trade slightly negative in the days to come in a range of 7876 on the downside and 8294 on the upside. FII has remained net sellers in the cash market, they have sold 5665 crores in the month of December. This is a significant figure compared to the current low volume in the present scenario. Thus we might see further selling in Nifty in coming trading sessions. Nifty would see strong Resistance at 8150 levels some bounce back may seen near 7950-7900 levels. But traders should go short at every positive rally until Nifty closes above 8150 Levels. Technically, Nifty is still in Negative zone. Market needs to close above 8150-8170 to enter into Positive zone. Traders can initiate long positions only if Nifty closes above 8170 levels. Budget hopes are still there and a pre-budget rally can be seen in days to come. For now, Market would see positive rally if Nifty breaches 8165 levels and would see sharp downfall if it closes below 7950 levels. The Crucial levels for Nifty is 7950-7900 is down side and 8100-8150 is Up side.
BANK NIFTY : - The Banking Index Bank Nifty opened in a Negative note on Monday down by 54 points or 0.29 per cent at 18258. Banking Shares may be under pressure for not only demonetization related woes and expected dip in Net Interest Margin; but also from the proposed change in accounting norms (Ind-AS-109) to be effective from April’18, which may hurt its earnings significantly for the short term due to computation of “expected credit loses. The Strong support for Bank Nifty is at 17860-17580 and the resistance to the up move is at 18290-18588 levels. The Bank Nifty has to sustain above 18000 area for any positive move; otherwise it may further fall towards 17800-17750 & 17725-17650 zone for the Upcoming week. The Significance Levels for Bank Nifty is 17950-18116 is Upside and 17784-17618 is Down side.


Near term growth risks for India on downside: Goldman Sachs - Indian economy has outperformed in recent years but the near term growth risks for the country is on the downside relatively to a lot of consensus estimates, according to Goldman Sachs. Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of Global Economics and Markets Research at Goldman Sachs said India as an economy has outperformed in recent years and it has been growing quite strongly. "At the moment, there is a quite a slowdown in India basically because of the currency reform that was introduced by the Modi government several weeks ago," Hatzius said. He further noted that "right now the economy is slowing quite a bit. We think in the near term risks are definitely on the downside relatively to a lot of the consensus estimates out there." Goldman Sachs expects global growth in 2017 to be around 3.5 per cent led by the US. "Our expectations for economic policy under the Trump administration and under unified Republican control are that there will be tax reform coupled with some fiscal easing and also some increase in infrastructure spending. And we do expect that to provide a positive impulse to economic growth," he said.

Mauritius top source of FDI in India - Mauritius accounted for 20.8 per cent of FDI in India followed by the US, the UK, Singapore and Japan up till March 2016, the Reserve Bank said while releasing the Census on Foreign Liabilities and Assets of Indian Direct Investment Companies for 2015-16. The destination for Overseas Direct Investment of Indian companies was largely Singapore, Mauritius, the Netherlands and the US. "Equity participation had a much larger share (93.4 per cent) than debt in total inward FDI, which stood at Rs 20,140 billion at market value in March 2016 (Rs 19,813.4 billion a year ago). "Total ODI was placed at Rs 5,79,020 crore at market value (Rs 5,63,700 crore a year ago). Under ODI too, equity participation had a large share (80.5 per cent)" the data said. The ratio of outward to inward direct investment, at market value, increased marginally from 28.5 per cent to 28.7 per cent over this period. Both manufacturing and services sectors attract foreign equity participation. Total FDI stock at market value in the manufacturing and services sectors stood at Rs 10,00,630 crore in March 2016 and Rs 8,59,080 crore, respectively.

India's crackdown on cash imperils pivotal tax reform GST - Prime Minister Narendra Modi's crackdown on the cash economy has shattered the consensus needed for a new national sales tax, GST, plunging his boldest reform into limbo and threatening to entrench an economic slowdown. Modi's government already had its work cut out to finalise a deal with 29 states to launch a Goods and Services Tax on April 1 that would transform Asia's third largest economy into a single market for the first time. But his decision to scrap 86 per cent of the cash in circulation, in a bid to purge the economy of illicit "black money", has caused huge disruption. A slump in business activity stemming from the cash crunch has caused the revenue of state governments, which collect value-added tax on goods and other duties, to slump by 25-40 per cent. The states won't risk another setback by rushing the sales tax into force. "The investment and economic environment in the country is in bad shape," said West Bengal Finance Minister Amit Mitra, who earlier head a panel tasked with building a consensus on the GST. "How is the country going to absorb the dual shock of GST and demonetisation?." The GST is India's biggest tax overhaul since independence in 1947. It would replace a plethora of federal and state levies with one tax, easing compliance, broadening the revenue base and boosting productivity.

India remains fastest-growing large economy, beating China: EIU - The Economist Intelligence Unit , the research and analysis division of The Economist Group in its global economic outlook in December said that India continues to be the fastest-growing large economy beating China. Tweeting the highlights of the session, Director of Global Forecasting at the EIU Joseph Lake said, "India remains fastest-growing large economy, beating China. Iran looks good. Strong showing from Africa: Tanzania, Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda." The group however slashed India's economic growth forecast from 7.3 percent to 6.5 percent in 2016-17 because of cash shortage from "botched implementation of demonetisation". It however, said that India remains fastest growing large economy in world as growth will accelerate after liquidity shortage eases and public investment ramps up. The group also warned that the health of the Chinese economy remains the biggest risk to the global economy, saying, "That growth in China will lurch down from 6.2 percent in 2017 to 4.2 percent in 2018." "This kind of shift is unprecedented in modern China and will come at a time when the global economy is uniquely unprepared to react. Consequently, 2018 will be a year of anxiety around the world, characterised by volatility in real economies and financial markets," said the group.

How Modi government lobbied Moody's for a ratings upgrade, but failed - India criticised Moody's ratings methods and pushed aggressively for an upgrade, documents reviewed by Reuters show, but the US-based agency declined to budge citing concerns over the country's debt levels and fragile banks. Winning a better credit rating on India's sovereign debt would have been a much-needed endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic stewardship, helping to attract foreign investment and accelerate growth. Since storming to power in 2014, Modi has unveiled measures to boost investment, cool inflation and narrow the fiscal and current account deficits, but his policies have not been rewarded with a ratings upgrade from any of the "big three" global ratings agencies, who say more is needed. Previously unpublished correspondence between India's finance ministry and Moody's shows New Delhi failed to assuage the ratings agency's concerns about the cost of its debt burden and a banking sector weighed down by $ 136 billion in bad loans.

Dent on growth will be bigger than RBI's estimates: Nomura - Damage to India's economic growth is likely to be bigger than the RBI's estimates, as there could be a sharper slowdown in the near-term as cash shortage is likely to extend into the first quarter of next year, says a Nomura report. "We concur with the RBI's view that the impact of demonetisation is likely to be transitory. However, with the cash shortage spilling over into Q1 2017, our leading indicators are pointing to a sharper slowdown in near-term growth," " the Japanese financial services major said in a research note. Nomura further said, "As such, we expect the growth damage to be larger than the RBI's estimates". The report also said November's CPI readings suggest that demonetisation contributed 25-30 bps to the fall in headline CPI inflation via lower perishable item prices, slightly more than the RBI's estimate of 10-15 bps, and most core inflation measures eased by 20 bps in November.

EPFO decided to lower the interest on EPF deposits for the current fiscal to 8.65%, from 8.8% provided in 2015-16, for its over 40 million subscribers.

The index of mineral production of the mining and quarrying sector for October declined by 1.1% while the total value of the mineral output during the month was estimated at Rs. 193.59 billion.

Rights issuances have seen an 85% drop this year due to volatility in the market and uncertain economic environment.

Gold imports witnessed a fall of 30.5% to USD 15.74 billion in April-November of the current financial year, which is expected to keep a lid on the current account deficit.

The Government will start easing restrictions on cash withdrawals once 80 per cent of the new currency introduced following demonetisation is re-channelised through bank deposits. Restrictions on cash withdrawals will be first eased in the case of cooperative banks and then for all the scheduled commercial banks.

The Supreme Court ordered a ban on all liquor shops on national as well as state highways across the country and made it clear that licences of existing shops will not be renewed after March 31 next year.

Expanding for the third straight month, exports rose 2.29% to US$20 billion in November. Imports too increased by 10.44% to US$33 billion, leaving a trade deficit of US$13 billion in November.

The Income-Tax department will soon begin sharing personal data—like PAN, residential address and mobile number—of a taxpayer earning over Rs. 1 million Per Annum with the Oil Ministry as part of government’s initiative to effectively block subsidised cooking gas to higher income groups.

Mauritius accounted for 20.8% of foreign direct investment in India followed by the US, the UK, Singapore and Japan till March 2016, the Reserve Bank of India said while releasing the Census on Foreign Liabilities and Assets of Indian Direct Investment Companies for 2015-16.

Japan has dragged India to the World Trade Organisation's dispute settlement body for imposing safeguard measures on steel products and minimum import price on iron and steel products.

Investments in domestic capital markets through participatory notes plunged to its lowest level in nearly three years to Rs 1.79 trn in end-November.

According to the latest clarification issued by the tax authority, indirect taxes would be applicable on internal transfers India-dedicated funds-investment vehicles that deployed more than half of their total investments in domestic securities.

Lupin Limited announced the launch of a generic version of its voriconazole tablets and oral suspension used for the treatment of fungal infections in children.

Cipla Limited has received final approval from the US health regulator for lipid regulating Fenofibrate tablets.

Steel Authority of India Limited is in talks with Japan's Nippon Steel & Sumitomo MetalCorp and Kobe Steel Ltd for potential technical agreements to help the firm expand its global footprint.

The board of directors of Pennar Industries Limited is evaluating the merger of its subsidiary Pennar Enviro Ltd into Pennar Industries.

Stung by fluctuation in price of coking coal, Steel Authority of India Limited is desperately seeking an alternative solution to reduce its dependence on imports.

The government over the next few days will examine the status of 72 coal blocks allocated either through allotment or auction route to companies like NTPC Limited, JSW Steel, Hindalco and SAIL.

Jindal Steel and Power Limited has lined up Rs80bn additional investment for its Odisha operations. The money will be spent on the addition of a blast furnace to take its Angul steel plant capacity to 6mt, setting up of a cement plant, laying of the slurry pipeline to carry iron ore from mines to the steel plant and setting up of a pellet plant.

Divi's Laboratories Limited has chalked out alternate plans to keep the capacity expansion going after the Rs5bn greenfield project near Kakinada ran into rough weather, first by the local protests and later by an interim order issued by Hyderabad high court pertaining to the project land.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Limited is developing specialty respiratory and dermatology products as a part of its long-term growth strategy.

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar Ltd plans to sell its co-generation power business to its group company Lalitpur Power Generation Company Ltd for about Rs. 18 billion.

Welspun Enterprises Limited said its board of directors will meet later this week to consider buyback of equity shares.

Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Limited said one of its subsidiaries has voluntarily requested the US health regulator to withdraw approval for 28 abbreviated new drug applications belonging to Ranbaxy Laboratories.

Future Enterprises Limited will be selling 16% stake in Future Lifestyle for Rs3.80bn, a notice to the stock exchanges. FEL owns the physical assets or the store formats and infrastructure assets in the stores of Future Retail and Bharti retail.

8K Miles Software Services Limited has announced the acquisition of Cornerstone Advisors Group LLC for USD 10.25 million. The acquisition, through its US-subsidiary, is subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to conclude in the quarter ending March 31, 2017.

Tridevi Capital Partners to invest USD 20 million in Prabha Energy Private Limited, a subsidiary of Deep Industries Limited. The subsidiary valuation is estimated to be USD 50 million.

Jubilant Life Sciences Limited, a global leader in the pyridine, picolines and nutrition industry, announced a price increase of up to 15% on select products.

Cognizant Technology Solutions has acquired the technology and business process services unit of Frontica Business Solutions AS, helping it gain access to capabilities in the oil and gas sector.

The US Food and Drug Administration has issued Form 483 observations against Unit I of Aurobindo Pharma Limited in Hyderabad.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has tied up with Hughes Communications India to revamp and upgrade its existing satellite network across India.

Vedanta Limited Resources has been ordered by London High Court to pay over USD 100 million to a Zambian investment company related to a 2013 copper price agreement.

Bharti Airtel Limited said its subsidiary Network i2i has entered into a definitive agreement with Egyptian firm Orascom to acquire the latter’s entire equity stake in Middle East North Africa Submarine Cable Systems for an undisclosed amount.

Reliance Communications signed binding agreements with Brookfield Infrastructure and institutional partners to sell its tower business for an upfront cash payment of Rs. 110 billion.

The Cabinet approved the sale of surplus and vacant land of Hindustan Antibiotics Limited in Pimpri, Pune to meet liabilities worth Rs. 8.21 billion.

Titan Company Limited inaugurated its revamped store in the upmarket Jubilee Hills area of the city, bringing together their retail chains -- World of Titan and Helios -- under one roof.

Jubilant Cadista Pharmaceuticals Inc, part of the Jubilant Group, is recalling over 1,500 bottles of glucocorticoid Methylprednisolone tablets in the US market due to incorrect labelling.

RBL Bank Limited has reduced the marginal cost of funds based lending rates by 0.30-0.45% across different tenures.

After Jet Airways, IndiGo has too launched discount sale on domestic routes.

Quess Corp Limited and TeamLease Services are among the few that are benefiting from demonetisation as the process has led to a spike in the demand for temporary staff, particularly from banks.

Texmaco Rail & Engineering Limited and Kalindee Rail Nirman have received Delhi High Court’s approval to merge the latter with former, the companies notified the bourses.

Nearly 90% of the shareholders present at theThe Indian Hotels Company Limited EGM voted in favour of removing Nusli Wadia as the independent director of the company. Only 9.20% voters backed Wadia.

Sun Pharma is acquiring Odomzo, from Novartis for an upfront payment of USD175mn and additional milestone payments.

Jet Airways Limited plans to raise USD 100 million, or almost Rs. 6.80 billion, in US dollar-denominated debt by March 2017 to refinance rupee-based loans, so that it can almost halve its borrowing rate.

Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Limited Advanced Research Company said the US health regulator has not approved its new drug application for Xelpros, a preservative-free eye drop.

Moody's Investors Service said that Reliance Communications' ratings will "remain on review for downgrade" despite the company signing an agreement with Canada-based Brookfield Infrastructure to sell its tower assets.

Power Grid Corporation of India, should sell stakes in its projects to unlock capital for future expansion.

Engineers India Limited will set up a 1mtpa petrochemical complex near the Kakinada port in Andhra Pradesh.

Welspun Enterprises Limited announced plans to buy back up to 25% of its share capital at a price of Rs62/equity share.


The falling yields due to the liquidity flush post-demonetisation is likely to deliver a Rs. 38,200-crore bonanza to the bleeding banks through treasury gains, a report today said. "Softening of yields due to surplus liquidity could help the NPA-saddled banks register Rs. 38,200 crore in potential treasury gains in the current financial year," said the report by India Ratings.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on December 19 no questions would be asked if any amount of demonetised currency is deposited at one go but repeated deposits might raise queries. Yet, depositors are being subjected to a veritable inquisition at some banks. Everyone who wants to deposit more than Rs 5,000 in demonetised notes in a bank account must fill in a form that asks the depositor two questions—Why the amount could not be deposited earlier, and what is your source of funds? This form-filling process is a requirement we found by personally visiting a bank.

The ED has written to about 100 cooperative bank branches across the country seeking details about activities in their dormant accounts and other suspicious transactions as part of its anti-black money probe post demonstration. The Person in knowledge with matter Officials said the agency has sought details from these banks after it got reports about suspicious activities of some huge transactions being reported from the bank accounts in these branches.

In another measure to promote digital payments, the government has directed staterun banks not to charge fees for transactions settled on Immediate Payment Service and Unified Payments Interface in excess of that levied for National Electronic Funds Transfer of over Rs 1,000.

After peaking at nearly Rs. 75,000 crore, Jan Dhan deposits have started to decline even much before the deadline for depositing old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes ends on December 30.

Amid rising decibels of the demonetisation debate banks are silently preparing for an upcoming event: Ind AS 109 or Indian Accounting Standard, a global accounting practice that lenders are mandated to adopt that may lead to initial credit losses. Banks including private sector ones like ICICI, HDFC and Axis are actively working on this as they have submitted estimates for such losses to Reserve Bank of India, which is now expected to come out with fresh guidelines on computation of expected credit losses, a key to banks’ future earnings, three sources familiar with the matter told ET.

Members of All India Bank Officers' Confederation today held demonstrations at various RBI offices, including Mint Road headquarters in Mumbai, demanding adequate cash availability to banks and complete withdrawal of deposit cap rules. Besides Delhi, demonstrations were held at various offices of RBI, including its head offices in Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru and Jaipur.

Banks today began accepting the junked Rs 500/1000 notes in KYC-compliant accounts without any questions following RBI's rollback of its stiff conditions a day after customers were subjected to queries while depositing old currency. With hardly 10 days to go before the deadline ends for depositing the scrapped notes, banks continued to witness rush with tempers flaring occasionally as the RBI notification came during the banking hours, not before the start of the day.

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