Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 8 august 2016

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 980.34 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10911.57 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.

SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 980.34 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.
Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10911.57 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.
China's copper imports slumped 14 percent to 360,000 tonnes in July from the previous month, customs data showed on Monday, as softer demand in the world's top consumer slowed down buying.
China imported 31.07 million tonnes of crude oil in July, up 1.5 percent from 30.62 million tonnes in the previous month, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs.
Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed money managers, including hedge funds and other speculators, cut their net long position on NYMEX's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude by 31,031 contracts to 80,302 in the week to Aug 2. That was the lowest net long position held in U.S. crude by money managers since the week ended Feb. 23. Managed money's bullish wagers on WTI have fallen by 175,230 contracts over an eightweek span. That is equivalent to more than 175 million barrels in actual supply, given NYMEX's position size of 1,000 barrels per contract.

Precious metal fell as much as 1.7 percent on Friday, as the dollar rose after U.S. data showed employment increased more than expected in July, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year. The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, though gains were muted by strength in the dollar after the previous day's upbeat U.S. jobs data. In addition to the cut in rates to a record low 0.25 percent, the BoE said it would buy 60 billion pounds of government debt to ease the blow from Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union. The ADP report raised speculation that the U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday may be strong enough to revive expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year, after it lifted rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December. Gold fell as much as 1.7 percent on Friday, as the dollar rose after U.S. data showed employment increased more than expected in July, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year.U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 255,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, up from an expectation of 180,000.

Crude oil prices ended little changed on Friday as shortcovering returned in late trading, after some weakness earlier in the session as the U.S. dollar rose on robust U.S. jobs data.Market intelligence firm Genscape reported that stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for U.S. crude futures fell 89,071 barrels during the week to Aug. 2. The Genscape report came after U.S. government data on Wednesday showed a 1.1 million-barrel decline at Cushing in the week to July 29. Data from Iraq's state oil marketer showed the OPEC member's July crude production at its highest since January at 4.6 million barrels per day. U.S. crude inventories rose for a second week in a row, gaining 1.4 million barrels last week, compared with expectations for a decrease of 1.4 million barrels, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Gasoline stocks slumped by 3.3 million barrels, versus forecasts for a 200,000-barrel drop. The large draw assuaged some market participants' worry of a gasoline glut amid the peak U.S. summer driving season. Oil rallied from 12-year lows of $26-$27 in the first quarter to almost $53 in June, boosted initially by expectations, later dashed, that OPEC would freeze output and later by supply outages.Singapore's long hangover from a near-record fuel oil trading binge in March is ending as tonnage traded that month and held offshore moves into landed tanks, signalling a tighter market in the world's biggest trading hub for the shipping fuel. U.S. drillers this week added oil rigs for a sixth consecutive week, according to a closely followed report on Friday, despite crude prices falling to April lows below $40 a barrel this week.

Industrial metal prices fell on Friday as the dollar rose after data showed jobs growth in the United States beat forecasts and raised expectations of higher U.S. interest rates this year.Copper prices plunged by 2.8 percent last week, the most amongst base metals, to close at $4789/tonne as mixed manufacturing data raised doubts about the future course of stimulus measures from China. Official data showed activity in China's manufacturing sector eased unexpectedly in July while unofficial data showed China’s manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in 17 months in July. Also, U.S. manufacturing activity eased in July amid shrinking order backlogs and declining employment. Further, factory orders in the U.S., the largest copper consumer after China, slid 1.5 percent in June, with durable goods orders slipping by the most since December.China's copper imports slumped 14 percent to 360,000 tonnes in July from the previous month, customs data showed on Monday, as softer demand in the world's top consumer slowed down buying.China exported 390,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products, in July, up from June's 380,000 tonnes.As the Philippines' tough-talking new president ratchets up a campaign against irresponsible mining, the suspension of a quarter of the country's nickel mines and the risk of more action to come is spooking global nickel markets. The Southeast Asian nation is China's biggest supplier of nickel ore - used to make stainless steel - and with few alternative suppliers available, the crackdown pushed nickel prices up 13 percent last month.

In line with predictions, the South-West monsoon, the country’s agricultural lifeline, has stayed on course for the first half of the fourmonth season, starting June. The timely and widespread precipitation, after two-successive weak monsoon years, has provided a fillip to crop plantings this kharif season, thereby raising prospects of a good harvest, which has induced a softening trend in prices of many farm commodities. Though the arrival of the monsoon was delayed by about eight days, the swift progress has ensured adequate rainfall across most parts of the country, except pockets such as Gujarat, Kerala and some North-Eastern States. Rainfall in July was 9.8 per cent above normal, while in June it had registered a deficit of 11 per cent. Global models are of the view that for the rest of the season, the monsoon will stay on track, delivering normal to above-normal rains across for many parts of the country. In fact, a long-range forecast for the second-half of the season (AugustSeptember) issued by the India Meteorological Department on Monday said that rainfall is likely to be above normal (106 per cent of the long period average, LPA).
Sowing of kharif crops in the first week of August remained on track as rains continued to be plentiful and acreage under most major crops such as rice, pulses, coarse cereals and oilseeds posted a rise compared to the previous year. Total acreage under kharif crops till August 5 this year at 885.29 lakh hectares (lh) compared to 841.65 lh sowed in the same period last year. Cotton was the only crop where acreage declined considerably to 96.48 lh till August 5 this year compared to 105.68 lh in the same period last year. Many farmers sowing cotton switched to other crops because of last year’s damage to the Bt cotton crop by whiteflies in Punjab and Haryana. Pulse acreage continued to be high with total acreage in the period rising to 121.10 lh (89.72 lh). Rice acreage increased to 281.95 lh (276.10 lh). Sowing of coarse cereals till August 5 rose to 163.77 lh compared to 158.66 lh in the same period of the previous year. Oilseeds acreage too gained at 167.58 lh (157.65 lh). While sugarcane sowing increased marginally from 46.87 lh to 46.11 lh in the same period last year, jute sowing edged down to 7.55 lh to 7.73 lh.

U.S. soybean futures climbed on Thursday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported better-than-expected export sales in the week to July 28. There is a big jump in sales to foreign-based buyers, including larger sales to China, Germany and the Netherlands. Over the past six days the cumulative total of all the bean sales is a massive 2,057,200 tonnes. This is about 4% of the total forecasted [annual] export total. .As on 05 Aug, Indian farmers have planted soybean on 111.8 lh, up by 1 % compared to last year sowing data. The SOPA has estimated decline of soybean acreage by 2.1% on year to 114 lh in 2016-17 (JulJun). Higher acreage in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Telangana has pulled up overall sowing. Madhya Pradesh, the largest grower, have sown the oilseed over 52.6 lh, down 5.2% from a year ago. In Maharashtra, acreage was higher by 14.3% on year at 36.8 lh. In Rajasthan, one of the leading producers of soybean, the sowing area was down by 3.9% on year at 10.2 lh as per respective state government data. Government has raised the tariff value for Crude Soy Oil to 765$ /tonne for first half of August against 752$ earlier. Government fixes the tariff value every fortnight. As per SEA data, Import of soyoil during Jun 2016 increased to 386,145 from 178,064 tonnes in May 2016. Moreover, Import of vegetable oils during Jun 2016 is reported at 11.69 lakh tons (lt) compared to 10.04 lt in May 2015, up 16% due to lower international prices. The overall import of vegetable oils during first eight months of the current oil year 2015-16, Nov.’15 – June’16 is reported at 97.6 lt compared to 88.5 lt i.e. up by 10%.

Jeera futures ended down due to profit booking by market participants, despite higher trade in major spot markets. The spot price for the spice in Unjha traded higher due to fall in daily arrivals and strong demand from overseas markets. Good demand was reported from China and Bangladesh. Exchange deliverable quality jeera was quoted at 19,800 rupees per 100 kg, up 200 rupees from Thursday. Arrivals were pegged at 1,500 bags (1 bag = 55 kg), down from 2,500 bags on Thursday. Stocks of jeera in NCDEX warehouse as of 04th Aug 2016 declined from previous day to 6347 tonnes and 117 tonnes are in process. .According to Dept of Commerce, the exports of Jeera in the first two month of 2016-17 increased by more than 82.5% at 33,908 tonnes compared to last year same time. As per the trade sources, India's jeera exports rose nearly 25% to around 50,000 tonnes in Apr-Jul from 40,000 tn in the year-ago period due to good demand from China and Bangladesh. China imported 1,500-1,700 tn jeera in last 15 days. As per 4thadvance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is pegged at 2.38 lt compared to 1.97 lt in 2014-15. In 2013-14, production was 3.46 lt. Industrial buyers have already sourced sufficient quantity for the domestic requirements but the export demand may pickup due to good demand from China and other countries, as stock levels have been lower. In the next few months, the prices will depend on export

Turmeric contracts ended up tracking gains in spot markets where improved demand supported prices. The most active September contract ended up 0.79% at 8,214 rupees per 100 kg. •The open interest in most active September futures has increased to 17,730 tonnes from 16,820 tonnes Thursday which is indicating buying by market participants. •In Nizamabad, the price traded up at 8,400-8,500 rupees per 100 kg. Arrivals increased to 1,500 bags (1 bag=70 kg), up 500 bags from Thursday. Good demand from Indore, Lucknow and Gwalior too added to the upside in turmeric prices. •Stocks of turmeric in NCDEX warehouse as of 04th Aug 2016 stood unchanged compared to previous day at 6062 tonnes .Turmeric acreage in Telangana as on 3 Aug was up 14.5% at 43,000 hectares as compared to 37,780 hectares last year. Area in AP also higher by more than 5%. The acreage of turmeric is higher compared to normal in both states. As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports in April- May 2016 increased by 31% compared to last year at 21,256 tonnes. In 2015-16, 85,426 tonnes exported compared to 90,738 tonnes in 2014-15. Major export destinations in 2015-16 are Iran, Malaysia, UAE, USA and Sri lanka. The arrivals in the main physical markets such as Nizamabad, Duggirala (AP), Salem, Erode and Sangli reported decreasing. There is expectation of lower arrivals and good upcountry demand may lend support in coming weeks.

Coriander futures extended Thursday's fall ahead of imposition of 5% special cash margin on long position from Monday. The margin will be effective on all running and yet to be launched contracts. The total margin after the special cash margin would be 10% on long positions, and 10% on the short side. The September contract declined for the second straight session as well due to profit booking after it hit a seven month high of 8,561 rupees per 100 kg Wednesday. The most active September contract ended at 8,285 rupees per 100 kg, down 0.97% from the previous close. •Stocks of coriander in NCDEX warehouses as on 04th Aug 2016 increased.

Persistent rain at harvest time is set to cause a late reduction in the European Union’s crop of rapeseed, its main oilseed for edible oil and biodiesel production, experts said on Friday. “Harvest weather has been terrible with repeated rain in the four largest producers France, Germany, Britain and Poland, and we are likely to see crop sizes reduced at the last moment,” one German rapeseed trader said. “The EU’s rapeseed import requirement may be larger than expected next season.” France, which may be the EU’s largest rapeseed producer this year, is set for a crop sharp fall after adverse weather. France’s rapeseed harvest is coming to a close but has been held up in the north by repeated rain since late July.French rapeseed has endured heavy rain, cold spells and limited sunshine during spring.Mustard seed futures closed lower on Friday but closed higher w-o-w on reports of good demand for crushing from industrial buyers. The Aug’16 contract ended 0.67% lower to settle at Rs. 4,898 per quintal. In the recent weeks, mustard prices are moving in sideways to lower on anticipation of good oilseed production in the kharif season.

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