Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 13 June 2016

Gold rebounded to a fresh three-week high on Friday, as investor risk aversion lifted appetite for the metal, putting it on track for a second straight weekly rise. Often perceived as an insurance against economic and financial concerns

TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : The Market has opened in Green on Monday, The Nifty up by 8 point or 0.12 per cent at 8228 but below its crucial level of 8250. The US Job creation tumbled in may, US crated 38,000 jobs in May vs. 162,000 expected its is in six year low level. Casting doubt on hopes for strong economic recovery as well as the Fed rate hike decision in this Summer.Although the Fed Chairperson Jennet Yellen is confident about the Economic Recovery and rate hike is possible Gradually she said in statement. This week was eventful with the Reserve Bank of India monetary policy review & the southwest monsoon has reached in the kerala coast as per Indian Meteorological Department prediction. If the Monsoon will be above than normal it will impact the market positively, we believe that if the Nifty is going to Sustain the Level of 8200-8250 can move upward the 8336-8450. The option call put data also Suggest upward move with most call strike is around 8400 and Put strike at 8000. The Strong Levels for The Nifty for Next week is 8150-8220 is downside and 8350-8380 on upside.

BANK NIFTY : - Bank Nifty is opened in positive note on Monday up by 125 points or 0.70 at 17796.S The Federal Reserve chair woman Jennet Yellen affirmed that the central Bank will not be raising the rate until the uncertainties of the economic outlook. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reportedly said that the government is looking only at State Bank of India merging 5 subsidiaries as well as Bharatiya Mahila Bank with itself. The Reserve Bank of India may be poised to throw a lifeline to banks by easing tough bad-loan recognition norms, enforced as part of its asset-quality review, following an improvement in the behavior of some big-ticket borrowers, The global rating Agency Moody’s has estimated, The Indian Bank need funding around 1.20 lakh crore in 2020. The Bank Nifty Crucial level for Next week will be around 17700-17560 is down side 17800-18160.

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
? TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Government will back state-run banks to commercially deal with bad loans - The government will back state-run banks to commercially deal with bad loans that have been a drag on their performance, finance minister Arun Jaitley said."Banks should be empowered and constitutionally protected to conduct commercially prudent settlements," Jaitley said on Monday after a review of the performance of public sector lenders. "Various suggestions have come up for empowering the banks, functioning in an environment, so that they can deal with the situation he said.Bankers will thrash out the framework needed to shield them from decisions on haircuts and the government is fully committed to support the banks in this regard, the minister said.

India pitches for rating upgrade with Fitch - India has pitched for a ratings upgrade with global agency Fitch Ratings, citing improvement in macroeconomic conditions and the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation."We highlighted the overall economic situation and in all the major sectors the challenges which the economy faces and what is the outlook for next year," economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das said after a two hour meeting with the representatives of the agency. Fitch Ratings had in December affirmed India's BBB- rating with a stable outlook, and has forecast 8 per cent growth for 2016-17. BBB- is the lowest investment grade and just a notch above junk grading. Chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian had earlier said the government has pitched for a rating upgrade with Fitch, stating finance ministry is committed to fiscal consolidation path.

Global wealth managers cannot grow without including India: Report - Global wealth managers cannot expand without including India in their growth story as strong GDP growth rate, a huge young population, and an under-served market make it attractive for the segment, says a report."In an economy like India, that has a huge mid- to low-income group, wealth managers simply cannot think of expansion without including them in their growth story," said a Price water house Coopers report titled "Sink or swim: why wealth management can't afford to miss the digital wave". "Strong GDP growth rate, a huge young population, and an under-served market make wealth management an attractive segment in India," Vivek Belgavi, Partner, Financial Services - FinTech and Technology Consulting, PwC India, said on leveraging the technology in wealth management in India.

Speculation on 2nd term for RBI governor Raghuram Rajan refuses to die down - Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan kept the market guessing about his future at the central bank, putting the ball firmly back in the government's court. Governor Rajan came prepared for the question and read out a self-prepared statement to ensure that he didn't fumble for words."It will be cruel of me to spoil all the fun the press is having with all the speculation," Rajan said, with a dash of humour."If you know such cases, the decision is reached after discussion with the government and the incumbent. I am sure you will know when there is news. I will direct you all to the statements of the prime minister and the finance minister. That is all I have to say," he said.

Southwest monsoon to hit Kerala on June 9: IMD - All other criteria being already met, with the expected enhancement in cloudiness over Lakshdweep, the India Meteorological Department says that the onset of the south west monsoon is going to take place by June 9. "In view of strengthening of cross equatorial flow and deepening of westerlies over south Arabian sea and development of feeble off-shore trough along Karnataka-Kerala coast , onset of monsoon over Kerala is very likely by June 9," stated an IMD forecast.

RBI monetary policy: Here's what Raghuram Rajan had to say - The Raghuram Rajan Initial Comments In monetary policy statement of April 2016 we said we will watch macroeconomic and financial developments in the month ahead with a view to responding as space opens up. Incoming data since then show a sharp and unexpected upsurge in inflationary pressures emanating from a number of food items as well as the rise in commodity prices. We expect that a strong monsoon, astute food management as well as steady expansion in supply capacity especially in services could help offset these upward pressures. But, given the uncertainties, the Reserve Bank will stay on hold. However the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and we will monitor macroeconomic and financial developments finding further scope for policy action. We will shortly review the Marginal Cost Lending Rate framework to iron out any issues and we believe that timely capital infusion into constrained public sector banks will aid credit flows he said.

India to be US$ 5 trillion economy in few years: Arun Jaitley - Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said. Very hopeful of getting the Constitution Amendment Bill on GST passed in the next session of Parliament, Minister of Finance, Corporate Affairs and Information & Broadcasting said, while addressing a very large gathering of Japanese Business leaders at a Seminar titled “India: Investment Promotion Seminar” in Osaka, organized by CII in partnership with the Indian Embassy in Japan, JETRO, Kankeiren, JICA and Osaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry here today. With the kind of reforms that have picked up pace, the Indian economy is well on course to touch USD 5 trillion in size in the foreseeable future, Mr Jaitley said. India’s failure at controlling population has resulted in the creation of a very large and young population, which is not only one of the largest markets of the world, but also a potential supplier of trained and skilled human resources for the world, which is one of the reasons why the size of the Indian diaspora has been increasing in most countries, Jaitley said.

Rate cut transmission to influence credit profile: Moody's - On a day when the Reserve Bank left its key policy rates unchanged, Moody's Investors Service has said the transmission of interest rate cuts will influence India's economic development and credit profile. Saying that status quo on monetary policy was broadly in line with market expectations, Moody's said there could be some short-lived spikes in inflation, driven by food prices."Looking forward, we do not expect a significant change in the monetary policy stance. Rather, the transmission of monetary policy will influence India's economic development and credit profile," Moody's Investors Service said.


? TOP ECONOMY NEWS
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said India’s economy has become “stronger” and government is trying to bridge the gaps. Jaitley refused to make any direct comment in regards to expectations from RBI, but said government was trying to improve the health of the banks so that they can support the “growth” of the economy, says report. Jaitley will have a meeting with CEOs of public sector banks to discuss various key challenges facing the banking sector including growing non-performing assets, a day before the RBI carries out bi-monthly review of the monetary policy.

India has now turned coal surplus and there are no shortages at the power plant for the fossil fuel. In the case of Renewable, Power minister exuded confidence that India will attain the National Solar Mission target of 20,000MW by 2017, five years ahead of schedule.

Companies have raised over Rs. 1 trillion of debt through private placements of bonds, according to data with SEBI. There were 314 issues in April totaling Rs. 410.78 billion while May had 272 issues worth Rs. 598 billion.

Government will come out with revised IIP and WPI indices by the end of this year with a new base year of 2011-12 in order to make them more representative of the changing economic scenario.

To reduce import, the Government of India has decided to establish three bulk drugs and three medical devices parks, which will entail a combined investment of Rs. 600 billion.

Industrial output growth in the country disappointed at -0.8% in April 2016, pulled down by the manufacturing sector, which contracted by 3.1% over the same month in 2015.

India's foreign exchange reserves hit a record high at USD 363.46 billion for the week ended June 3, mostly due to the central bank taking delivery of its forward-dollar contracts and dollar buying in spot foreign exchange markets.

The power regulator has allowed power plants owned by central and state power utilities to swap coal for its efficient usage and reduction of transportation charges, a move that will lead to lowering of electricity tariffs.

Centre’s indirect tax mop-up rose by 33% in May likely led by high excise collections, signaling a pick-up in economic activity.

Reserve Bank has canceled registration of three NBFCs including Escorts Finance, Express Trading & Securities and Jayant Security & Fin.

? TOP CORPORATE NEWS -
Larson & Toubro has announced that it has signed contract to build stadium in Qatar for 2022 FIFA World Cup. L&T ended at Rs. 1488.05, up by Rs. 19.95 or 1.36% from its previous closing of Rs. 1468.1 . The scrip opened at Rs. 1469.1 and touched a high and low of Rs. 1499.95 and Rs. 1461.55 respectively. A total of 2484293 shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs. 138687.45 crore.

Hindustan Unilever Limited is aiming to become the largest e-commerce player in the grocery/FMCG segment soon.

BHEL Limited announced the commissioning of all the 3 super critical units of the 1980 MW coal-based Lalitpur Super Thermal Power Project in Uttar Pradesh within a span of just 85 days.

NTPC Limited does not have any plans now to buy back its own shares, given the company’s low cash position and ambitious capital expenditure plan.

Lenders to Essar Steel have asked the company to prepare a new debt repayment plan. Bank officials will meet later this month to examine the company's proposal to repay loans of around Rs. 400 billion.

Five subsidiaries of Coal India Limited will buy back up to 25% of their shares from the parent so that the coal monopoly can go ahead with its own share buyback offer to the government and the public.

Tata Steel West Bokaro Division has inaugurated 'High Wall Mining', a unique coal mining initiative that provides a solution to mine coal that is blocked coal safely in barriers.

Insecticides India Limited is planning to bring some products from Japan and the US to the Indian market.

Ramky Infrastructure it has bagged orders worth Rs. 612.88 crore for road projects in Chhattisgarh and Punjab.

Strides Shasun has received Establishment Inspection Report from the US health regulator on closure of inspection of its oral dosage facility at Bengaluru.

IOC, BPCL and HPCL have struck a temporary deal with Reliance Industries and Essar Oil to resume buying petrol and diesel from private refiners on revised terms.

Alstom Bharat Forge Power Private Ltd , the joint venture company between GE and Bharat Forge Limited, has signed a contract worth Rs. 14.95 billion with NTPC. The company will supply two units of 800Mw ultra-super critical steam turbine generator islands on EPC basis, along with related civil work for the Telangana Super Thermal Power Project phase 1 near Ramagundam in Karimnagar district.

Godrej Properties has partnered with AR Landcraft to develop 100 acre township project in Greater Noida.

Equitas Holdings, has floated a new subsidiary called Equitas Technologies Private, which is creating an electronic platform to bring together truck owners and those who want to transfer goods.

A consortium led by GMR Infrastructure has bagged Rs. 28.80 billion contract for developing a 221-kilometer stretch of the Eastern arm of the Dedicated Freight Corridor project on Engineering, Procurement and Construction basis.

DLF Limited, facing a debt burden of over Rs. 220 billion, is looking to divest 40% stake in its rental assets arm — DLF Cyber City Developers — and hopes to zero-in on a partner in two-three months.

Mylan and Biocon Limited have said that the recent trial data has further confirmed the efficacy and safety of their breast cancer drug MYL-1401O, a development that validates the quality of biosimilar drugs for cancer patients.

NMDC and MOIL will buy back 25% of their paid-up equity.

Wipro wishes to take forward a plan to revive a special economic zone project in West Bengal.

The Debt Recovery Tribunal advised State Bank of India to consider the option of adjusting Rs. 20 billion deposited by Vijay Mallya in the high court against loans taken to run the now-defunct Kingfisher Airlines.

Rajesh Exports Limited has secured a Rs. 6.53 billion export order for gold and diamond studded jewelry from Singapore.

ABB opened its Global Business Service center in Bengaluru.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries had entered the dermatology segment as part of an initiative to further expand its retail offerings.

Adani Enterprises is in the process of setting up a copper smelter project with a capacity of 1mt/pa at an investment of Rs. 100 billion at Adani Port Special Economic Zone in Gujarat.

JSW Energy has taken part in the recent tender floated by the Power Company of Karnataka in which bids were opened.
Koovs said Indian newspaper publisher HT Media invested GBP3mn (around Rs290mn) in the company for an 8.2% stake.

Lupin Limited is recalling over 54,000 vials of anti-bacterial injection Ceftriaxone manufactured at its Mandideep facility in Madhya Pradesh due to violation of current good manufacturing norms.

MRPL and Indian Oil Corporation, which last month paid USD 750 million to Iran, paid another USD330 million this month through EIH bank.

The Central Drugs Standard Control Organization has found Alkem Labs' anti-diabetic drug Glimekem to be of sub-standard quality.

Infosys would provide its core banking solution Financial to e-commerce platform Paytm for its payments bank business.


? TOP BANKING AND FINANCIAL NEWS OF THE WEEK
The Oriental Bank of commerce to be is growing the Credit Growth of 12 Per cent in this year for Corporate lending the lender has said that they are planning to reach in 12 per cent growth in this year.

Axis Bank Limited raised USD 500 million at the London Stock Exchange after it launched India's first internationally-listed certified green bond to finance climate change solutions around the world.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan today said he is not "overly perturbed" by surrender of Payments Bank license by some companies but indicated that there could be a mechanism to ensure that entities apply for license after due diligence as there is a cost involved in vetting them.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reportedly said that the government is looking only at State Bank of India merging 5 subsidiaries as well as Bharatiya Mahila Bank with itself.“We are looking at SBI at the moment.The government’s policy by and large supports consolidation, " says Jaitley.

The Reserve Bank of India may be poised to throw a lifeline to banks by easing tough bad-loan recognition norms, enforced as part of its asset-quality review, following an improvement in the behavior of some big-ticket borrowers, said two people with knowledge of the plan.

Private sector lender Yes Bank Limited said it has received shareholders ' nod for raising around Rs 16,700 crore through issuance of various instruments in one or more tranches. "The shareholders have approved through special resolution to raise capital aggregating up to $1 billion around Rs.6,700 crore by issue of shares or convertible securities in one or more tranches in the course of domestic and/or international offerings," Yes Bank spoke person said.

HDFC Bank Limited reduced one-month marginal cost lending rate to 8.95 percent from 9%, according to reports. Housing Development Finance Corporation Bank Limited ended at Rs. 1174.2, up by Rs. 3.2 or 0.27% from its previous closing of Rs. 1171 on the NSE.


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