Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 19 December 2016

 Gold prices bounced off the previous session's 10-month lows on Friday, but the precious metal still posted its sixth straight weekly decline as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates in the months ahead continued to weigh

 Gold prices bounced off the previous session's 10-month lows on Friday, but the precious metal still posted its sixth straight weekly decline as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates in the months ahead continued to weigh.Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $7.60, or 0.67%, to end the week at $1,137.40 a troy ounce. A day earlier, prices sank to $1,124.30, a level not seen since February 2.For the week, gold futures lost $24.10, or 2.1%, as the U.S. dollar soared after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and signaled it expects to raise rates more quickly than previously anticipated in 2017.The U.S. central bank predicted it would raise interest rates three times in 2017, up from the two hikes predicted in September.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 102.92 late Friday, not far from Thursday's 14-year high of 103.55.Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.Gold prices have slumped since Donald Trump was elected president as rising U.S. bond yields and a rally in stocks markets have damped its appeal.

Silver futures for March delivery climbed 25.7 cents, or 1.6%, on Friday to settle at $16.21 a troy ounce. The contract fell to a six-month low of $15.92 in the prior session. On the week, silver lost 74.4 cents, or 4.4%.In the week ahead, market players will be eyeing the release of Thursday’s final reading on U.S. third quarter gross domestic product for fresh indications on the strength of the economy and further hints on the future path of monetary policy.Meanwhile, market participants will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, with most investors expecting the bank to hold its negative interest rates and 10-year government bond yield target steady.

Oil futures finished higher on Friday, turning positive for the week amid indications that major crude producers are adhering to their promise to pull back on output.On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent Oil for February delivery jumped $1.19, or 2.2%, to settle at $55.21 a barrel by close of trade Friday, not far from a 17-month high of $57.89 touched earlier in the week.London-traded Brent futures logged a gain of 88 cents, or 1.6%, on the week.
Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in February tacked on 98 cents, or 1.9%, to end the week at $52.95 a barrel, within sight of a one-and-a-half-year peak of $54.51 logged on December 12.For the week, New York-traded oil futures rose 40 cents, or 0.8%. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that all Russian oil companies have agreed to cut crude output under Moscow's agreements with members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.In addition, Kuwait reportedly notified customers that it would cut supplies from January as part of an effort by OPEC to stabilize the oil market. OPEC members have agreed to reduce output by a combined 1.2 million barrels per day starting from January 1, their first such deal since 2008.However, there are some worries in the market about production increases in the U.S. and Libya.Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 12 to 510, a level not seen in almost a year.Meanwhile, Libya, which is allowed to ramp up production as part of the OPEC deal, restarted operations at two key oilfields. Libyan officials said the restarting of the oilfields and a connected pipeline could bring back more than 200,000 barrels a day of oil within days.In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Tuesday and Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.Oil traders will also continue to pay close attention to comments from global oil producers for further evidence that producers will stick to their agreement to cut production next year.Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Copper for March delivery slumped 3.6 cents, or 1.4%, on Friday to end at $2.564 a pound after touching a daily low of $2.543, a level not seen since November 30
The outlook for copper is greatly focused on China. Copper consumption will grow as a consequence of overall economic growth. China has been a shining example of overall economic growth, growing at an annual rate of 9.9% between 1980 and 2010. Most forecasts do not have China slowing down anytime soon; the IMF predicts China's economy will expand at an annual rate of 9.7% over the next 5 years. Copper prices are attempting to breakout higher this morning, after declining for the last three consecutive sessions. While today’s upswing in

price has brought the commodity back into positive territory for the week, the commodity is still considered to be technically consolidating on the daily chart. So far Copper prices have not exceed last week’s high of 2.7354. While this does not invalidate the metals ongoing uptrend, it does technically put directional trading on hold until copper prices breakout.

Technically, Copper prices are now testing resistance found at 2.6413. This point is represented graphically as today’s R4 Camarilla pivot, and a move above suggests that the commodity is breaking out higher intraday. If prices continue to push higher, traders may look for the metal to first trade back towards the weekly high at 2.6963, and then potentially the value of daily resistance mentioned previously.In the event of a bearish price reversal, Copper prices should first be seen declining back beneath today’s R3 pivot at 2.6254. A move of this nature would at least temporarily nullify any early bullish momentum, and allow traders to start targeting a price move towards support. Support values include both the S3 and S4 pivots found at 2.5941 and 2.5776. It should be noted that if Copper prices trade below 2.5776, the commodity would set to conclude this week’s trading a new weekly lows.

Informa Economics has increased their 2017 US soybean plantings to 88.862 million acres and slashed the US corn plantings projection to 90.151 million acres.
A rising tide appears to lifting the soybean market. Whether that boat stays float is still an open question right now as the market enters a crucial time.The flood for beans comes from money. Soybeans showed fairly strong correlations to stock prices, crude oil and the dollar over the past month. But two legs of that tripod are beginning to look wobbly, suggesting the money flow story may be losing power.This doesn’t mean the fall soybean rally is history. Fundamentals of supply and demand still rule markets, and those are still fairly positive. USDA announced the sale of another 15.7 million bushels to China Monday, under its daily reporting system for large purchases. Soybean futures surged more than 5% overnight in China, led by a very strong global vegetable oil market..

Futures contracts of turmeric traded mixed where the most active December contract closed higher because of short covering. •Prices of turmeric were unchanged in the key spot market of Erode. At Erode, the bulb variety of turmeric was quoted in the range of 7,500-7,700 rupees per 100 kg, and the finger variety was sold at 8,500-8,700 rupees, both unchanged from the previous close. Arrivals were estimated at 650 bags, down from Tuesday. The benchmark Nizamabad market in Telangana was shut due to a protest carried out by traders. Trade at the market will resume from Monday. Stocks of turmeric in NCDEX certified warehouse as of 29th Nov 2016 declined from previous day to 2269 tonnes.

Futures contracts of coriander hit 3% lower circuit due to likely higher delivery of old stocks nearing expiry. According to data from NCDEX, exchange warehouses hold 14,059 tn of coriander, of which 639 tn will expire on on Jan 5, and 12,517 tn on Feb 5, with deliveries scheduled for Dec-Jan. As a result, buyers are increasingly cutting their positions or avoiding new long positions.Prices of the spice also fell in the spot markets of Rajasthan due to likely increase in supply of the exchange delivered stocks in the next 4-6weeks.
At Kota, the Badami variety was sold at 8,000 rupees per 100 kg, while the Eagle variety was sold at 8,100 rupees, both down 100- 150 rupees from Tuesday.

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