Commodity Report Ways2Capital 18 july 2016

Crude oil prices rose slightly on Friday, ending the week higher, after data from top energy consumers the United States and China boosted the oil demand outlook.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
? GLOBAL UPDATE

Crude oil prices rose slightly on Friday, ending the week higher, after data from top energy consumers the United States and China boosted the oil demand outlook.
Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10842.07 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 962.85 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.
The global nickel market deficit widened to 11,200 tonnes in May, as low prices weighed on refined output from top producer China while demand slowly improved, data from the International Nickel Study Group showed on Friday.

? BULLION
Precious metals prices fell on Friday and were set for its first weekly loss since May on improving global risk sentiment and a stronger dollar after better-than-expected U.S. data. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. The net-long position in gold futures and options fell 5.4 percent to 271,529 contracts in the week ended July 12. A week earlier, the holdings were 286,921, the highest in data going back to 2006. The data released from US on Friday showed that CPI and its core CPI in June were up 0.2 percent as expected while sales and core retail sales at 0.6 and 0.7 percent respectively beat forecasts of 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent. At the same time, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment in July was at 89.5, missing the projection of 93.7 Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by gold fell 2.1 metric tons to 2,001 tons as of Thursday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They were down 5.3 tons for the last week till Thursday. Gold prices are trading under pressure on Monday morning as the failed attempt of military takeover in Turkey had a limited impact on the financial markets, while the robust retail sales and industrial production numbers, pointed towards a strong US economy. Spot gold prices are trading at $1329/ounce lower by 0.60%, while prices dropped 2.3 percent last week to $1,327.40 an ounce, snapping six straight gains. The metal has lost 3.6 percent since reaching the highest in more than two years on July 6.
Hedge funds and money managers again raised their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and options to fresh record highs in the week to July 12, as spot prices hovered near two-year highs, data showed on Friday. The data from US released on Friday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index in July at 0.6 percent was a major miss from the 5.1 estimate. The capacity utilization rate in June stood at 75.4 percent, slightly better than consensus, and industrial production at 0.6 percent beat the expected 0.2 percent. The Dow industrials ended at a record high on Friday and major indexes closed a third consecutive week of gains. Similar positive mood was visible in Asian equities on Monday.

? BASE METAL
Copper prices last week outperformed every metal by posting around 5% gains both at LME and As per Friday’s closing, prices didn’t showed much change at MCX and LME, thus ending the week at $4923/MT and Rs.334/kg respectively Last week, China imports showed decline in monthly figures but still on YoY basis the same moved up on the first half of the year ? Heavy rains in Chile have also halted some mining operations and ports activities, thus anticipating some fall in production figures.some supply disruptions and widening deficit in select metals. Support was seen building in metals as disposable household income in China, adjusted for inflation, rose 6.5 per cent in the first half of the year, compared with economic growth of 6.7 per cent, the statistics bureau reported on Friday. Economic growth in the - second quarter was faster than expected as a government spending spree and a housing boom boosted industrial activity. However, the statistics bureau said on Sunday that although the wages in China kept pace with economic growth in the first half of this year, but maintaining that would be difficult. Prices lost some ground on a late profit booking after the data release from US on Friday, which showed that the Empire State manufacturing index in July at 0.6 percent was a major miss from the 5.1 estimate. The capacity utilization rate in June stood at 75.4 percent, slightly better than consensus, and industrial production at 0.6 percent also beat the expected 0.2 percent. After a decent up move we need to wait and watch, whether the prices would manage to hold the grounds or fresh short positions will bring the equation back to square one.
Nickel prices last week showed weekly gains more than 3% each both at LME and MCX Though, the same declined by around 0.80% at MCX and around 1.40% at LME, ending the week’s session at Rs.686.50/kg and $10205/MT respectively,China’s customs data showed heavy decline in nickel imports, due to which negativity prevailed in the metal, latest release showed that deficit for refined nickel market in May month widened to 11,200 tonnes .As per the data, world production of primary nickel fell to 164,700 tonnes for the month while usage edged up to 175,900tonnes.

? ENERGY
Crude oil prices rose slightly on Friday, ending the week higher, after data from top energy consumers the United States and China boosted the oil demand .North Dakota's oil output rose in May, a surprising increase due to crude prices that inched up during the month, helping to reverse five months of production declines. The second-largest oilproducing state after Texas pumped 1,041,981 barrels of crude per day (bpd) in May, up from 1,047,364 bpd in April, according to the state's Department of Mineral Resources, which reports on a two-month lag.Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Sunday the kingdom always reacts to oil market supply and demand and it would continue to monitor crude markets for any developments.Guards protesting over pay shut the eastern Libyan oil terminal of Hariga on Sunday, delaying two shipments of crude, a port official said. He said the protest had delayed two tankers, one of which was already docked at the port, with the second scheduled to dock later on Sunday. Hariga has an export capacity of about 120,000 barrels per day

NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
India's import of vegetable oils increased by 15 per cent to 11.69 lakh tonnes last month on rising shipments of refined palm oil, industry body SEA said, while seeking change in duty structure to protect domestic processors. Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) demanded that duty difference between crude and refined vegetable oils should be increased from 7.5 per cent to 15 per cent. At present, import duty on crude edible oil is 12.5 per cent and refined edible oil at 20 per cent. "Import of vegetable oils during June, 2016 is reported at 11,69,456 tonnes compared to 10,16,297 tonnes in June, 2015," SEA said in a statement

Excess monsoon rainfall, especially in the last fortnight, has boosted sowing of kharif crops such as rice, pulses, oilseeds and cotton besides improving the water level in 91 key reservoirs across the country. According to ministry of agriculture data released on Friday, kharif sowing so far has surpassed last year’s sowing marginally by 2%.

Indian sugar stockpiles will fall to their lowest in over a decade next year as consumption outstrips supply, but will still be sufficient for the world’s top sugar consumer, India’s sugar millers said. Drought in the past two years in India and in the world’s second-largest sugar producer Thailand has shrivelled sugar cane and cut supply. International sugar futures reach a near four-year high in late June. Indian output in the 2016-2017 crop year should fall to around 23.3 million tonnes, down from 25.1 million tonnes the year earlier due to the drought, said Indian Sugar Mills Association President Tarun Sawhney in an interview with Reuters in Bangkok on Friday. With consumption at 26 million tonnes, India would draw down around 2.7 million tonnes from stocks to leave them at 4.3 million tonnes at the end of the 2016-2017 crop year,Indian sugar prices have surged over 50 per cent since October and contributed to inflation, but Mr.Sawhney said there was no reason for a change in government policy to encourage sugar imports.

? JEERA
Jeera futures were up 1 due to buying at lower levels after prices fell in the last two consecutive sessions. most active August contract ended up 1.34% at 18,965 rupees per 100 kg, after touching a high of 19,040 rupees. prices showed a mixed trade. The exchange deliverable quality jeera in Unjha was up 50-100 rupees at 18,500-18,600 rupees per 100 kg. Arrivals were pegged at 3,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) compared with 4,000 bags on Thursday. Total stocks in NCDEX warehouse as of 15th July 2016 increased from previous day to 4801 tonnes and 597 tonnes are in process. Steady sentiments in the market due to higher domestic demand amid lower arrivals supported the positive trend for jeera futures. Export demand has been steady and hence market recovered from its fall and traded higher. On spot market front, at Unjha market jeera prices traded at Rs.18055/ql. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 4801 tonnes and 597 MT are in process as on 15 July 2016

? TURMERIC
Turmeric futures resumed trade in positive direction anticipating pickup in domestic demand in the coming days. Aug futures closed the trade at Rs.8114/ql, up by 1.99% while Sept futures closed with gains of 2.41% from its previous close. Sowing in Telangana as on 13th July was at 28068 hectares, lower by 4% compared to previous year sowing of 29359 hectares while in AP, sowing area was down by 16% y/y. Slower progress of sowing during the last week also supported the market to trade higher. At Erode market, erode finger traded steady at Rs.8600-8800/ql while bulb variety traded with loss of Rs.100 at Rs.8100-8300/ql with arrivals at 2500 bags. At Duggirala market , turmeric bulb closed lower at Rs. 6315-7725 per quintal, lower by 10.43 per cent from previous trading day. Total arrivals were at 403 quintals, lower by 440 quintals as against previous day. Turmeric finger finished lower at Rs. 6315-7950 per quintal, down by 6.47 per cent against previous trading day. •At Salem market, turmeric bulb traded high at Rs. 7350-8200 per quintal, higher by 0.24 per cent as against previous day. Arrivals remained steady at 1 quintals. Turmeric finger traded high at Rs. 7880-8540 per quintal, up by 0.23 per cent against previous trading day.



? RM SEED
Mustard seed futures continue its uptrend last week due to good demand expected in coming weeks. The Aug’16 contract ended 0.02% higher to settle at Rs. 4,977 per quintal. The mustard prices are moving in sideways to higher on anticipation of limited supplies during the monsoon and good demand for oil from industrial buyers.As per latest USDA report, global rapeseed production for 2016-17 is forecast at 66.5 mt, higher by 389,000 tons this month. Canada production is forecast at 16.4 mt, lower than 2015-16 at 17.2 mt. For Canada, production is forecast 900,000 tons higher. The better 2016- 17 crop outlook for Canada is partially offset this month by a reduction for the EU rapeseed crop, forecast down 600,000 tons to 21.2 mt.

? CORIANDER
Coriander futures gained due to pick up in demand from domestic and overseas buyers. The most active August cardamom contract closed higher tracking the rise in spot price. Futures also gained due to short covering after prices declined in the previous session. Coriander prices in major spot markets of Rajasthan remained steady. The badami machine clean variety was sold at 7,700 rupees per 100 kg. Arrivals in major spot markets in Rajasthan were pegged at 10,500 bags (1 bag = 40 kg), up from 8,500 bags on Thursday. Total stocks of coriander in NCDEX accredited warehouses as on 15th July 2016 declined. Hence, coriander Aug contract ended the day at Rs.7734 per quintal, up by 1.1%. On spot market front, at Kota market, Coriander Eagle variety traded at Rs. 6480 per quintal, up by Rs.80 with total arrivals reported at around 158 tonnes. Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 4165 tonnes and 20 MT are in process as on July 15, 2016.

? SOYABEAN
Soyabean sowing was recorded at 96.6 lh, same as from a year ago as per the government data. Sowing progress in leading soybean producers like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan improved following good rains during July. Soybean acreage in the country is likely to decline 3.5% on year to 11.2 mln ha in 2016-17 (JulJun), as farmers may switch to pulses and coarse cereals in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. There are reports of lesser sowing area but may not affect the yield in the country due to hopes of above normal rains this year. soybean futures fell Friday on forecast of cooler and wetter weather reduces the worries for U.S. crops progress. As per USDA report, prospects for U.S. soybean exports have brightened considerably since January as strong global demand, accompanied by shortfalls in projected South American production. The export forecast for 2016/17 is raised to a record 52.3 mt, 4 % above the previous record set in 2014/15. Soya oil futures closed higher last week tracking international edible oil market. Ref Soy oil Aug’16 expiry closed 0.21% higher to settle at Rs. 634.2/ 10 kg during last week trade. However, sufficient stocks in pipeline and steady demand in the physical market may keep the prices down. Prices have been under pressure due to sufficient supplies in the physical market and weak physical demand, which is indicated by decline in edible oil imports last month. Government revised down the tariff value for Crude Soy Oil to 765$ /tonne against 800$ earlier.



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